Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 114.082 | EURUSD 1.16585 | AUDUSD 0.77135 | NZDUSD 0.69195 | USDCAD 1.28086 | USDCHF 0.99937 | GBPUSD 1.30588 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16663 | 1.16544
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 114.085 | 113.887
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30777 | 1.30475
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99959 | 0.9980
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.77155 | 0.76816
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28163 | 1.28018
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69403 | 0.69082
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16515 | 1.1641
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89346 | 0.89176
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 132.995 | 132.813
For today
- EUR: A very quiet session opening around the 1.1655 areas and managing to push only through the 1.1665 are before dipping back lower again and ranging quietly through the Tokyo session. Very limited day for news for the Eurozone, topside offers into the 1.1700 areas with congestion through the level and possibly only minor stops on a push through, congestion continues into the stronger 1.1750 areas with light congestion through the 1.1760 levels before moving into some reasonable congestive offers around the 1.1800 areas. Downside bids through the 1.1650 level and into the stronger 1.1600-1.1580 areas with possible strong stops appearing on a dip through the 1.1570 levels for and the market open to sentimental bids around 1.1550 and 1.1500.
- GBP: A slow rise from the opening levels and moving quietly through to the 1.3075 areas and holding through to the grey hour in that area, Harry Hindsight is excellent for pointing out the obvious after the fact however, the market was not expecting the strongly dovish commentary that came with yesterday’s hike, today has started to see some slow buying in the market and the offers into the 1.3100 areas are likely to be light and still forming, a push through will see some weak stops appearing on the move back through and the market open to the 1.3200 levels with very little to slow it, however the market could see some residual offers from yesterday in the market and possibly taking the edge of a quick rally to slow the ascent from that point however, any push higher will still find limited resistance to the move for the moment. Downside bids into the 1.3050 areas with weak stops appearing on a push through the level and the market possibly seeing stronger selling as the market moves through the 1.3000 level with congestion possibly around the level, however a strong push would likely see the market opening up to further selling and the 1.2900 areas vulnerable, even though interest rates have gone up by 0.25%
- JPY: USDJPY slipped a little lower from the opening to test lightly around the 113.90 areas before returning to the 114.00 levels trading around the level to the grey hour, strong offers remain to the topside into the 114.50 levels with the weak stops likely through the 114.60 areas and leaving the 115.00 level vulnerable to a strong push possibly, a push through the level will likely see further stops appearing with stronger offers likely to move into the market around the 115.50 areas. Downside bids light through to the 113.50 level and even here the market is not likely to improve that much with some minor support on a run to the 113.20 areas and stronger congestion through to the 113.00 areas, weak stops may appear through the level however, these are likely to be absorbed by bids through to the better support into the 112.50 levels and ultimately into 112.00
- AUD: The biggest mover of the day with the market opening around the 0.7715 areas and holding through into the Tokyo session, the release of a weak retail sales number saw the Oz drop quickly through to the 0.7685 areas and range through the balance of the session around that level. Downside bids light through to the 0.7650 areas and some congestive bids in the area, a strong push through the 0.7640 level will open up a renewed push for the congested 75 cent level with better bids likely below the 76 cent areas. Topside offers light back through the 77 cent areas with better offers likely to be in the 0.7740-60 areas and increasing from there into 78 cent.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
USD:
US B1-B bombers supported by Japanese and S. Korean fighters flew close to the Korean peninsula
Not a response to current events and planned in advance
Treasury further restricts N. Korea access to US Financial system
Mnuchin: We need to have tax bill before the President this year
Mnuchin: House tax bill is bold and pro-growth
Companies may use repatriated funds to extinguish debt over increasing business investments
NZD:
Auckland house price falls as buyers remain cautious Barfoot
JPY:
Overseas investors increase holdings of Japanese stock Nikkei
GBP:
Low interest rates haven’t averted disaster only delayed the reckoning of the west UKT
Different reading by the FT with headlines highlighting BoE signalling more to come
AUD:
Australia Sep retail sales unchanged MoM vs. 0.4% expectations
EUR:
Spain issues arrest warrant for Catalan leader
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Sep A 0.00% | C 0.40% | P -0.60%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Caixin PMI Services Oct A 51.2 | C 50.8 | P 50.6
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Oct C 53.3 | P 53.6
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Sep C -2.95B | P -3.41B
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Change in Employment Oct C 15.5K | P 10.0K
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Oct C 6.20% | P 6.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Sep C -43.5B | P -42.4B
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Non-farm Payrolls Oct C 310K | P -33K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Oct C 4.20% | P 4.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Hourly Earnings M/M Oct C 0.20% | P 0.50%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite Oct C 58.5 | P 59.8
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Factory Orders Sep C 1.20% | P 1.20%
Â
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Limited day for the Euro taking second fiddle to the UK rate decision, Mixed PMI numbers across the early London session, with the market making early gains in Asia to test above the 1.1670 level and then drifting through to hold the 1.1650 levels into the London session, the release of the PMI numbers saw the market weaken a little testing through to the opening levels around the 1.1625 areas and then starting a slow climb through the day and into the NYK session pushing towards the 1.1670 level again before the NYK session started, the open of NYK saw selling moving in however, the market again moved higher breaking through the highs and pushing to the 1.1685 level before slipping back and holding around the 1.1655 areas through to the close.
- GBP: Opening around the 1.3240 levels the market steadily rose through the Asian session pushing in early hours to the 1.3300 areas before drifting back and holding in the London session around the 1.3280 area, the move to the rate decision saw the market drift as some covered their long positions and the rate rise priced into the market, the market tested the 1.3200 levels before the release and on the release saw the market push quickly to the 1.3280 areas and then dropped back quickly as the dovish commentary followed the event with the market quickly testing the 1.3100 levels and holding for several hours into the NYK session before slipping through the level as the London session finished for the day, the market dipped quietly through to the 1.3050 areas and based along that line through to the end of the day.
- JPY: The day started with some strong selling once the USDJPY moved into the Tokyo session dropping quickly from the opening around the 114.15 areas and dipping through to the 113.75 level, the market recovered a little to trade through to the grey hour around the 113.90 areas before starting a limited recovery back to the opening levels the push through to the NYK session saw the highs tested through the 114.20 areas again before dropping quickly back to make the lows through the 113.55 level with some weak stops triggered along the way, the market bounced off the lows and into the London close the market returned to the opening levels to trade out quietly holding just below the open.
- AUD: A quiet opening saw the Oz rise quickly as the USD suffered from quick weakness across the market and the Oz initially pushed to the 77 cent level before running a second time to push the 0.7720 level and holding around that level through to the London session and dipping slowly through to hold the 77 cent levels into the NYK session, the move into late London saw USD weakness appear again and the market testing through towards the 0.7730 areas before drifting through to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Monetary Base Y/Y Oct A 14.50% | C 15.70% | P 15.60%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Sep A 1.75B | C 1.20B | P 0.99B | R 0.87B
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Approvals M/M Sep A 1.50% | C -1.00% | P 0.40%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Oct A 44.5 | C 43.6 | P 43.9
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SECO Consumer Confidence Oct A -2 | C 0 | P -3
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Real Y/Y Sep A -0.40% | C 0.30% | P -0.20% | R -1.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Manufacturing PMI Oct A 57.8 | C 56.5 | P 56.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Oct (F) A 56.1 | C 56.7 | P 56.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Change Oct A -11K | C -10K | P -23K
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Claims Rate Oct A 5.60% | C 5.60% | P 5.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Oct (F) A 60.6 | C 60.5 | P 60.5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct (F) A 58.5 | C 58.6 | P 58.6
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction PMI Oct A 50.8 | C 48.5 | P 48.1
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Oct A -3.00% | P -27.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Bank Rate A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.25%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target A 435B | C 435B | P 435B
GBP      MPC Official Bank Rate Votes A 7–0—2 | C 9–0—0 | P 2–0–7
GBP      MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes A 0–0—9 | C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Bank of England Inflation Report
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 28) A 229K | C 235K | P 233K | R 234K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Nonfarm Productivity Q3 (P) A 3.00% | C 2.50% | P 1.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unit Labour Costs Q3 (P) A 0.50% | C 0.40% | P 0.20% | R 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 65B | C 63B | P 64B
Good Luck,
Andy
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