Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 114.009 | EURUSD 1.15868 | AUDUSD 0.76448 | NZDUSD 0.68979 | USDCAD 1.27775 | USDCHF 0.99996 | GBPUSD 1.3167 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16063 | 1.15855
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 114.050 | 113.64
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31761 | 1.31623
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00130 | 0.99809
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76591 | 0.76405
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.27805 | 1.27591
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69196 | 0.6898
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.15946 | 1.15799
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88104 | 0.87998
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 132.119 | 131.80
For today
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1590 levels the Sydney market was quick to push the Euro through to the 1.1605 levels before moving into the Tokyo session drifting off those highs to hold through the session into the grey hours around the 1.1595 areas, Topside offers through the 1.1700 areas are likely to be light with increasing offer likely into the 1.1740-60 areas with possible weak stops through the level and the market likely to see some further congestive offers into the 1.1800 areas, with some light stops possible before running into stronger offers in the 1.1850 area. Downside bids likely to be light through the 1.1550 areas with some sentimental bids likely to appear on a move through to the 1.1500 areas and weak stops on a move through the 1.1480, and then further weakness into the 1.1420-1.1380 level bids.
- GBP: Cable rose slowly through the Sydney session however; the gains were meagre at best pushing to the 1.3175 levels and then drifting around the 1.3170 areas through to the grey hours in a quiet session, Topside offers into the 1.3180-1.3200 levels more congestive than anything else with possible weak stops on a push through the 1.3220 level to open up another run towards the 1.3300 levels with only minor offers likely around the 1.3250 areas, offers around the 1.3300 levels likely to be stronger, no data today for Cable or Euro so it may struggle for movement. Downside bids light through the 1.3100 levels with better bids likely to be in the 1.3050 level and possibly continuing through to the 1.3000 areas, strong stops on a move through the level could see the market dropping off quickly into the 1.2920 areas.
- JPY: USDJPY dropped off from the opening 114.00 levels with the market dipping through to the 113.65 areas on a move into the Tokyo session, the market then ranged narrowly through the session around the 113.80 areas once the move was over moving into the grey hours quietly, Topside offers likely weak through the 114.00 areas and then increasing as the market moves towards the 114.60 with weak stops likely through the level however, strong offers are likely through to the 115.00 areas if the market could push through the level then strong stops are likely to appear and the 115.50 areas become vulnerable with a break opening up a larger move. Downside bids light through to the 113.20 areas with possible weak stops on a dip through the 113.50 areas exposing those weak bids,
- AUD: Opening a little weaker the Oz rebounded in early trades from the 0.7640 area to test above the 0.7655 level, the market held deep into the session before dipping back into the 0.7640’s and struggling through to the grey hours holding the 0.7650 areas. Topside offers into the 77 cent level likely to be reasonable strong with very little stops until beyond the 0.7730 areas and the market opening quickly to the 0.7775 that has seen support and resistance on several occasions, possibly stronger offers from that point into the 78 cent areas, downside bids into the 0.7640 levels a push through to test the 0.7620 areas is likely to see weak stops and the market then opening for a push through the 76 cent area and possible weak stops appearing
Overnight News                                                                 Â
SAR:
Saudi crackdown is said to widen as more bank accounts frozen
CNY:
China Safe says China’s forex reserves to remain overall stable
China Oct Exports rise 6.1% YoY in Yuan terms, Est 7.0% rise 6.9% YoY in USD terms Est 7.1%
China Oct imports rise 15.9% YoY in Yuan terms Est 17.5% rise 17.2% YoY in USD terms Est 17.0%
China Oct trade balance 254.5B Yuan, Est 280.5B Yuan
Iron ore imports by top buyer collapse as steel curbs to kick in
USD:
Senate said to mull full repeal of state, local tax deductions
Senate Republican leaders considering delay in corporate tax cut – Washington post
Builders, Lenders and brokers say removing incentives to home ownership will hurt their businesses
Trump: N. Korea a hell no person deserves
Trump: America does not seek conflict, confrontation
Trump: Anyone who doubts strength of US should look to past
Trump: It is our duty to confront this danger together
CAD:
BoC governor not worried about expectation for low inflation
EUR:
Key ECB policy makers are said to have challenged QE pledge
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (USD) Oct A 38.2B | C 39.5B | P 28.5B
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CNY) Oct A 254B | C 275B | P 193B
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index Sep (P) A 106.6 | C 106.6 | P 107.2
13:15Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Oct C 220K | P 217K
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Sep P -5.50%
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -2.4M
20:00Â Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBNZ Rate Decision C 1.75% | P 1.75%
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A very quiet day for the most part with the market opening around the 1.1610 levels and testing to the 1.1615 several times through the session and unable to push much beyond the 1.1605 areas through to the grey hours, the move towards the London session saw a slow and steady push lower with the market increasing its fall as the German IP numbers were released to the market, the move into London saw the market dropping to the 1.1550 areas before finding some support and holding the level through into the NYK session, with no US data the market saw a steady rise higher through the session testing aback to the 1.1590 areas into the close.
- GBP: Cable struggled through the first half of the day and into the NYK session, opening around the 1.3170 levels the market struggled for direction through the Asian session, the market remained in a very tight range through to early London with the market eventually breaking through the 1.3150 level quickly and trading around the level in a larger range into NYK, NYK saw steady selling through to make lows into the 1.3110 areas with limited bids through to that level the move off the lows saw the market testing quickly to the 1.3140 areas and then after a brief pause move back above the 1.3150 levels, the market eventually pushed higher through the balance of the session to close just off the opening levels.
- JPY: The USD saw a steady rise through the first half of the day with the market opening on its lows the USDJPY rose steadily through to the grey hour pushing from the 113.70 areas to test the 114.00 level, the move towards the London session saw the market pushing through the level and testing to the 1.1415 areas before stalling into the London opening and eventually finding its feet again and making the highs for the day around the 114.35 level, the market then drifted through into the NYK session slipping back to hold around the 114.10 areas with very little direct action for the pair, option expiry in NYK saw the market drop back away from the 114.30 areas and quickly test the 114.00 level before taking a second a run and triggering weak stops on a test to the 113.85 level and remaining around 113.80 through to the last couple of hours before pushing back to the figure.
- AUD: The Oz held steady through to the rate decision, opening around the 0.7690 areas the market traded around the level and drifted back to the 0.7680 into RBA announcement, the no change saw the market test quickly to the 77 cent level before dropping back again to the 0.7680 and that was it for the rate decision, the market moved lower through into the London session testing slowly through to the NYK opening to the 0.7650 levels and light bids holding through until close to the NYK option expiry dipping through to the 0.7630 areas before rising slowly through the balance of the session to the 0.7645 areas.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Labour Cash Earnings Y/Y Sep A 0.90% | C 0.50% | P 0.90% | R 0.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Oct A -1.00% | C 0.90% | P 1.90%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Rate Decision A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Industrial Production M/M Sep A -1.60% | C -0.80% | P 2.60%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Oct A 742B | P 724B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail PMI Oct A 51.1 | P 52.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Sep A 0.70% | C 0.60% | P -0.50% | R -0.10%
Good Luck,
Andy
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