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All the latest business and technology views and insights on the FX industry from LMAX Exchange management and staff

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Daily FX Market Commentary

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 113.051 | EURUSD 1.17694 | AUDUSD 0.75876 | NZDUSD 0.68538 | USDCAD 1.27569 | USDCHF 0.99414 | GBPUSD 1.31936 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.18219 | 1.17656

USDJPY                 113.146 | 112.393

GBPUSD               1.32441 | 1.31902

USDCHF               0.99427 | 0.99031

AUDUSD              0.76083 | 0.75677

USDCAD               1.27610 | 1.27136

NZDUSD               0.68838 | 0.68361

EURCHF                1.17227 | 1.16953

EURGBP               0.89288 | 0.89127

EURJPY                 133.165 | 132.809

 

For today

  • EUR: The subpoena to Trumps campaign officials saw the USD dropping quickly on the move into the Tokyo session added to the cut of purchases in short term bonds saw the Euro traded from the 1.1765 level lows and a test through to the 1.1820 areas before holding briefly and then drifting to the 1.1805 areas, Topside offers into the 1.1820 level with congestion likely to continue through to the 1.1860 levels however, the market is still likely to remain offered into the 1.1880-1.1900 levels with weak stops possibly appearing beyond the 1.1910 level and market congestion limited until the 1.1950 areas, Downside bids light through the 1.1750 areas and possibly continuing to the 1.1700-1.1680 levels before stops start to appear and the market again opens to challenge the 116.00 areas and slightly stronger bids.
  • GBP: The Cable started to rise through the 1.3200 in slow trading into Tokyo however, the BoJ announcement saw the market quickly push through the 1.3220 levels and trigger weak stops as it pushed to above the 1.3240 level before finding some offers and then drifting back to hold around the 1.3230 levels into the grey hours, topside offers see congestion around the 1.3250 levels for the moment with possible weak stops however, one would suspect any reasonable stops are not until the market has tested and pushed through the 1.3300 areas with the market likely to opening up to a challenge of the 1.3400 level if it can push beyond 1.3320 areas, with media hysteria over one vote or another and a decidedly dodgy reporting strategy the market seems to be far more objective on the subject, with no real data for the UK the day is likely to see early trading doing the bulk of the movement, Downside bids still a little weak around the 1.3200 areas and possibly stronger bids on a test back to the 1.3150 level and then weakness appearing as the market sees limited congestion for the time being.
  • JPY: USDJPY rose from the opening to above the 113.10 areas before dropping initially on the US subpoena news and then having dipped to the 112.90 level the market again dropped lower this time down to the 112.40 area before holding quietly around the 112.50 areas, downside bids into the 112.00 levels however, the big news on a less easy money in the system will likely see weak stops through the 111.80 levels with limited bids on a drop back towards 111.00 and nothing special until 110.50 with possibly stronger bids into that area however, it has to get through to the 111.80 level first, Topside offers light through to the 113.00 areas with stronger offers around the 113.50 area and plenty of congestion in between.
  • AUD: Opening around the 0.7590 areas the weaker USD saw the Oz rising through towards the 0.7610 level before the BoJ announcement and the market quickly dropping back as strong AUDJPY selling kicked in and the Oz fell back to the 0.7570 level before finding some support for a quiet move into the grey hours, Topside offers through the 76 cent areas are likely to continue through to the 0.7620 level before weak stops are likely to appear, a test of which could possibly see those stops absorbed by congestive offers through to the 0.7640-60 levels and then stronger offers on any attempt to the 77 cent level, Downside bids into the 0.7560-40 areas and while there is possibly congestion through to the 75 cent level any stops are likely to be close to the figure level and opens the market through to the sentimental levels with key levels likely just below 74 cents.

 

Overnight News                                                                  

USD:

Mester says FED should reassess its inflation target

Special counsel Mueller issued subpoena for Russia related documents from Trump campaign officials

CNY/AUD:

Record China-Ozzie yield spread

AUD:

RBA way wrong on unemployment

JPY:

BoJ cuts purchases of 1 to 3 year bonds to 30B Yen

CAD:

US payroll firm challenges statistics Canada with alternative employment data

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

NZD       Business NZ Manufacturing PMI Oct A 57.2 | P 57.5 | R 57.6

NZD       PPI Input Q/Q Q3 A 1.00% | C 1.20% | P 1.40%

NZD       PPI Output Q/Q Q3 A 1.00% | C 1.40% | P 1.30%

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Sep C 30.2B | P 33.3B

13:30     CAD       CPI M/M Oct C 0.10% | P 0.20%

13:30     CAD       CPI Y/Y Oct C 1.40% | P 1.60%

13:30     CAD       CPI Core – Common Y/Y Oct P 1.50%

13:30     CAD       CPI Core – Trim Y/Y Oct P 1.50%

13:30     CAD       CPI Core – Median Y/Y Oct P 1.80%

13:30     USD       Housing Starts Oct C 1.19M | P 1.13M

13:30     USD       Building Permits Oct C 1.25M | P 1.23M

 

Harry Hindsight

  • EUR: A reasonably quiet session range wise with the market dipping from the opening to the 1.1770 level before recovering towards the 1.1785 area as the market moved into the Tokyo session fully, the rest of Tokyo was quiet with the market rising to the 1.1800 area as it moved into the grey hours but struggled at the level and eventually dipped back to the lows into the London session, Eurozone CPI numbers were in line with expectations unerringly so and the Euro drifted through to the NYK session testing the 1.1760 level and struggling through to the close unable to break beyond the 1.1780 levels.
  • GBP: A quiet range through the Asian session with the market moving off the 1.3160 level into the Tokyo session and spiking towards the 1.3190 area before settling down to base along the 1.3170 level through to the grey hours, the move into the London session saw the market dropping quickly lower to test through the 1.3140 level before starting a steady rise through into the official opening, the market continued to rally and better than expected retail sales helped the market to move steadily through to the 1.3200 areas and holding through to the close of the session just below the level.
  • JPY: USDJPY had a very limited day overall with the market opening around the 112.80 levels close to the lows of the day and rose into the Tokyo session to a quiet move to the 113.10 areas and into the grey hours, the move to the London session saw the market rising through the 113.25 levels and after a short period rose again to make the highs above 113.30, the move through London was a slow drift and only once the market moved into the NYK session did the market see some movement and a dip through to the lows again and a repeat of the steady rise through to finish the day above the 113.00 level.
  • AUD: A quiet opening with the market moving into the Tokyo session holding the 0.7590 levels, unemployment numbers initially dipped on the weaker employment change however, the market was within the details and the bulk of the rise was to full time numbers and the market reacted to test quickly through to the 0.7610 level having touched the 0.7570 level on the dip. The market saw limited movement from that point on with the market holding just below the 76 cent areas through to the London session with early London selling the market back a little however, the market again rose to hold just below the 76 cent areas and continued to trade in that area through to the close.

 

Yesterday’s premiership results

AUD       Consumer Inflation Expectation Nov A 3.70% | P 4.30%

AUD       Employment Change Oct A 3.7K | C 18.9K | P 19.8K | R 26.6K

AUD       Unemployment Rate Oct A 5.40% | C 5.50% | P 5.50%

GBP       Retail Sales M/M Oct A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P -0.80%

EUR        Eurozone CPI M/M Oct A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.40%

EUR        Eurozone CPI Y/Y Oct (F) A 1.40% | C 1.40% | P 1.50%

EUR        Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Oct (F) A 0.90% | C 0.90% | P 0.90%

CAD       Manufacturing Sales M/M Sep A 0.50% | C -0.20% | P 1.60% | R 1.40%

CAD       International Securities Transactions (CAD) Sep A 16.81B | C 10.68B | P 9.85B | R 9.77B

USD       Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 11) A 249K | C 234K | P 239K

USD       Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Nov A 18.9 | C 24.1 | P 27.9

USD       Import Price Index M/M Oct A 0.20% | C 0.40% | P 0.70%

USD       Industrial Production M/M Oct A 0.90% | C 0.50% | P 0.30% | R 0.40%

USD       Capacity Utilization Oct A 77.00% | C 76.30% | P 76.00% | R 76.40%

USD       NAHB Housing Market Index Nov A 70 | C 67 | P 68

USD       Natural Gas Storage A -18B | C -15B | P 15B

 

Good Luck,

Andy

 

 

 

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