Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.621 | EURUSD 1.17325 | AUDUSD 0.7550 | NZDUSD 0.6811 | USDCAD 1.28199 | USDCHF 0.99349 | GBPUSD 1.32345 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.17446 | 1.17304
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.704 | 112.506
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32496 | 1.32346
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99390 | 0.99265
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75581 | 0.75321
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28196 | 1.28045
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68200 | 0.67892
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16634 | 1.16508
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88680 | 0.88587
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 132.268 | 132.043
For today
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1730 areas the market lifted steadily higher to the 1.1745 levels before dropping back again as early papers hit the market and talk about new elections doing the rounds, however, overall the market traded in a narrow band and settled in to trade just below the 1.1740 level through to the grey hours, Topside offers into the 1.1800 areas are likely to be moderate with very little on the stop side until the market pushes through the 1.1860 levels with stronger offers standing around the 1.1850 level, a push through the 1.1860 level though is possibly still going to find resistance through to the 1.1880 level stronger stops likely through the level however, congestion through the 1.1900 areas is likely to see the stops absorbed and the move through the level a struggle. Downside bids into the 1.1700 levels are likely to be a bit thinner with a push through the 1.1680 areas possibly attracting weak stops with stronger bids appearing into the 1.1660 and through to the 1.1640 level with congestion continuing through to 1.1600.
- GBP: Cable rose a little through the early part of the session before holding just below the 1.3250 areas and trading in a tight range through to the grey hours with very little news or movement. Topside offers light through the 1.3250 areas with stronger offers moving into the 1.3280-1.3300 levels and possibly better stops on a push through the 1.3320 levels and opening up a quick test to the 1.3350 areas and limited congestion until stronger offers appear around the 1.3400 sentimental level and continuing through to the 1.3440 area. Downside bids light back through the 1.3200 level with slightly stronger bids on a move to the 1.3150 areas however, they are more congestive than anything else and continuing through to the 1.3100 level and beginning to get stronger as it moves through the level to the 1.3050 area where the market has stalled several times over the past 2 months.
- JPY: Very quiet for the JPY with the USDJPY opening around the 112.65 level and then ranging around the level testing to the 112.70 level and dipping to the 112.50 level and holding around the 112.60 into the grey hours, weak offers through to the 113.00 level with limited stops on a push through increasing on a move through the 113.30 level and the market congested through the 113.50 levels and through to the 114.00 level where stronger offers are likely to appear and for the moment very little weakness. Downside bids into the 112.00 level with weak stops on a move through the 111.80 area and the market then lightly supported into the 111.50 area with similar into the 111.00 area and only really strengthening into the 110.50 level.
- AUD: Very little difference in the RBA Minutes with one change on wages recovery centring on the wires, with the market opening around the 0.7550 and testing into the Tokyo session towards the 0.7560 areas before the release of the RBA minutes, the result of which saw the market trading quickly lower through to the 0.7535 levels before stabilizing and holding in a narrow range around that level. Downside bids into the 0.7530-0.7500 levels with possibility of strong stops on a move through the level and opening up a quick test to 74 cent a possibility, Topside offers light through the 76 level however, while there may be stops lurking behind the level congestion through the 0.7640-60 areas is likely to temper any attempt to push to the stronger 77 cent levels.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
NZD:
Westpac say RBNZ won’t raise cash rate until 2019
EUR:
ECB is said likely to take small steps in guidance on QE exit
Significant risks of new election in Germany
Draghi says inflation rate still hasn’t yet reached ECB target
Greece to overshoot budget surplus targets in 2017, 2018 says Govt. Official
AUD:
RBA uncertain on wages recovery as it holds rates at record lows
NAFTA:
NAFTA nations lock horns on US auto demands as fifth round ends
GBP:
May prepares new Brexit offer after strategy talks with cabinet
USD/KRW:
Trump declares N. Korea state sponsor of terror
GBP/EUR:
Key European agencies move away from London in signs of Brexit toll
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Minutes Nov
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â All Industry Activity Index M/M Sep A -0.50% | C -0.40% | P 0.10% | R 0.20%
07:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Oct C 3.21B | P 2.92B
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Public Sector Net Borrowing Oct C 6.6B | P 5.3B
11:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Trends Total Orders Nov C 3 | P -2
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Trade Sales M/M Sep C 0.40% | P 0.50%
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Existing Home Sales Oct C 5.42M | P 5.39M
23:30Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Leading Index M/M Oct P 0.10%
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1790 levels the market initially started to push towards the 1.1800 areas before the collapse of the coalition talks in Germany with the market dropping quickly back to the 1.1750 level, the market continued to fall but slightly slower with the market testing into the low 1.1720’s before finding some buying, and a small bounce back to the 1.1750 areas, the limited recovery saw the market again drifting after being unable to push back through the 1.1750 level and drifting back into the lows through to the grey hours, the move into the London session saw the market recovering and the test to the 1.1750 level saw weak stops and a quick squeeze higher pushing quickly through the opening levels and testing to the 1.1810 areas before stopping, With Merkel playing it cool and telling the world that she will go back to the electorate the market initially took it well however, the move into the NYK session saw the market slip through the session and eventually tested back to the 1.1730 level to hold quietly into the close.
- GBP: Slipping from the opening 1.3220 levels the drag of the Euro into the Tokyo session saw the Cable slip steadily into the new session holding the 1.3200 areas and after a couple of hours dipped to its lows around the 1.3190 area, the market moved off the low and traded back to the 1.3200 level holding into the grey hours, the early pre-London session saw the market moving higher as EURGBP selling moved into the market and the Euro started to recover, Cable steadily moved through the early part of London testing through to the 1.3280 areas before running into sufficient resistance to the move and then drifting through the balance of the day initially holding in the 1.3250 areas before drifting in NYK again to the 1.3230 levels to finish the day 20 pips higher.
- JPY: Opening in line with Fridays close the market dropped from the early highs around the 112.20 level with EURJPY selling moving quickly through the market and the USDJPY testing to the 111.90 level before bouncing as the focus in the market shifted to EURUSD only, the market held in the opening area for a short period before dipping a second time and holding through into the London session around the 112.00 areas, as the market moved towards the NYK session the market slowly started to rise with the market pushing into the late session testing the highs just above the 112.70 level before drifting a touch into the close.
- AUD: OZ was the more stable currency with the market seeing some early drag from the Euro dipping from the opening around the 0.7565 level back to hold the 0.7550 areas and ranging in a 10 pip movement through to the grey hours where it moved back to the opening levels, early London took the market too its highs which was just below the 0.7575 level where it struggled and the market slowly slipped lower through into the NYK session pressing down to the 0.7550 areas and ranging around the level to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (JPY) Oct A 0.32T | C 0.21T | P 0.24T | R 0.27T
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI M/M Oct A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI Y/Y Oct A 2.70% | C 2.70% | P 3.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index Oct A 1.20% | C 0.60% | P -0.20%
Good Luck,
Andy
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