Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.446 | EURUSD 1.17385 | AUDUSD 0.7578 | NZDUSD 0.68305 | USDCAD 1.27788 | USDCHF 0.99148 | GBPUSD 1.32383 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.17478 | 1.17323
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.505 | 112.155
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32571 | 1.32372
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99198 | 0.98985
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75957 | 0.75621
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.27890 | 1.27629
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68538 | 0.68242
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16381 | 1.16244
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88674 | 0.88553
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 132.095 | 131.713
For today
- EUR: While volumes were not to low the market has been very quiet through Asia as you’d expect for an FOMC day, opening around the 1.1740 levels early trading saw the market trade through the 1.1735 level before spiking through towards the 1.1750 areas and unable to push beyond that level, minor gyrations with the market settling into a range around the 1.1740 areas and remaining in the range through to the grey hours, Topside offers into the 1.1780 areas with offers likely to increase on a push to the 1.1800 areas, while there is possibly some weak stops behind the level the market is likely to find congestive offers continuing through to the stronger 1.1850 areas and then further offers through to the 1.1880 before the possibility of stops appearing, downside bids light through to the 1.1700 areas with weak stops likely on a push through to the 1.1680 level and congestion then appearing around the 1.1660-40 level and weak stops possible, a push to the 1.1600 is likely to see some congestive bids however the 1.1550 level is likely to be congestive and strong stops on a move through the level and the market opening to a deeper move.
- GBP: A quiet steady rise from the opening 1.3240 level and pushing lightly through the 1.3245 areas into the late part of the session and holding into the grey hours, Offers into the 1.3300 are likely to be respectable with those offers likely to continue through however, the congestive offers are likely to be swept aside by weak stops and the market finding stronger impetus on a move towards the 1.3400 level with those strong offers likely to continue through to the 1.3440 area. Downside bids light through the 1.3200 levels and possible weak stops on a test through to find congestion running from the 1.3150 areas however, the downside is fairly weak until the 1.3100 areas and through that level to the 1.3050 and the key level to a return to the 1.2900 handle.
- JPY: A little bit higher on the open and trading back from those highs close to the 112.50 area to drift lower in the first hour testing to the 112.25 areas and hen holding a quiet 112.20-35 range for a long period, a push through the 112.20 quickly set the lows and the market then held into the grey hours around that level. Downside bids inot the 112.00 areas and likely to continue through to the 111.80 level and weak stops are possible for a quick move to the 111.50 level however a push through here is likely to leave the 110.50 key level vulnerable to a test especially if the FOMC disappoints however, the chances are possibly stronger for a Dec move than a Nov move historically if I remember correctly, Topside offers light through to limited congestive offers into 113.00 areas with the market likely to continue resisting the move until the 113.30 area, a break here will see some limited stops and the market then testing towards stronger resistance around the 113.90-114.00 level.
- AUD: Leading index in line with expectations and a stronger construction number saw the Oz test through quickly to the 0.7595 areas before slipping slowly back to the opening lows and then pushing through a short time later, the market dipped through to the 0.7565 areas with cross trading doing more than anything else. Downside bids through to the 0.7530 areas with possible stops on a push through and some support into the 75 cent areas, a drop below the level is likely to see a deeper move with weak support into the 74 cent level however, a deeper move still is probably available for the market. Topside offers into the 0.7600 areas and continuing through congestion to the 0.7660 level before stronger offers then appear through the 77 cent level.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
NZD:
Whole Milk powder average price falls to $2,778 a ton
NZ posts highest permanent immigration since June
EUR:
German FDP won’t seek to revive coalition talks official
FDP official comments after party head meets German president
USD:
US official says no NAFTA currency text proposed yet USTR still working with US treasury
US official: says Canada, Mexico have not made counterproposals on most major NAFTA demands
US official: NAFTA deal still possible by March
Yellen: wants to avoid boom and bust US economy RTRS
Yellen: During tenure, engaged in fundamental rethink of way the economy works
Yellen: Markets have proven a little bit ahead of us in revising down longer run normal interest rate in recent years
Yellen: So far so good in reducing FED balance sheet
Yellen: Meets regularly with Mnuchin, Cohn, says they do not offer advice on US monetary policy
Yellen: Reasonably close to inflation, employment golas, 4.1% unemployment at or below goal
Yellen: Inflation below target, appropriate to gradually raise rates
Yellen: Can be quite dangerous to allow inflation to drift down and miss target over time
Yellen: Yellen inflation expectations have not drifted down too much
Yellen: Raising rates key to dealing with potential future negative shock
Yellen: Raising rate too slowly risks tightening labour market too much
JPY:
Japan eyes fiscal 2017 extra budget of 2.2T-2.3T Yen Sankei
AUD:
Australia 3Q construction work up 15.7% QoQ est. -2.3%
MiFIDII may cost ASX up $44B of foreign investment that puts a price on sell side research
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Leading Index M/M Oct A 0.10% | P 0.10%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Work Done Q3 A 15.70% | C -2.30% | P 9.30% | R 9.80%
12:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â U.K. Chancellor Presents Budget to Parliament
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 18) C 241K | P 249K
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders Oct (P) C 0.30% | P 2.00%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durables Ex Transportation Oct (P) C 0.40% | P 0.70%
15:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Nov (A) C -0.9 | P -1
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Mich. Sentiment Nov (F) CÂ 98 | P 97.8
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P 1.9M
17:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P -18B
19:00    USD      FOMC Meeting Minutes Nov                                   Â
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A reasonably quiet day with the market centred around the 1.1735 levels, opening around the 1.1735 the market traded slightly higher into the Tokyo session to test the 1.1745 level before falling back to range around the 1.1735 areas, the move into the grey hours saw the market pushing the 1.1750 level before moving into the London session pushing off the lows to spike above the 1.1755 level and make the highs of the day, the market reversed quickly with the market then setting the lows around the 1.1715 area, and the range complete the market rose back to the starting areas and although testing the 1.1750 level was unable to push through and finished the day with little change.
- GBP: Opening around the 1.3240 level the market moved a little higher through into the Tokyo session pushing towards the 1.3250 level before holding into the grey hours, Cable pushed through the 1.3250 into the early London session to testing through to the 1.3265 areas before starting a steady descent through into midmorning in London pushing through to the 1.3210 level and into the NYK session ranging in the 1.3230-60 levels in light trading the end of the day saw the market little changed on the day with PSBR showing a good revision for last month and a poor number for this month and so really cancelling themselves out.
- JPY: USDJPY slowly eased off through the day with the market opening around the 112.60 areas and managing an early push to the 112.70 areas before drifting through to the grey hours testing the 112.50 level, early London took the market through the level and the market drifted around the 112.50 through into the NYK session, before dipping through to the lows around the 112.20 level with very little volume through to the close having returned to the 112.50 areas.
- AUD: A quiet session through Asia with the markert dropping back from the 0.7555 levels on the release of the RBA minutes to test the 0.7535 levels, the market continued through the Asian session holding that level, early London were quick buyers and took the market quickly through the 0.7560 level to test towards the 0.7685 areas into the full session, the market then held around the 0.7580 areas through to the close have tested the highs just above the 0.7590 area and closing just off the 0.7580 areas.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Minutes Nov
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â All Industry Activity Index M/M Sep A -0.50% | C -0.40% | P 0.10% | R 0.20%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Oct A 2.33B | C 3.21B | P 2.92B
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Public Sector Net Borrowing Oct A 7.5B | C 6.6B | P 5.3B | R 4.4B
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Trends Total Orders Nov A 17 | C 3 | P -2
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Trade Sales M/M Sep A -1.20% | C 0.40% | P 0.50% | R 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Existing Home Sales Oct A 5.48M| C 5.42M | P 5.39M
Good Luck,
Andy
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