Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 111.222 | EURUSD 1.1825 | AUDUSD 0.76184 | NZDUSD 0.6856 | USDCAD 1.26977 | USDCHF 0.98202 | GBPUSD 1.33252 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.18379 | 1.18133
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.378 | 111.072
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33378 | 1.33148
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98278 | 0.98101
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76226 | 0.76039
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.27140 | 1.26961
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68849 | 0.68677
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16180 | 1.15962
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88816 | 0.8674
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 131.808 | 131.233
For today
- EUR: A quiet session with the Euro moving quietly around the 1.1820 levels through to mid-Tokyo before attempting to move higher trading into the high 1.1830’s before struggling and slipping back again to the 1.1830’s to hold through into the grey hours, topside offers into the 1.1840 level and likely to continue through to the 1.1860 area however, even a push through this level is likely to see congestion increasing into the 1.1880-1.1900 strong offers with limited stops through the figure level and a continuation congestive type offers through to the 1.1920 level, downside bids light through the 1.1800 areas with weak stops on a push through the 1.1780 areas likely to be absorbed by congestive bids into the 1.1750 areas with potentially stronger stops on a move through the 1.1740 level and a vulnerable figure area.
- GBP: A quiet rise from the opening around the 1.3320 areas sat the market move off the lows just below that level and push through into the 1.3335-38 area before drifting back to range into the grey hours around the 1.3325 area, Topside offers light through to the 1.3400 levels, minor congestion into the area and the market opening to a push through to the 1.3440 area before meeting resistance to the move, some light stops on a move through with the 1.3500 then becoming a target with stronger offers likely in that area, Downside bids light through to the 1.3200-20 areas with some late arrivals in the area however, weak stops below the 1.3180 areas could see a strong move lower for the Cable with limited bids until the 1.3150-1.3050 areas.
- JPY: Very quiet ranging day with the market opening in the 111.30 levels and early sellers in Tokyo managed to test through to the 111.10 areas before starting a slow move higher to make the Asian highs around the 111.38 area before holding around the 111.30 level to the grey hours, Topside offers light through to the 111.90 level with some offers then running through to the 112.00 areas and the chance of a small squeeze on weak stops beyond that level to test towards the 112.50 areas however, with the oncoming bank holiday the market is likely to be a little quiet, downside bids into the 111.00 area likely to be weak with some stronger bids probably around the 110.50 areas for the time being with weak stops below the range is likely to be tight.
- AUD: The Oz drifted through the early part of Tokyo with the market testing to the 0.7605 areas before regaining the opening levels around the 0.7620 in limited movement. Topside offers into the 0.7640 areas likely to dominate the topside and keep a lid on any movement for the day with weak stops not likely until beyond the 77 cent areas with strong offers in that area. Downside bids light through to the 0.7540 level with stronger bids running from there into the 0.7500 areas with possibly light option barriers protecting that downside.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
USD:
Several FED members concerned about possible financial imbalances
A few FED members opposed near term hike on weak inflation
Many FED members saw near term rate hike as warranted
ECB:
Officials hope to put off major debates until 2018 RTRS
NZD:
NZ retail volumes stumble in 3Q
AUD:
Australia warns of Asia power shift to China if US withdraws
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Q/Q Q3 A 0.20% | C 0.40% | P 2.00% | R 1.80%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Q/Q Q3 A 0.50% | C 0.90% | P 2.10% | R 1.90%
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GDP Q/Q Q3 (F) C 0.80% | P 0.80%
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Nov (P) C 55.9 | P 56.1
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Nov (P) C 57 | P 57.3
08:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Nov (P) C 60.3 | P 60.6
08:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Nov (P) C 55 | P 54.7
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Nov (P) C 58.2 | P 58.5
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Nov (P) C 55.2 | P 55
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q3 (P) C 0.40% | P 0.40%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Total Business Investment Q/Q Q3 (P) C 0.30% | P 0.50%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M Sep C 0.40% | P 0.40%
11:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Reported Sales Nov C 3 | P -36
12:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Sep C 1.00% | P -0.30%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Sep C 1.10% | P -0.70%
21:45Â Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Oct C -750M | P -1143M
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet rise through the day until the FOMC that is, with the market opening around the 1.1740 areas and dipping a little in early trading to test the 1.1735 area the market rose into the Tokyo session to push only to the 1.1745 areas before holding around the 1.1740 through into the grey hours, the market rose slowly into the London session and tested through to the 1.1770 in early morning trading before drifting back to the opening levels through to the NYK session, the opening in NYK saw a steady stream of USD selling with the market steadily pushing above the 1.1770 highs and triggering some weak stops through to the 1.1795 areas pausing through to the FOMC release before pushing above the 1.1800 levels and touching into the 1.1820’s before seeing sufficient selling to curb the market to the close.
- GBP: Very limited through to the FOMC, opening around the 1.3240 level the market slowly rose to above the 1.3250 level however, it took the whole of the Asian session to get there before drifting through into the NYK session to quickly test through to the 1.3220 areas and then recovering as the USD was sold, the recovery saw the market push to the 1.3280 levels as the budget news kicked in only to pause for the move to the FOMC before pushing through the 1.3300 level and trigger small stops on a move to the 1.3320 areas where the market held for the balance of the session.
- JPY: Opening on its highs the market traded steadily lower through the day, with the Asian session dropping back from the 112.50 levels to run into the grey hours testing the 112.00 levels, the move into the London session saw a period of respite as the market held the level but unable to push back through the 112.20 areas, the move into the NYK session saw a continuation of the Asian session and the market slowly pushing through the 112.00 levels and light stops triggering the market to the 111.50 area, and holding through to the FOMC release, another round of selling saw the market quickly to the 111.20 levels and holding around that area to the close.
- AUD: Trading from the 0.7580 areas the market made early gains to the 0.7595 area before running into some resistance and turning back lower through the Asian session to steadily test into the 0.7560 levels through to the London session, sellers attempted to push the market lower again but with limited volume in the Oz the market held the 0.7555 level and the start of slow USD selling heled the market back to through the opening levels to test to the highs again, pausing through into the FOMC release the Oz started a quick push through the 0.7600 areas testing to the 0.7620 area into the close in NYK.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Leading Index M/M Oct A 0.10% | P 0.10%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Work Done Q3 A 15.70% | C -2.30% | P 9.30% | R 9.80%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â U.K. Chancellor Presents Budget to Parliament
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 18) A 239K | C 241K | P 249K | R 252K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders Oct (P) A -1.20% | C 0.30% | P 2.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durables Ex Transportation Oct (P) A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.70%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Nov (A) A 0 | C -0.9 | P -1
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Mich. Sentiment Nov (F) A 98.5 | C 98 | P 97.8
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -1.9M | C -1.4M | P 1.9M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A -46B | C -51B | P -18B
USD      FOMC Meeting Minutes Nov                                                  Â
Good Luck,
Andy
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