Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.537 | EURUSD 1.19036 | AUDUSD 0.7566 | NZDUSD 0.68414 | USDCAD 1.28964 | USDCHF 0.98367 | GBPUSD 1.35284 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.19297 | 1.18868
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.695 | 112.329
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.35499 | 1.35112
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98515 | 0.98261
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75706 | 0.75509
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29021 | 1.28712
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68420 | 0.68169
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.17312 | 1.1698
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88145 | 0.87885
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 134.298 | 133.808
For today
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1905 level the market pushed to its lows in the Sydney session testing slightly through the 1.1890 areas before starting a slow rise through into the Tokyo session to the 1.1900 areas and holding through deeper into the session, eventually breaking through to trade to the 1.1915 level and ranging through to the grey hours holding close to the highs, Topside offers into the 1.1950 levels with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1960 areas and stronger offers then appearing into the 1.2000 level with possible option barriers appearing, a push through the 1.2020 areas will likely see stronger stops appearing with the market then open to a run towards the 1.2080 level. Downside bids light through the 1.1900 areas with weak stops on a push through the 1.1880 level and opening only to the 1.1850 with some congestion in that area likely to slow the decline, however a push through will see the 1.1800 level tested quickly with stronger congestion around the level thinning a little through to the 1.1750 level.
- GBP: A similar pattern for the Cable with the market dipping from the opening around the 1.3530 areas and testing towards the 1.3510 area, moving into the Tokyo session the market moved back to the opening levels before testing through to the 1.3550 levels and dropping back to trading around the 30 level through to the grey hours, with early volume quiet strong the market settled down after the first couple of hours, Light congestion to the topside and continuing through to the stronger 1.3600 areas with possible strong stops on move through the areas and the years highs around the 1.3650 level likely to be problematic for the first attempt. Downside bids light back through the 1.3500 level with weak stops on a move through and the 1.3450-30 areas likely to see stronger bids and likely to continue through to the 1.3400 in lighter fashion.
- JPY: Moving into the Tokyo session the market moved to the 112.70 level before dropping steadily back to the opening level and slipping lower on the Senate delay to the Tax vote, testing into the 112.30’s the market then steadily rose back through to the 112.60 areas, Topside offers into the 112.80-113.00 levels with lighter offers possibly through the level into the 113.30 area and possible weak stops however, the move beyond the level should see congestive offers continuing through to the 113.90 and stronger levels from there. Downside bids light back through the 112.00 areas with very light stops on a track back to the 111.50 levels where bids are likely to start thickening with stronger bids still through that level and into the 111.00 areas.
- AUD: A very quiet session for the Oz with the initial move from the opening making the bulk of the range so far, dropping through to the 0.7550 areas the market rose back through the 0.7560 level and then trading in a tight range of 0.7560-70 through to the grey hours, downside bids through to the 0.7530 areas with possible weak stops on a move through the level with some congestive bids into the 75 cent levels before stops appear in a mixture of orders through onto the 74 cent handle and further congestion through to the 74 cent level. Topside offers likely to be thin to the 76 cent levels with some offers likely to be building around that level with congestion through to the 0.7640 level and possible stronger offers the closer you get, weak stops likely to be light at best and the market continuing to be lightly congested until closer to the 77 cent areas.
Â
Overnight News                                                                 Â
NZD:
NZ terms of trade rose less than forecast in Q3
OPEC/RUB:
OPEC reaches deal with Russia to extend oil cuts through 2018
USD:
Senate tax bill hits obstacle over deficit
Hill leaders take first steps to prevent year-end shutdown CNN
US Senate will note vote on republican tax bill Thursday night, debate to continue on Friday RTRS
Bitcoin could threaten financial stability Fed Governor
AUD:
NAB hikes fixed rate home loans by 30bp
Large storm threatens Australia’s wheat crop after drought
SGD/AUD:
Upgraded Singapore-Australia free trade agreement ratified, comes into force today
JPY:
Japan Emperor’s abdication date set for April 30, 2019 Abe
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Terms of Trade Index Q/Q Q3 A 0.70% | C 1.30% | P 1.50% | R 1.40%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Oct A 2.80%| C 2.80% | P 2.80%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Overall Household Spending Y/Y Oct A 0.00% | C -0.30% | P -0.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â National CPI Core Y/Y Oct A 0.80% | C 0.80% | P 0.70%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Nov A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P 0.60%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Capital Spending Q3 A 4.20% | C 3.20% | P 1.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Nov (F) A 53.6 | C 53.8 | P 53.8
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Caixin PMI Manufacturing Nov A 50.8 | C 51 | P 51
08:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Nov C 62.5 | P 62
08:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Manufacturing PMI Nov C 58.3 | P 57.8
08:50Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Nov (F) C 57.5 | P 57.5
08:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Nov (F) C 62.5 | P 62.5
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Nov (F) C 60 | P 60
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Nov C 56.5 | P 56.3
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP M/M Sep C 0.10% | P -0.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Change in Employment Nov C 10.0K | P 35.3K
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Nov C 6.20% | P 6.30%
14:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Nov P 54.3
14:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Nov (F) C 53.8 | P 53.8
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Manufacturing Nov C 58.3 | P 58.7
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Prices Paid Nov C 67.8 | P 68.5
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Spending M/M Oct C 0.50% | P 0.30%
Â
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Early trading quiet through to the London session with the market opening around the 1.1850 areas and slowly rising through to test the 1.1870 and into the grey hours to push through to the 1.1875 area, the early rise was more a consequence of the GBP’s push, the move into the London session saw the market moving off those highs and steadily drifting lower with European employment numbers and a weaker CPI figure, while the employment figures improved it still remains higher than you’d expect, Euro’s eventually tested through to the 1.1810 levels before bouncing back to the 1.1830 level with weak stops cleared and started a steady rise through to the NYK session and holding at the opening levels again, US numbers saw a rise in Personal income and flat spending however, the USD was unable to capitalize on numbers showing very little and the Euro found itself being pulled higher and testing through to the 1.1900 areas, limited stops were seen on the move however, the market was only to push through to the 1.1930 levels before meeting resistance to the move and then dropped back below the 1.1900 and gyrated to the close in a steady range finishing just above the figure area.
- GBP: Opening around the 1.3410 areas the move into the Tokyo session saw the Cable make a quick move through the 1.3440 level and trigger some weak stops on a move to 1.3460, the market had a short breather before again pushing on however, the resistance into the 1.3480-.1.3500 level was too much and Asia was unable to test through the level and moved into the London session ranging through to NYK between the 1.3450-75 levels, the market dipped back just before the NYK opening as some weak longs covered however, the dip was weak and unable to truly push through the 1.3440 level and the movement into the NYK session fully sat the market again rally this time pushing through the 1.3480 level pausing and then triggering good buying on a test through the 1.3500 areas and some weak stops on a test towards the 1.3550 level before failing and falling back again, although the market did fall below the 1.3500 areas it was only for short period before again trading through to the 1.3530 areas for the run to the close.
- JPY: A slow Asian session for the USDJPY with the market lifting off the opening lows around the 111.90 to gradually ease pas the 112.00 area and test to the 112.10 however, it was slow going and the market eventually drifted back to trade narrowly around the figure areas through to just before the grey hour where stronger buying for the month end started to push through the market and take USDJPY into the 112.30 levels for the London open , London took the market towards the 112.50 levels in early trading however, with the end of Tokyo the market slipped back to trade into the NYK session holding around the 112.30 levels, before dipping back on the US news, the USDJPY traded through to the 111.70 areas before rising just as quickly to push through the 112.50 levels and hold above for rest of the session.
- AUD: Limited range for the Oz however the initial move lower was quickly countered into the Tokyo session pushing off the low around the 0.7555 area to test back through the opening 0.7575 and testing to 0.7590 level to hold broadly speaking towards that high, the move into the London session saw the Oz under pressure and a steady push through towards the lows again and then holding around the 0.7565 level through to NYK, USD movement saw the Oz extend the high slightly pushing the 0.7595 level and then dropping back to finish the day just off the lows again.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Oct A -9.60% | P -2.30% | R -2.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Oct (P) A 0.50% | C 1.80% | P -1.00%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ANZ Business Confidence Nov A -39.1 | P -10.1
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GfK Consumer Confidence Nov A -12 | C -11 | P -10
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Private Capital Expenditure Q3 A 1.00% | C 1.00% | P 0.80% | R 1.10%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Approvals M/M Oct A 0.90% | C -1.00% | P 1.50% | R 0.60%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Nov A 51.8 | C 51.5 | P 51.6
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Non-manufacturing PMI Nov A 54.8 | P 54.3
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Y/Y Oct A -4.80% | C -2.80% | P -2.90%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q3 A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P 0.30% | R 0.40%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â KOF Leading Indicator Nov A 110.3 | C 109.5 | P 109.1 | R 109.8
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Real Y/Y Oct A -3.00% | C 0.30% | P -0.40%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Change Nov A -18K | C -10K | P -11K | -12K
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Claims Rate Nov A 5.60% | C 5.60% | P 5.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Unemployment Rate Oct A 8.80% | C 8.90% | P 8.90%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Nov A 1.50% | C 1.60% | P 1.40%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Nov (A) A 0.90% | C 1.00% | P 0.90%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account Balance (CAD) Q3 A -19.4B | C -20.3B | P -16.3B | R -15.6B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 25) A 238K | C 241K | P 239K | 240K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Income Oct A 0.40% | C 0.30% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Spending Oct A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 1.00% | R 0.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator M/M Oct A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator Y/Y Oct A 1.60% | C 1.50% | P 1.60% | R 1.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core M/M Oct A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.10% | R 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core Y/Y Oct A 1.40% | C 1.40% | P 1.30% | R 1.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Chicago PMI Nov A 63.9 | C 62.3 | P 66.2
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A -33B | C -37B | P -46B
              Â
Good Luck,
Andy
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.