Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.40 | EURUSD 1.17767 | AUDUSD 0.76656 | NZDUSD 0.69982 | USDCAD 1.27976 | USDCHF 0.9892 | GBPUSD 1.34313 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.17912 | 1.17646
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.409 | 112.113
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.34476 | 1.34215
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99001 | 0.98772
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76755 | 0.76544
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28042 | 1.2772
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70261 | 0.69797
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16580 | 1.16405
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87762 | 0.87602
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 132.474 | 132.164
For today
- EUR: Early trading saw the market test to the 1.1765 area to make the lows so far today and the move into the Tokyo session saw some steady buying to the 1.1790 level before struggling and ranging through to the grey hours holding the 1.1790-80 level, Topside congestion through the 1.1850 levels with strength on the offer side likely to continue through to the 1.1880 level with possible light stops through the level mixed with offers to the 1.1900 areas, a push through the 1.1920 level will likely see some weak stops appearing and the market opening to a test to the 1.1950 level with the offers there likely to continue through the 1.1960 level and stops opening up a challenge to the 1.2000 level if there is sufficient impetus to drive through the awaiting offers. Downside bids light through the 1.1750 level with some bids into the 1.1730 area to contend with before weakness through to below 1.1700 and the waiting stronger bids into the 1.1660 level.
- GBP: Similar pattern to the Euro with the market initially dipping slightly to just above the 1.3420 level and rising quietly through to just below the 1.3450 area before ranging around the 1.3440 level through to the grey hours, Topside light congestion through to the 1.3500 level with weak stops possibly through the level with continuing congestion with stronger offers into the 1.3550 areas, a break here could see stronger stops appearing and the market quickly testing through to the 1.3600 level and sentimental offers from there and over the next 2 big figures and into the 1.3800 range. Downside bids light back through the 1.3400 level with limited congestion in the area and the market open to the 1.3350 areas with stronger bids on any move towards the 1.3300 levels and key to any further move lower.
- JPY: Quiet through to the Tokyo fix with the market holding around the opening level just below the 112.40 levels calls for further easing caused the market to dip through to the 112.10 levels before resuming the opening levels eventually after a long drawn out push back and into the grey hours unchanged. Bids into the 112.00 level still to be respected however a push through the 111.80 level will likely see some weak stops and the market then limited through to the 111.00 areas a push through the level will likely see stops appearing however, 110.50 is likely to be the key level for any further losses, Topside offer light through the 113.00 areas with stronger offers not appearing until closer to the 113.50 areas with strong congestio0n on a move through and into the 113.90-114.20 levels however, even after that the key level is still blocked and the market will have to break through the 114.60 level to open further rises.
- AUD: Oz drifted from the opening to set the low just above the 0.7655 level and then slowly pushing through to trade around the 0.7670 level with the 75 level briefly under threat before drifting into the grey hours, Topside offers through the current highs and into the 77 cent level with congestion likely to continue through the level with weak stops possibly on a break of the 0.7730 level and a return to stronger offers likely continuing through to the 0.7775 levels before a congested 78 cent areas. Downside bids light through the 76 level with congestion likely to increase on a move through, some weak stops on a push through the 0.7550 areas are likely to then run into stronger bids towards the 0.7520-00 areas.
Overnight News
EUR:
ECB still cautious on inflation, despite strong growth
Weidmann says functioning Euro doesn’t require risk sharing
Draghi says ECB will still undershoot inflation goal in 2020
CAD:
Poloz says caution isn’t code for being on hold
Poloz: excess capacity still exists in Canadian economy
Poloz: want economy to run hotter for awhile to use capacity
Poloz: Canada is behind US cycle by a year or two
Poloz: Canada monetary policy independent of FED reserve
NZD:
NZ manufacturing growth accelerated in November
USD:
Florida Republican says he will vote against overhaul unless child tax credit for low income households is expanded
EUR/GBP:
Tory rebels have made “no deal†Brexit more likely, EU leaders warn
ZAR:
Weekend election may provide for some volatility with early reports questioning the voracity of the vote already
JPY:
BoJ is said to tweak message as dissenter call for more easing
AUD:
RBA’s Harper: 5% likely not tippi9ng point for wage growth
Harper: excess capacity in labour market likely bigger than thought
Harper: Rates need to stay supportive of economy
Harper: economy performing passably
Harper Investment in non-mining industries growing quickly
Harper: strong government infrastructure spending also helping economy
Turnbull’s authority on the line in tight Sydney election race
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Trade Balance Oct C 24.6B | P 25.0B
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Sales M/M Oct P 0.50%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Empire State Manufacturing Index Dec C 18 | P 19.4
14:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Nov C 0.30% | P 0.90%
14:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization Nov C 77.20% | P 77.00%
21:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Long-term TIC Flows Oct P 80.9B
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet range through the Asian session with the market making it to the 1.1840 areas and eventually pushing a little through the level into early Tokyo, the market then drifted away slowly from the levels through into the grey hours testing the opening lows and holding around the 1.1820 level into the London session, with a little bit of a choppy session through early London with better PMI numbers helping the Euro to push into the NYK session testing just beyond the 1.1860 levels, and no rate changes for the Eurozone however, the ECB communique was still cautious and the Euro was undermined by their usual deflating comments taking the Euro back to the 1.1770 levels holding those lows through to the end of London before re-establishing contact with the 1.1800 levels through to the close of the futures, the move to the close saw the market drifting a little to hold the 1.1780 areas.
- GBP: Overall a quiet session range wise with the market opening around the 1.3420 levels and chopping between that level and the 1.3400 area before moving deeper into the Tokyo session pushing slowly through to the 1.3440 areas with a spike towards the 1.3450 level on some weak stops, the market drifted through the grey hours and into London back to the 1.3420 areas before rising again however, the market was tempered by the unanimous vote to remain at the current 0.50% and drifted through to the 1.3400 levels into the NYK morning session, the market held the areas and pushed back through to the 1.3440 levels for a long run to the close.
- JPY: The move through to NYK was reasonably tight with the market opening around the 112.55 level and slowly moving through into the Tokyo session to test to the 112.80 level before drifting back through into the grey hours holding the opening levels, early buyers took the market through to test the 112.80 areas again in London with the market making its highs just below the 112.90 area before drifting through into the NYK session again slipping back towards the open again, a weaker jobless claims, stronger retail sales saw the USD spike quickly through the 112.80 level before taking into account a weaker import price number USD dropped back late into the session with the end of London quickly pushing to the 112.50 levels and weak stops taking the market through once London had left for the Christmas parties and testing quickly to the 112.10-05 areas before holding for a short period and recovering a meagre 35-40 pips into the close.
- AUD: A quiet start to the day with the market moving from the opening 0.7635 level to drift just below 0.7630 through into the Tokyo session another good set of employment numbers saw the market quickly push through to the 0.7670 areas and then a quiet range really through to the close, the market struggled through Asia and into London with the 0.7675 level drifting back through to the 0.7655 areas in the London session however, even a weaker USD did little for the Oz with the market still unable to push to new highs and eventually slipping on the early US numbers to the 0.7650 level before starting a slow climb and drive through to touch the 0.7680 level just the once before finishing the day around the 0.7665 level.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Dec A 3.70% | P 3.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Nov A 0% | C 0% | P 1%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Nov A 61.6K | C 19.2K | P 3.7K | R 7.8K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Nov A 5.40% | C 5.40% | P 5.40%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Y/Y Nov A 10.20% | C 10.30% | P 10.00%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Nov A 7.20% | C 7.20% | P 7.30%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Nov A 6.10% | C 6.20% | P 6.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Oct (F) A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Dec (P) A 59.3 | C 57.2 | P 57.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Dec (P) A 59.4 | C 59.9 | P 60.4
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices M/M Nov A 0.60% | C 0.30% | P 0.50%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Nov A 1.80% | P 1.20%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate A -0.75% | C -0.75% | P -0.75%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB 3-Month Libor Upper Target Range A -0.25% | C -0.25% | P -0.25%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB 3-Month Libor Lower Target Range A -1.25% | C -1.25% | P -1.25%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Dec (P) A 63.3 | C 62 | P 62.5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Dec (P) A 55.8 | C 54.6 | P 54.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Dec (P) A 60.6 | C 59.7 | P 60.1
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Dec (P) A 56.5 | C 56 | P 56.2
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Nov A 1.10% | C 0.40% | P 0.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Bank Rate A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BOE Asset Purchase Target Dec A 435B | C 435B | P 435B
GBP      MPC Official Bank Rate Votes A 0–0—9 | C 0–0—9 | P 7–0–2
GBP      MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes A 0–0—9 | C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Press Conference
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M Oct A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 09) A 225K | C 239K | P 236K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Advance M/M Nov A 0.80% | C 0.30% | P 0.20% | R 0.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Nov A 1.00% | C 0.70% | P 0.10% | R 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index M/M Nov A 0.70% | C 0.80% | P 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Manufacturing PMI Dec (P) A 55 | C 54.2 | P 53.9
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Services PMI Dec (P) A 52.4 | C 54.6 | P 54.5
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories Oct A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P 0.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A -69B | C -55B | P 2B
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Last one for the year have a good festive break and happy new year,
Andy
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