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Daily FX Market Commentary

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 112.686 | EURUSD 1.20009 | AUDUSD 0.78037 | NZDUSD 0.70886 | USDCAD 1.25846 | USDCHF 0.97466 | GBPUSD 1.35073 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.20257 | 1.1992

USDJPY                 112.794 | 112.589

GBPUSD               1.35232 | 1.3497

USDCHF               0.97477 | 0.9730

AUDUSD              0.78428 | 0.77926

USDCAD               1.25598 | 1.25299

NZDUSD               0.71235 | 0.70737

EURCHF                1.17115 | 1.16942

EURGBP               0.88949 | 0.88835

EURJPY                 135.544 | 135.228

 

For today

  • EUR: A patchy opening with the market opening in line with the last day of trading and bouncing around the 1.2004-1.2016 in early trading with thin liquidity through to the Tokyo opening, the move into the new session saw some stronger buying filtering through and the market rising slowly through to above the 1.2023 areas before stalling and drifting back to the 1.2010 level and ranging in that 10-20 range through to the grey hours in quiet trading and holding into the grey hours around the 1.2015 areas. Light offers into the 1.2040 areas and likely to continue through to the 1.2060 level with some weak stops likely through the level before offers begin to increase on a move to the 1.2100 level, with offers likely to continue through to the 1.2120 level before stronger stops begin to appear on a break through and a push towards those early 2015 ranges. Downside bids light back through to the 1.1900 areas and likely to increase on a test below the level with possible strong stops appearing on a move through the 1.1880 area.
  • GBP: Opening broadly in line with the close, the market managed a patchy hour before starting a slow push away from the opening around the 1.3500 level and testing through to the 1.3520 levels before ranging through the session around the 1.3510-20 areas with several peaks above the 20 level but never convincingly moving higher. Topside sees strong offers into the 1.3550 areas with possible strong stops on a move through the level and only sentimental offers likely through to the 1.3800 areas, downside bids light through to the 1.3430-40 areas with possible strong bids likely before drifting into a congested 1.33-1.34 area. With limited stops along the way with those likely to appear through the level.
  • JPY: Opening a little lower the market touched through the 112.60 level in the first hour of trading on patchy liquidity before rallying through in early Tokyo trading towards the 112.80 areas to make the early highs however, once deep into the session the market drifted back to the closing levels around the 112.70 areas to hold through to the grey hours. Downside bids into the 112.20-00 areas with weak stops on a move through the 111.80 level opening the market to weak congestion down to the 111.00 areas and stronger stops on a break below 110.80, Topside offers into the 113.00 level likely to be light with similar light stops appearing into the 113.20 level however, some congestive offers then start to appear and increase on a move through the 113.20 areas and likely to increase as the market probes to the 113.80 areas and strong offers likely protecting the 114.00 level with stops likely to be stacked up just above those levels.
  • AUD: Oz rallied from the opening around the 0.7800-0.7805 areas to push through to the 0.7820 area before dropping off on minor numbers to test through the 78 cent levels and moving into the Tokyo and pushing steadily higher and through to the 0.7840 areas before stalling and holding through to the grey hours. Strong offers likely from the 0.7850 areas with those offers likely to increase into the 79 cent level with possible option plays in the area, downside bids light back through the 78 cent level with stronger bids into the 0.7780-70 areas with weak stops through the level and limited bids then until the 0.7740 levels where similar type bids start to appear in the market.

 

Overnight News

KRW:

Korea’s Kim Jong Un tells US they should be aware that his country’s nuclear forces are now a reality not a threat in New Year address

USD:

Trump calls for change in failing Iran as protests turn fatal – BBG

US budget fight looms, Republicans flip their fiscal script

AUD:

Australia manufacturing index falls 1.1 pts MoM to 56.2

CNY:

China caps overseas withdrawal limits to limit further capital outflows

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

CNY        Caixin PMI Manufacturing Dec A 51.5 | C 50.7 | P 50.8

08:45     EUR        Italy Manufacturing PMI Dec C 58.5 | P 58.3

08:50     EUR        France Manufacturing PMI Dec (F) C 59.3 | P 59.3

08:55     EUR        Germany Manufacturing PMI Dec (F) C 63.3 | P 63.3

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Dec (F) C 60.6 | P 60.6

09:30     GBP       PMI Manufacturing Dec C 57.9 | P 58.2

14:30     CAD       RBC Manufacturing PMI Dec P 54.4

14:45     USD       US Manufacturing PMI Dec (F) C 55 | P 55

 

Yesterday’s premiership results

09:00     EUR        Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Nov A 4.90% | C 4.90% | P 5.00%

13:00     EUR        German Consumer Price Index M/M Dec (P) A 0.60% | C 0.50% | P 0.30%

13:00     EUR        German Consumer Price Index Y/Y Dec (P) A 1.70% | C 1.50% | P 1.80%

 

 

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