Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.751 | EURUSD 1.2247 | AUDUSD 0.7781 | NZDUSD 0.72201 | USDCAD 1.26025 | USDCHF 0.93607 | GBPUSD 1.3912 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.22639 | 1.22402
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.098 | 108.486
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.39510 | 1.3910
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.93852 | 0.93489
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.77924 | 0.77589
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.26127 | 1.25856
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72299 | 0.71988
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.15016 | 1.14524
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88061 | 0.87882
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 133.727 | 133.038
For today
- EUR: A quiet range with the market moving off the opening to test above the 1.2260 levels several times without being able to push through and the downside saw the market basing on the 1.2250 level with only a single push below the level and moving into the grey hours only just above the open. Topside congestion through to light offers into the 1.2280-1.2300 levels likely weak stops on a move through the level and the market quickly moving towards the 1.2340 level where stronger offs are likely to appear with some stop through the 1.2360 level opening the market to a test to the stronger 1.2380 level. Downside bids light through to the 1.2210-00 areas and some limited congestion thereafter until a push through the 1.2180 level opens the downside to stops and the market open to further downside weakness into the 1.2120 areas.
- GBP: Moving up from the 1.3910 areas and once above the 1.3920 level the market based along that level with minor attempts to push beyond the 1.3950 level late in the session but a half-hearted attempt at best. Media report hawkish BoE commentary with references to controlling inflation through interest rate hikes mooted as the reason for the strong rally yesterday, therefore the topside is particularly weak through to the 1.4000 level with minor offers around the level opening to stronger offers on a test to the 1.4050 areas, a break here will allow the market to quickly retake the 1.4100 areas with stronger offers likely just through the level and from there a steady grind through the congestion, Downside bids remain into the 1.3850 level an tested three times this month already, a break below the 1.3840 level will likely see stops and the market quickly covering longs and the market then opening as it move through to the 1.3800 level and very little in its way from there until the 1.36 handle.
- JPY: Volumes improved for the day with the market initially dipping through to test the 108.50 areas and bouncing higher and moving through the 109.00 level with a range around the 108.80-109.00 level through to the grey hours with a push above the 109.10 level turned again. Downside bids through the 108.30-40 level with those bids possibly extending through to the 108.00 level however a break through the recent lows around the 108.20 level could see the market dropping quickly with weak stops on a move through the and opening up a test through to the 107.50 level and the line in the sand before the market opens to deeper moves with the possibility of the 105.80-106.00 opening initially. Topside offers through the 109.50 level are likely to be light as with the congestive offers through to the 110.00 level to be little different, a push through the 110.40 level though could see the market awaken and a quick push back towards the 111.00 where stronger offers are suspected.
- AUD: A limited choppy session with the market ranging around the 0.7780 levels with a minor push to the 0.7760 levels with some limited stops triggered on the move before renewing contact with the opening levels, hovering around the support level the push through the 0.7760-40 levels and minor bids will likely see the 77 cent level challenged however, given the market in Oz is wrapping up this may be a struggle for the day and the market is likely to be limited unless London push at it. Topside offers light through the 78 cent level with weak stops on a breakthrough of the 0.7820 levels opening the market for a renewed test into the light 79 cent areas.
Overnight News
AUD:
I won’t be pushed to push up rates, says RBA Governor Philip Lowe
RBA condemns interest only loans
USD:
Dudley says decline in equity market today no economic implications
Dudley says so far stock selloff is small potatoes
Dudley says Global economy is doing fine
Dudley further gradual hikes meant more economic confidence
Dudley more confident FED needs to remove accommodation
Dudley says four 2018 hikes possible if economic outlook gains
Dudley says US possibly moving to trend of faster wage gains
Dudley says long term rates rising partly on FED rate outlook
US Senator Paul forces delay in voting on budget deal
US veers toward temporary shutdown as spending bill delayed
FED’s George says fiscal stimulus means rate hikes important
NZD:
NZ house price inflation was 6.4% in Jan QV
JPY:
BoJ rate speculation may cool after Abe adviser flags stock slide caution
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Jan A 3.40% | C 3.60% | P 3.60%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Home Loans M/M Dec A -2.30% | C -1.00% | P 2.10% | 1.60%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Monetary Policy Statement
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jan A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.80%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Jan A 4.30% | C 4.20% | P 4.90%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tertiary Industry Index M/M Dec A -0.20% | C 0.10% | P 1.10%
06:45Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jan C 3.00% | P 3.00%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Dec C -0.90% | P 0.40%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Dec C 0.40% | P 2.50%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production M/M Dec C 0.30% | P 0.40%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production Y/Y Dec C 1.20% | P 3.50%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Output M/M Dec C -0.10% | P 0.40%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Dec C -11.5B | P -12.2B
12:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â NIESR GDP Estimate Jan C 0.50% | P 0.60%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Change in Employment Jan C 10K | P 78.6K
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jan C 5.80% | P 5.70%
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories M/M Dec (F) C 0.20% | P 0.20%
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Opening around the 122.60 levels the market tested weakly lower through to the Tokyo open before rising slowly through to test the 1.2285 areas before dropping back through to the opening levels to start rising slowly again through into the grey hours, early London sparked a little with the market testing the 1.2295 levels but failing the level and dropping quickly back into the official opening and dipping through the 1.2250 levels with the German trade numbers showing better than expected but a drop from the last measure, the market continued to slip a little lower through the morning before holding quietly around the 1.2240 level, the market dipped to its lows with a quick movement after the BoE announcement with some EURGBP selling moving through to test just below the 1.2215 areas, the market bounced off the lows and quickly ran higher as the GBP moved quickly and the Euro again pushed to the 1.2295 levels before again hitting the same offers and slowly dropping back to below the 1.2250 levels, the market continued to chop around before moving into the close just below the 1.2250 level.
- GBP: Cable opened quietly around the 1.3870 levels and slowly rose through the session testing the 1.3900 level a couple of times before pushing through as the market moved to the grey hours, thin trading to the 1.3920 levels saw the market drift back again into the official opening and trading down to the supportive 1.3850 level before slowly rising back to the 1.3900 areas and the BoE decision, very little change in the general statements with talk of the economy requiring less support than it did with interest rates likely to continue at a gradual pace, Cable moved quickly off higher with the market pushing quickly above the 1.4000 level from the 1.3870 areas and then dipping and then steadily rising through into the NYK session to test towards the 1.4070 areas, the market then ran out of steam and started a slow drift back to the 1.4000 level and triggered weak stops on a dip back to the 1.3910 areas, before basing on the 1.3900 levels through to the close rising a little from that base.
- JPY: USJDPY slowly moved up through the Asian session initially holding around the opening levels after a minor dip to push to the 109.80 levels and range around the 109.65 areas through to the NYK news that so called budgetary victory was put off for another period of time and the USD dropped back through the closing in London to the 108.60 levels and into the supportive areas and holding to the close in an otherwise quiet session for the USDJPY.
- AUD: A quiet decline through the day saw the Asian markets holding around the opening 0.7820 level with a dip to the 0.7805 in midsession only to recover on the run to the grey hours, early London took the market to its highs just short of the 0.7845 levels before drifting back through the London session to extend the lows into the NYK opening, NYK took the market back through the opening levels but as the day moved on the dips increased until the market slipped through the 78 cent levels and balanced on the 0.7780 through to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBNZ Rate Decision A 1.75% | C 1.75% | P 1.75%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (JPY) Dec A 1.48T | C 1.66T | P 1.70T
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (USD) Jan A 20.3B | C 54.9B | P 54.7B
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CNY) Jan A 136B | C 325B | P 362B
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Jan A 8.00% | C 5.00% | P 8.00%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Q4 A 6 | P 7 | R 8
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eco Watchers Survey Current Jan A 49.9 | C 53.6 | P 53.9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Trade Balance Dec A 21.4B | C 21.0B | 23.7B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Economic Bulletin
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Rate Decision A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target Feb A 435B | C 435B | P 435B
GBP      MPC Official Bank Rate Votes A 0-0-9 | C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
GBP      MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes A 0-0-9 | C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Inflation Report
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Jan A 216K | C 211K | P 218K
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M Dec A 0.00% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (3 FEB) A 221K | C 236K | P 230K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A -119B | C -116B | P -99B
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