Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.018 | EURUSD 1.24502 | AUDUSD 0.79254 | NZDUSD 0.73453 | USDCAD 1.2492 | USDCHF 0.92932 | GBPUSD 1.39987 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.24735 | 1.2448
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 107.025 | 106.297
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.40218 | 1.3995
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.92942 | 0.92634
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79463 | 0.79038
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25030 | 1.24801
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73954 | 0.73631
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.15793 | 1.15481
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88998 | 0.88879
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 133.276 | 132.512
For today
- EUR: A quiet range through the Asian session with the Chinese New Year holidays beginning to bite, the market for the most part remained in the 1.2450-70 range with a declining movement around the 1.2460 level through into the grey hours however, volumes remained reasonably up beat considering, topside offers increasing the closer the market moves towards the 1.2500-20 areas with possible stronger stops on a test through the 1.2540 level and into the sentimental levels, with that congestion cleared there is a chance of a strong move towards the 1.2580-1.2600 level with increasing possibility of stronger stops opening the market to a move through light congestion into the 1.2700-1.2800 areas and of course to ECB commentary often accompanied by accusations of others doing wrong, Downside bids fairly light through to the 1.2300 levels light bids giving way to weak stops and a return to the stronger levels around the 1.2240-60 and then 1.2200 levels with stronger stops on a break below 1.2180 refocusing the market.
- GBP: The same with Cable with the market pushing through to the 1.4020 areas but unable to capitalize on the movement above 1.4000 in early trading but unwilling to dip back below the level, A long way to go to recapture the highs from the beginning of the month however, offers into the 1.4050 area is likely to slow any ascent before reaching the 1.4100 areas and a little stronger through to the 1.4120 areas where weak stops and the market seeing some interest to buy for the break however, the market is likely to see congestion continuing through to the 1.4150 levels and increasing in size as the market pushes for the 1.4200 level, downside bids light back through to the 1.3900 levels bids are likely to continue and increase on a move through the 1.3850-1.3800 level with stops possibly sitting now through the 1.3770 areas and opening the weaker downside.
- JPY: A range nearly worth mentioning with the opening levels positing the highs for the day so far, and a steady move through to the Tokyo session before dropping below the 106.50 levels and bouncing a little to push to 106.90 in a weak attempt to get back above the 107.00 level, it was short-lived and the market dipped back again ranging around the 106.50 levels through to the grey hours with a couple of attempts lower unable to push back to the lows and the range diminishing. Downside bids light through to the 106.20 areas then likely to see some sentimental bids through to the 105.90 levels and weak stops beyond with the market for the moment looking at the summer 16 ranges as a target however, this doesn’t take into account any yield plays entering the market but plenty of scope if they do, Topside offers likely to be light back through the 107.00 areas with possibly some limited congestion around the 107.50 areas and opening then to a stronger move back through the 108.00 level.
- AUD: Oz moved a touch higher through the session with Tokyo fix seeing some light supply of AUDJPY to take the market to the 0.7905 levels before recovering and pushing to the 0.7u945 areas before holding quietly around the 0.7940 level through to the grey hours, Downside bids into the 0.7780-60 areas with possible weak stops into that area will see the market opening to further weakness through to the 0.7710-00 level, topside offers into the 0.79060 level and likely congestion beyond that level with stronger offers through to the 80 cent level a push through the 0.8040 will likely see a mix of stops and sentimental selling absorbing the flow however, there is a potential of reaching towards the 81 cent level if there is enough impetus.
Overnight News
NZD:
NZ Jan Home sales rise 2.7% from year ago
ZAR:
ZAR strengthens to highs of day after Zuma resignation
USD:
Weakens on prediction of stronger growth and less fiscal risk in other markets
Trump is said to back 25 cent rise in Gas tax for infrastructure
JPY:
Japan Dec core machine orders fall 11.9% est. -2%
Aso: Yen strength isn’t abrupt enough now to intervene
Aso: Declines to comment on level of the Yen
Aso: Yen strength not strong enough to require intervention
Aso: Responds to question in parliament about the Yen’s level
IMF:
GBP will plummet on hard Brexit, IMF warns
EUR:
Currency cold war Donald Trump’s dangerous game Spiegel
EU seen set to change Brexit transition rule
EU said set to ease Brexit transition conditions with working party looking at watering down the mechanism to sanction the UK if it breaks EU rules
AUD:
Oz bulletproof (so far) despite jobless rate revision higher, large full time fall
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Orders M/M Dec A -11.90% | C -2.30% | P 5.70%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Feb A 3.60% | P 3.70%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Jan A 16.0K | C 15.2K | P 34.7K | R 33.5K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jan A 5.50% | C 5.50% | P 5.50% | R 5.60%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Dec (F) A 2.90% | C 2.70% | P 2.70%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Dec C 22.6B | P 22.5B
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Empire State Manufacturing Feb C 18 | P 17.7
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (10 FEB) C 227K | P 221K
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M Jan C 0.40% | P -0.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Jan C 2.50% | P 2.60%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core M/M Jan C 0.20% | P -0.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y Jan C 2.10% | P 2.30%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Feb C 21.6 | P 22.2
14:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Jan C 0.20% | P 0.90%
14:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization Jan C 78.00% | P 77.90%
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAHB Housing Market Index Feb C 72 | P 72
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P -119B
21:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Long-term TIC Flows Dec C 50.3B | P 57.5B
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Early Asia saw the market climb off the opening levels just above the 1.2350 areas and rise through to the 1.2390 level and hold in the 1.2370-90 areas through to the grey hours, the market was unimpressed by the GDP numbers with Germany at 2.9% vs. 3.0% est. while some of the other underwhelmed, the Euro drifted off through to the NYK session testing through the opening levels to the 1.2340 levels before the US numbers were released, a stronger CPI saw the USD push quickly higher with the Euro drop back quickly to the 1.2280 level before slowly recovering as the market absorbed the details of the numbers pushing through the opening levels and triggering weak stops on a move through to the 1.2370 levels and a steady run from there to the closing hour testing through the 1.2460 level and the close.
- GBP: A similar pattern through the day with the market quiet through early Asia with the market edging higher into Midsession to test the 1.3920 levels before drifting back into the London opening around the 1.3880 opening area, London saw the market testing through to the 1.3850 areas before finding some support through into the NYK session rising to the opening levels again and then dropping on the US numbers to the 1.3800 level the market moved steadily off the lows and moving quickly higher once through the 1.3850 levels back to the 1.3900 area and continuing slightly slower to the 1.3950 areas and a slow climb through the balance of the session pushing up to the 1.4000 level and waiting for the final hour before moving through the level.
- JPY: Comments that Kuroda accepted the new 5yr term reluctantly saw the USDJPY dropping off either as a consequence of Kuroda actually being in charge of the BoJ again or some strange manifestation of a reverse action to his reluctance, the market tested down from the early highs around the 107.90 levels and quickly dropped through the 107.50 level to 107.00 as weak stops were triggered and weak probing through to the 106.85 levels before reversing some of the losses and testing through to the London session regaining the 107.50 area, the move through the early part of London held close to the 107.50 area and only in the last couple of hours did the market drift a little into the NYK session, and the release of the US data, a quick stab higher from the 107.30 level was brief and quick before moving through to the 106.75 levels before holding quietly
- AUD: A quiet day for the Oz for the most part with the opening around the 0.7855 level rising through the midsession in Asia to 0.7885 before performing the same pattern as everyone else against the USD, a slow drift through into the NYK session saw the market drop quickly from the 0.7860 levels to test through the 0.7780 areas before moving off the level a little more steadily and rising on a push through 0.7820 quickly to the opening levels and again testing the highs and holding for a couple of hours before renewal of buying moved in to push the market steadily through the 79 cent level and grinding to 0.7930 area into the closing hour.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Feb A -2.30% | P 1.80%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q4 (P) A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.60%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Deflator Y/Y Q4 (P) A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.10% | R 0.20%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBNZ 2-Year Inflation Expectation Q1 A 2.10% | P 2.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GDP Q/Q Q4 (P) A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P 0.80%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Jan (F) A -0.70% | C -0.70% | P -0.70%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Jan (F) A 1.60% | C 1.60% | P 1.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Dec A 0.40% | C 0.10% | P 1.00% | R 1.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q4 (P) A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P 0.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Jan A 0.50% | C 30% | P 0.10% | R 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jan A 2.10% | C 1.90% | P 2.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M Jan A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P 0.30% | R 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y Jan A 1.80% | C 1.70% | P 1.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Advance M/M Jan A -0.30% | C 0.20% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Jan A 0.00% | C 0.50% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories Dec A 0.40% | C 0.30% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A 1.8M | C 2.8M | P 1.9M
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