Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 106.122 | EURUSD 1.25071 | AUDUSD 0.79456 | NZDUSD 0.73829 | USDCAD 1.2480 | USDCHF 0.9220 | GBPUSD 1.41002 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25561 | 1.24966
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 106.352 | 105.55
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.41451 | 1.40878
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.92292 | 0.91903
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79708 | 0.79342
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.24916 | 1.24606
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.74275 | 0.73899
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.15466 | 1.15244
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88832 | 0.88636
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 133.105 | 132.397
For today
- EUR: Early Euro was quiet with the market moving into the Tokyo session lifting off the 1.2505 areas to the 1.2515 areas, USD weakness reappeared in the form of USJPY selling and this left the Euro free to test quickly higher through to the 1.2540 level before spending the rest of the session pushing the sentimental areas, testing to the 1.2555 level the market holds the level through to the grey hours, Topside offers look to have almost been cleared with possible stops on a push through the 1.2560 and then light offers likely to be holding around the 1.2580 areas however, once cleared the 1.2600 level is likely to be very week with weak stops appearing and the stronger offers not expected until testing through to the 1.2660 level. Downside bids light through the 1.2500 and 1.2450 levels however, weak stops are likely to appear in those areas and the market opening to the stronger bids into the 1.2400 level.
- GBP: Cable moved quietly through the session and unlike the Euro pushed gradually through to the highs with early trading grinding above the 1.4100 level and holding above there for a period before again slowly rising through to the 1.4120 level and stalling again for a period before again rising this time to the 1.4140 levels and then holding through to the grey hours, Cable has room to move on the topside with stronger offers into the current 1.4150 levels and limited congestion likely to continue through to the Years highs with sentimental levels likely to contain some weak offers, a move through to the 1.4200 level is likely to see slightly stronger offers and weak stops on a push through the level, Downside bids light through the 1.4100 level with weak stops on a dip through the 1.2980 areas and then some congestion appearing on a dip into the 1.3950 areas and opening a run to the 1.3900 level.
- JPY: The USDJPY ranged quietly through the early part of the session comments from Aso triggered an adverse reaction in the USDJPY dropping quickly from the 106.20 areas to test quickly into the 105.50’s before finding some bids and rising into the grey hours around the 105.80 level. Downside bids through the 105.00 levels and likely to extend into the 104.80 areas and the market then into the 2016 ranges with the market seeing likely to see rumours abounding and short squeezes a very distinct possibility, with BoJ officials already talking about the FX markets require stability, a push through the 104.80 level again leaves sentimental levels vulnerable. Topside offers into the 105.80 likely to be light with weak stops on a push through the level and opening the market to a quick jab higher.
- AUD: The Oz drifted a little in early trading testing through to the 0.7935 areas before moving steadily back through the opening 0.7940 areas and pushing through to the 0.7970 areas in steady trading over the course of the session,
Overnight News
USD:
Fed to release monetary policy report to congress on Feb 23
Fed can’t legally save the world financial system in another Lehman type collapse
JPY:
Japan FinMin Aso: not conducting forex policy with specific levels in mind
Aso: No change in govt. stance to respond to FX moves as appropriate
Aso: FX stability very important
Japan looks to name reflationist academic to senior BoJ post
Japan Govt: nominates Wakatabe for deputy BoJ governor
Japan Govt: Nominates Amamiya for deputy BoJ governor
CNY:
China gets pushback on new rules to curb lending practices
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business NZ Manufacturing PMI Jan A 55.6 | P 51.2
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Jan C 0.60% | P -1.50%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Sales M/M Dec C 0.30% | P 3.40%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Securities Transactions (CAD) Dec P 19.56B
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index M/M Jan C 0.60% | P 0.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Jan C 1.23M | P 1.19M
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits Jan C 1.31M | P 1.30M
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Mich. Sentiment Feb (P) C 95.5 | P 95.7
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Opening around the 1.2455-60 levels the market struggled through a quiet Asian session holding the 1.2450-70 levels for the most part through to the grey hours, early London were steady buyers into the London opening and the market topped out around the 1.2510 areas which remained the high through the day, the market drifted back to the opening areas into the NYK session with the market ranging through the session between the 1.2460-1.2500 levels for the most part and the release of US numbers didn’t help the markets, the end of London saw some selling to the opening level and then once they’d left the market started to rise through to the highs for the move into the close.
- GBP: A quiet move through the Asian session ranging between the 1.4000-1.4020 level with the market edging to the 1.4020 through into the grey hours, the market lifted to the 1.4050 levels and held through into the early morning part of London with the market eventually testing to the 1.4080 levels just after the release of a stronger trade balance number in Europe, the move into the NYK saw the market moving slowly to the 1.4100 level but was unable to move through the level drifting back into the end of London testing back to the 1.4020 areas before starting a second move through to the close again testing slightly through 1.4100 and closing just above the level.
- JPY: Early trading saw the USDJPY dropping back from the opening around the 107.00 levels to test the 106.50 areas bouncing off the level and then returning again from the 106.90 levels the market continued to chop around the 106.50 levels with arranges around 30 pips through to the grey hours and the market again making fresh lows to the 106.20 level before trading through into the London session holding just below the 106.50 area, the move to the NYK session saw the market making an attempt to recover however, the market again struggled in the 106.80 areas and slipped slowly through early NYK testing again to the 106.20 level,
- AUD: The Oz traded choppily through the early part of the Asian session opening around the 0.7925 level and rising through to 0.7935 areas and dropping quickly lower on better inflationary numbers and mixed employment numbers, the market then ranged through the to the grey hours holding around the 0.7935 areas with the move into the grey hours showing some resilience and pushing through the 0.7950 levels triggering a small batch of weak stops and testing to the 0.7965 level to make the highs for the day, the move into the London session started to see fresh selling appearing and the market drifted to the 0.7950 areas with weak stops sending the market to the opening levels for the move into the NYK session, a quiet drift for several hours saw the market holding around the 0.7920 levels US numbers saw the Oz dip through to test the 79 cent levels trading to the 0.7895 areas before recovering and struggling to maintain the level, once the London market left for the day the Oz slowly started a steady recovery with a slow grind to the 0.7940 levels to finish the day
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Orders M/M Dec A -11.90% | C -2.30% | P 5.70%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Feb A 3.60% | P 3.70%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Jan A 16.0K | C 15.2K | P 34.7K | R 33.5K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jan A 5.50% | C 5.50% | P 5.50% | R 5.60%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Dec (F) A 2.90% | C 2.70% | P 2.70%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Dec A 23.8B | C 22.6B | P 22.5B | R 22.0B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Empire State Manufacturing Feb A 13.1 | C 18 | P 17.7
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (10 FEB) A 230K | C 227K | P 221K | R 223K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M Jan A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P -0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Jan A 2.70% | C 2.50% | P 2.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core M/M Jan A 0.40% | C 0.20% | R -0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y Jan A 2.20% | C 2.10% | R 2.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Feb A 25.8 | C 21.6 | P 22.2
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Jan A -0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization Jan A 77.50% | C 78.00% | P 77.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAHB Housing Market Index Feb A 72 | C 72 | P 72
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A -194B | C -193B | P -119B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Long-term TIC Flows Dec A 27.3B | C 50.3B | P 57.5B | R 57.7B
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.