Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 106.601 | EURUSD 1.24072 | AUDUSD 0.79129 | NZDUSD 0.73725 | USDCAD 1.25624 | USDCHF 0.92909 | GBPUSD 1.39991 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.24125 | 1.23794

USDJPY                 106.861 | 106.572

GBPUSD               1.40085 | 1.39677

USDCHF               0.93115 | 0.92871

AUDUSD              0.79340 | 0.78898

USDCAD               1.25852 | 1.25562

NZDUSD               0.73749 | 0.73483

EURCHF                1.15339 | 1.1523

EURGBP               0.88704 | 0.88553

EURJPY                 132.508 | 132.141

 

For today

  • EUR: Opening with a dip into the Tokyo session falling through the 1.2400 levels before the Tokyo fix saw the market again testing the opening around the 1.2410 level however, once the fix was over the market dropping straight back to the 1.2390 level and a slow drift through to make the lows just below the 1.2380’s, the move to the grey hours saw the market rising to hold around the 1.2390 in a very quiet session for the Euro. Bids into the 1.2350 levels with limited stops on a dip through and better bids into the 1.2300 levels and continual congestion on a move through the level with congestion centred around the 1.2250 areas and weakening towards the 1.2200 areas where bids start to increase, weak stops opening the market to a greater drop with very little appearing until the sentimental levels and limited then to the 1.2120 level. Topside offers light but congestive through the 1.2450 level with offers likely to increase the closer the market moves to the 1.2500 area with offers likely to continue through to the 1.2550 areas and weak stops on a break through the 1.2560 level and the market likely to run into stronger offers from the 1.2590 level.
  • GBP: Cable opened above the 1.4000 areas and immediately drifted off from the level testing through to the 1.3970 levels before holding steadily around the level through to the grey hours, Volumes still not back to the norm over the day so far, Topside offer light through to the 1.4020 areas with congestion then increasing on any move through to the 1.4050 levels and half decent offers protecting the level, stops on a break through the level will again see stronger offers then appearing on a push through the 1.4100 level and into the 1.4150 area with strong offers likely from then on. Downside bids light through to the 1.3950 level with congestive bids likely to continue through to the 1.3900 level with better bids and likely to increase through to the 1.3850 level.
  • JPY: A quiet raise through to the 106.85 areas on a limited range for the USDJPY having opened around the 106.60 level and making the low on the opening, the market then drifted from the highs to hold quietly through to the grey hours around the 106.75 level. Topside offers light through to the 107.00 level, weak stops on a push through the 107.20 areas are likely to be light with some better offers into the 107.50 level before opening to quickly test the 108.00 levels, downside bids light into the 106.00 level however, stronger bids are likely to appear on a test towards the 105.50 areas with weak stops on a break through the level and the market quickly targeting the 105.00-104.90 areas where better bids and stops again appear on a move through.
  • AUD: Opening around the 0.7910 areas the market saw some moves into the Tokyo session however, even though the RBA announcement was limited and more or less in line with expectations the market dipped quickly through to the 0.7890 level before bouncing and initially rising slowly back through the 79 cent areas, AUDNZD 200DMA saw the Oz quickly move higher as the level broke and tested above the 0.7930 level holding for a few hours before dropping back again as the market approached the grey hours to move towards the opening levels. Offers into the 0.7980 level through to the 80 cent areas, with some congestive offers likely to continue through the level and limited stops above the 0.8040 level, through the level sees the congestion continuing with increasing offers into the 81 cent levels and the 0.8140 areas likely to be the key level for a move beyond. Downside bids light through the 79 cent level with the market then opening to stronger bids into the 0.7850 level with those bids likely to continue through to the 78 cent areas and beyond.

 

Overnight News

GBP:

UK has secret plan to halt Brexit cash if EU refuses trade

USD:

Tudor veteran says just a little more inflation could rock bonds

EUR:

ECB vice president likely to prefer tighter monetary policy

Political risk rises in Italy as anti-Euro rebels flirt with real power

Eurozone all at sea over root causes of downturn

German politics enters era of instability – Speigel

German coalition result may come in today

NZD:

NZ House price expectations fall to 6 ½ year low

CHF:

SNB policy normalization not on table for now, Jordan says

AUD:

RBA’s Bullock says Australian mortgage stress relatively low

Australia weekly consumer confidence falls 3.5% to 115.3

JPY:

Over half of Japan firms do not plan base pay rise this year – RTRS poll

Japan urges local banks to review foreign bond management – Asahi

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

NZD       PPI Input Q/Q Q4 A 0.90% | C 0.30% | P 1.00% | R 1.10%

NZD       PPI Output Q/Q Q4 A 1.00% | C 0.40% | P 1.00%

AUD       RBA February Meeting Minutes

07:00     EUR        German PPI M/M Jan C 0.50% | P 0.20%

07:00     EUR        German PPI Y/Y Jan C 1.80% | P 2.30%

07:00     CHF        Trade Balance (CHF) Jan C 2.78B | P 2.63B

10:00     EUR        German ZEW Economic Sentiment Feb C 16 | P 20.4

10:00     EUR        German ZEW Current Situation Feb C 94 | P 95.2

10:00     EUR        Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Feb C 28.4 | P 31.8

11:00     GBP       CBI Trends Total Orders Feb C 11 | P 14

13:30     CAD       Wholesale Trade Sales M/M Dec C 0.40% | P 0.70%

15:00     EUR        Eurozone Consumer Confidence Feb (A) C 1 | P 1.3

 

Harry Hindsight

  • EUR: A very quiet day overall with the market closed in several countries including China and the US leaving liquidity a little thin, the market opened around the 1.2410 areas and made highs in the first steady push through to the 1.2435 levels before starting a slow drift through to the grey hours, early selling moved into the market from east Europeans before the early London markets reversing that dip through the 1.2400 level the move into the full session pushing through to the 1.2425 levels towards the opening NYK session, the move into the bank holiday US market saw the market quickly dip lower as limited selling saw limited buying and the market moved to the 1.2370 level before a slow recover through to the opening levels to the end of the day.
  • GBP: Opening unchanged from Friday the market saw a steady rise through the Asian session with the market pushing to the 1.4050 levels before struggling with the level and drifting slowly back to the opening levels for the move into the grey hours, weak buying into the grey hours saw the market drop back to the 1.4000 levels on the move into the London session holding through the morning part of the session before rising slowly through to the opening levels around 1.4030 and into the non-existent NYK session and dropping quickly back in light trading to test through to the 1.3960 level before holding and returning to hold quietly above the 1.4000 level through to the close.
  • JPY: USDJPY drifted from the opening slipping from the opening levels around the 106.40 area to test into the Tokyo session pushing the 106.10 level, the failure at the lows saw a slow buy steadily climb through into the morning session in London pushing the 106.65 areas before drifting a little into the NYK session, a limited rise from the opening saw the market testing a new level to just above the 106.70 areas before drifting off a little and holding quietly through to the close just above the 106.50 areas.
  • AUD: A quiet range throughout the day, with the market testing to early highs through the Tokyo morning to push towards the 0.7935 level before drifting back to hold around the 0.7920 areas for the move into the grey hours and a mild move into the London session with the market testing back to the opening levels just above the 0.7900 level and then moving through towards the 0.7935 level again to range through to NYK in the 0.7920-30 areas, NYK sold the market from the opening and a test to the 0.7900 areas to make the lows before rising back to hold the 0.7910 level in a long run to the close.

 

Yesterday’s premiership results

JPY         Trade Balance Jan A 0.37T | C 0.14T | P 0.09T

GBP       Rightmove House Prices M/M Feb A 0.80% | P 0.70%

EUR        Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Dec A 29.9B | C 30.5B | P 32.5B | R 35.0B

 

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