Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.777 | EURUSD 1.222832 | AUDUSD 0.78041 | NZDUSD 0.73452 | USDCAD 1.27027 | USDCHF 0.93902 | GBPUSD 1.39178 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.22866 | 1.2265
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 107.780 | 107.155
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.39201 | 1.38974
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.93983 | 0.93812
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78118 | 0.77907
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.27061 | 1.26908
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73233 | 0.73079
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.15382 | 1.15214
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88327 | 0.8823
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 132.358 | 131.574
For today
- EUR: A reasonably quiet session with the market dipping from the early move to the 1.2285 areas testing through to the 1.2265 area before ranging quietly back to the opening level and drifting into the grey hours holding the 1.2275 level, Downside bids into the 1.2240-20 areas with weak stops likely on a break through the 1.2180 level, with light bids around the sentimental 1.2150 areas with stronger bids likely to appear into the 1.2120 level and through to the 1.2080 level, topside offers light through the 1.2300 levels with some stronger offers into the 1.2350 level and congestion likely to continue through to the 1.2400 areas and stronger offers.
- GBP: No different for the Cable with the market holding quietly through the Asian session with only a brief dip through the 1.3900 levels and generally holding around the opening area through to the grey hours, strong congestion through the downside into the 1.3850 levels is likely to continue through to the 1.3800 level and stronger bids possibly present, a push through to the 1.3760 level will likely see stronger stops appearing and the market possibly seeing stronger selling pushing towards the downside. Topside offers light through to the 1.3950 level with congestion building through to the 1.4000 and better offers likely to appear.
- JPY: Opening around the 107.75 area the market dipped on the opening in Tokyo with the need to buy USD now diminished as the last of the US auctions finished, the market recovered into the Tokyo fix before dropping again on weak selling to test through to the 107.15 areas and then slowly rising through to the grey hours pushing to the 107.40 areas. Topside offers into the 107.90 level with those weak offers likely to allow the market to continue through to the 108.50 level and some stronger congestion appearing on any move towards the 108.80-109.00 levels, downside bids light through the 107.00 area with weak stops on a move through the 106.80 areas and opening a quick move through a weak downside to the 106.00 levels and stronger bids through to the 105.80 levels where stops appear. Talk of yield buyers willing to buy below the 105 level will likely see some willingness to support the market on any weakness.
- AUD: Very quiet for the Oz with the market holding around the opening 0.7800 areas dipping towards the 0.7790 level and returning to the open and gradually pushing through to the grey hours testing above the 0.7810 area. Downside bids into the 0.7780 level likely to be reasonably strong with stops appearing on a move through the 0.7760 area, sentimental bids likely to be light and unable to absorb the markets selling and opening up the market to a test back to the 77 cent level and possibly a better area for the bids. Topside offers light through to the 0.7850 areas with weak offers only and the market open to further probes to the 79 cent area where stronger offers are likely to appear with congestion likely through to the 0.7940 levels with lighter congestion thereafter.
Overnight News
USD:
FED officials marked up growth, inflation outlook in January WSJ
Trump infrastructure plan gets $2T nudge from Australia BN
GBP:
Cabinet did not agree to Theresa May’s strategy for Brexit transition – UKT
CNY:
Chinese New Year spending grows 10% the lowest since 2005
JPY:
Asakawa BoJ easing isn’t aimed at weakening Yen
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO Business Climate Feb C 117 | P 117.6
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO Expectations Feb C 107.9 | P 108.4
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO Current Assessment Feb C 127 | P 127.7
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q4 (P) C 0.50% | P 0.50%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M Dec C 0.50% | P 0.40%
11:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Reported Sales Feb C 14 | P 12
12:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (17 FEB) C 231K | P 230K
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Dec C Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.10% | P 0.20%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Dec C 0.00% | P 1.60%
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index Jan C 0.70% | P 0.60%
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage C -194B
16:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories C 1.8M
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet range through to the FOMC meeting minutes, opening around the 1.2335 level and ranging deep into the Tokyo session around the level before starting to drop away and into the grey hours pushing below the 1.2320 areas before recovering on early European buying, London were quick sellers pushing through to the 1.2310 areas and holding that low through to the NYK session, NYK sold the market down to the 1.2300 in a weak push lower and ranging to the opening level through to the FOMC, a mixed review with early readings seen apprehension with talk of inflationary lag and the Euro quickly pushing to the 1.2360 level before dropping quickly as the with stronger data and the impact of the tax overhaul so further rate hikes to come and the Euro dropping quickly through to the 1.2280’s and a slow drift to the close.
- GBP: Cable moved a little higher from the opening and tested weakly through to the 1.4005 areas before starting a slow drift through the session as the USD buying continued through the session, the move towards the grey hours saw the market testing through to the 1.3975 areas before seeing some light recovery with early London running the market towards the 1.4000 area again before slow selling pressure moved into the market, the UK employment numbers ran as normal and the PSBR number surprising, with average weekly earnings unaltered the Cable slipped lower testing to the 1.3930 levels before bouncing back to the previous level and then continuing its slide lower at a more sedately pace holding the 1.3905 through into the NYK session, the market moved quickly off the lows pushing in two waves through to the 1.3990 level, the market again fell back into the London close before slowly rising through to the FOMC, the market rose quickly to post to the high of the day just pushing through the early high and then dropped quickly as the USD pushed quickly again testing to the 1.3905 areas before holding quietly to the close around the 1.3920 level.
- JPY: Opening around the 107.30 level the market steadily moved higher through into the Tokyo session pushing to mid-session testing the 107.90 levels before holding quietly in a tight range through to the London session, the move into the London session saw the market correcting back to the 107.50 levels and then ranging through into the NYK session around the 107.50 levels, the move into the FOMC saw the market dip back to the opening levels before bouncing quickly through to test the 107.90 level for the second time and ranging to a close just below the 107.80 areas.
- AUD: Early gains were quickly reversed as the USD buying continued through the session, the Oz dropped from just above the high of 79 cent before drifting to the grey hours pushing the 0.7850 levels and then holding around that level all the way through to the end of London with a limited dip through to the 0.7830 areas before bouncing off on the FOMC testing to the 0.7880 level before dropping back quickly to the 0.7805 and ranging in the area to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wage Price Index Q/Q Q4 A 0.60% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Work Done Q4 A -19.40% | C -10.00% | P 15.70% | R 16.60%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Feb (P) A 54 | C 55.2 | P 54.8
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â All Industry Activity Index M/M Dec A 0.50% | C 0.40% | P 1.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Feb (P) A 56.1 | C 58 | P 58.4
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Feb (P) A 57.9 | C 59 | P 59.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Feb (P) A 60.3 | C 60.5 | P 61.1
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Feb (P) A 55.3 | C 57 | P 57.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Feb (P) A 58.5 | C 59.2 | P 59.6
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Feb (P) A 56.7 | C 57.6 | P 58
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change Jan A -7.2K | C 2.3K | P 8.6K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate Jan A 2.30% | P 2.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Dec A 2.50% | C 2.50% | P 2.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Dec A 4.40% | C 4.30% | P 4.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Public Sector Net Borrowing Jan A -11.6B | C -11.0B | P 1.0B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Manufacturing PMI Feb (P) A 55.9 | C 55.5 | P 55.5
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Services PMI Feb (P) A 55.9 | C 54 | P 53.3
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Existing Home Sales Jan A 5.38M | C 5.63M | P 5.57M | R 5.56M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Meeting Minutes
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