Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.754 | EURUSD 1.23306 | AUDUSD 0.78458 | NZDUSD 0.73498 | USDCAD 1.27053 | USDCHF 0.93288 | GBPUSD 1.39554 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.23375 | 1.22956
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 107.034 | 106.659
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.39643 | 1.3940
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.93563 | 0.93215
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78489 | 0.78171
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.27261 | 1.26926
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73453 | 0.72896
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.15057 | 1.14982
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88378 | 0.88154
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 131.847 | 131.495
For today
- EUR: Opening around the 1.2330 levels the market made early gains to the 1.2335 areas before slowly drifting through the session through to the 1.2300 areas for the move into the grey hours, comments from ECB on the face of it would seem bullish however, the USD seems to have become more buoyant. Topside offers into the 1.2350 levels are likely to be limited however, through the level the market is likely to become more stubborn with a push through the 1.2360 level seeing some weakness but quickly replaced into the 1.2380-1.2400 with stronger offers with congestion likely to be continuous through on to the 1.24 handle, downside bids light through to the congestion into the 1.2260 areas with that congestion likely to continue through to the stronger bid into the 1.2200 areas, with weak stops possibly strong into the 1.2260 levels.
- GBP: A very quiet session for the Cable slipping back from the opening around the 1.3955 level and drifting to test the 1.3940 level in very quiet trading, the market spent most of the session moving around the 1.3950 level with very little movement. Weak topside offers into the 1.4000 level with congestion into the level and then through to the 1.4050 level, weak stops are likely on a move through the level and the market then opening to the 1.4120 areas with possibly stronger offers in the areas with stops likely on a move through the level and opening to weak congestion through to the sentimental levels around 1.4150 and 1.4200. Downside bids light through the 1.3900 level with those bids likely to increase on a push through the 1.3850 levels and into the 1.3800 level in particular.
- JPY: Opening around the 106.75 level and slowly rose through into the Tokyo session testing the 107.00 level however, although the market continued to press the level through the session spending much of the time around the 106.90 levels before testing back to the highs on the move into the grey hours, topside offers light through to the 107.80 level where stronger offers start to appear in the market with a break through the 108.00 level is likely to see weak stops appearing and the market congested above the 108.50 level with stronger offers towards the 109.00 level. Downside bids light through the 106.50 level with some bids likely to appear on a move through the level and the market opening to the 106.00 level with stronger bids likely through to the 105.60 areas weak stops through the 105.50 areas are likely to be sufficient for a test through to the stronger 105.00-104.90 areas
- AUD: A very quiet range for the Oz with the market trading slowly lower through the session to test the 0.7820 level having opened around the 0.7845 area, the move into the grey hours saw the market holding the lows and rising a touch as it moved into the period, Downside bids into the 0.7800-0.7780 levels seeing some stronger bids with a move through the 0.7760 level seeing stops appearing and the market quickly dipping to test the 77 cent level with congestion through that level, Topside offers light through to the 79 cent level with weak stops meeting congestion and a struggle through to the 0.7940 levels and stronger offers awaiting.
Overnight News
GBP:
UK Government patches up splits and agree vital negotiating positions
NZD:
Retail sales rose more than forecast for 4th Qtr
USD:
Manafort faces new counts of tax, bank fraud in Russia probe
Mnuchin says Trump policies will raise wages without inflation
EUR:
ECB’s Smets says era of very low volatility has apparently ended
Smets: Euro strength, volatility not yet a concern
Smets: ECB has full confidence it’ll reach inflation goal
JPY:
With Kuroda staying at BoJ, Japanese to issue long debt
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Inflation Q/Q Q4 A 1.70% | C 1.30% | P 0.20% | R 0.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â National CPI Core Y/Y Jan A 0.90% | C 0.80% | P 0.90%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Corporate Service Price Y/Y Jan A 0.70% | C 0.80% | P 0.80%
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GDP Q/Q Q4 (F) C 0.60% | P 0.60%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI M/M Jan C -0.90% | P 0.40%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jan (F) C 1.30% | P 1.40%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Jan (F) C 1.00% | P 1.00%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Jan C 0.50% | P -0.40%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jan C 1.50% | P 1.90%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core – Common Y/Y Jan P 1.60%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core – Median Y/Y Jan P 1.90%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core – Trim Y/Y Jan P 1.90%
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet Asian session with the USD buying subsiding now all the US auctions are out of the way, the market opened around the 1.2285 levels and slipping a little through to the 1.2265 levels before returning to the opening levels and holding around the 1.2280 areas through to the grey hours, light selling in the grey hours saw the market test to the lows around the 1.2260 areas before starting a slow steady rise through the morning in London taking the market through to the 1.2300 levels before again drifting back through the opening levels on the move to the NYK session, ECB monetary policy meeting held nothing special with a minor gyration and a spike higher with comments about meeting inflationary targets, NYK saw USD selling moving into the market and the Euro driving through to the 1.2335 levels in limited volume and stalling around the level through the rest of the session, occasional pushes above the level saw the market testing the 1.2350 level however the test was limited and soon returned to range around the 1.2325-35 level through to the close.
- GBP: Asia was a similar story with the Cable holding around the 1.3900-10 levels through to the grey hours, selling into the grey hours saw the market testing through to the 1.3870 level and apart from what the UK media said on the numbers the preliminary GDP number is still just preliminary however, the dip lower saw the market testing the 1.3860 level to make the lows and then started the same steady rise through into the NYK session pushing through to hold the 1.3950 areas through to the end of London, the close in London saw the market testing quickly through to the 1.3990 level on a quick spike before slipping back and ranging around the 1.3950-60 areas to the close.
- JPY: Opening on its highs the market drifted off the 107.75 levels moving into the Tokyo session renewing the USD selling and the market tested through to the 107.20 level and starting a slow recovery through to the early London part of the grey hours, testing through to the 107.60 area, the move into the London session proper saw the market again drifting lower and holding quietly through the London morning holding the 107.35 level before moving into the hour before NYK renewing the move lower falling back to the 106.65 level, US numbers saw limited movement however, without the bond buying the USD could do little and although it did recover to the 107.00 level during the move to the close in London the market renewed its test of the lows through to the close of the session.
- AUD: A slow recovery for the Oz over the course of the day, opening around the 0.7800 level and ranging around that level deep into the Tokyo session before slowly edging a little higher into the grey hours, early sellers took the market back to the opening levels but were not able to test the 0.7790 lows again and once into the London session the market start a slow drive higher holding the 0.7820 areas through to the NYK session where the buying increased trading through to the 0.7860 level and the end of the London session before drifting to a close around the 0.7845 levels.
Yesterday’s premiership results
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO Business Climate Feb A 115.4 | C 117 | P 117.6
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO Expectations Feb A 105.4 | C 107.9 | P 108.4 | R 108.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO Current Assessment Feb A 126.3 | C 127 | P 127.7 | R 127.8
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q4 (P) A 0.40% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M Dec A 0.60% | C 0.50% | P 0.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Reported Sales Feb A 8 | C 14 | P 12
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (17 FEB) A 222K | C 231K | P 230K | R 229K
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Dec A -0.80% | C -0.10% | P 0.20% | R 0.30%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Dec A -1.80% | C 0.00% | P 1.60% | R 1.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index Jan A 1.00% | C 0.70% | P 0.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A -124B | C -121B | P -194B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -1.6M | C 2.2M | P 1.8M
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