Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 106.068 | EURUSD 1.24109 | AUDUSD 0.78234 | NZDUSD 0.72716 | USDCAD 1.2912 | USDCHF 0.94347 | GBPUSD 1.39036 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.24158 | 1.2396
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 106.207 | 105.929
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.39096 | 1.38969
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.94406 | 0.94277
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78390 | 0.78156
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29229 | 1.28674
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72977 | 0.72731
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.17153 | 1.16946
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89292 | 0.89176
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 131.837 | 131.412
For today
- EUR: A quiet session overall with the market dipping into the early morning Tokyo session from the opening 1.2412 areas to test through the 1.2400 areas and basing around that level for several hours before slowly rising back above the level and holding through to the grey hours just below the opening area, Topside congestive offers through the 1.2440-60 areas with very little weakness expected on the move through the level with strong offers likely to appear again into the 1.2500 areas however, with the years highs being close around the 1.2550-60 area the market could see a renewed push towards the level but one would suspect a lot of grinding to get there. Downside bids light through to the 1.2380 areas with weak stops on a move through the level opening the market to the congestive 1.2350 areas with bids continuing to build through to the 1.2300 level weak stops on a move through the 1.2280 level will likely see stronger bids starting to appear and any move lower as constricted as the topside movement.
- GBP: Cable ranged in a very quiet range through the session with the market centred on the opening level and struggling throughout for direction, testing through the 1.3900 level on brief occasions but unable to push beyond the 1.3910 levels, Topside offers through the 1.3940-50 areas likely to increase on any move towards the 1.4000 level however, even through the level the market is likely to be congestive with possible weak stops appearing above the level however, a push towards the 1.4050 level would need something special and one suspects its not going to be the ECB. downside weak bids through the 1.3860 level leaves the market open to a test of the 1.3800 with this level likely to be the strongest area with a push through to the 1.3750 level slowing any descent towards 1.3700 where stops are likely to be strongest on a break lower.
- JPY: Initially ranging through the session in a narrow band around the 106.20-05 areas with initial gains into the Tokyo session opening the range then started to constrict with the market remaining just above the opening, the move into the last couple of hours into the grey hours saw the market slowly drifting through the 106.00 levels and holding quietly, Topside offers into the 107.00 level with light congestion through 106.50 on the way however a push above will likely see some weak stops and the market quickly testing the 107.50 levels with stronger offers on any push towards the 107.80-108.00 areas and limited numbers for the day likely dampening any enthusiasm. Downside bids through to the 105.50 levels still in play as the market takes this consolidation into its first full week of trading, a dip through the 105.20 area will likely see sellers appearing to try and push through stronger bids and any awaiting stops below the 104.80 areas, this opens the potential for a larger drop with the sentimental values the only thing defending the downside.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7825 areas the market initially drifted lower testing to the lows around the 0.7815 areas before the recovering into the Tokyo session to those opening levels again, the market was boosted by the CNY trade balance numbers and testing through towards the 0.7840 levels and the highs from yesterday before ranging around the 0.7830 levels through to the grey hours in dull trading. No real difference to yesterday’s assessment with the market remaining fairly static, Downside bids inot the 0.7720 levels with a push through the 77 cent level opening the market to a dip into the 0.7660-40 areas and stronger congestive bids slowing any further descent but pushing firmly into ranges from 2016-17 period. Topside offers into the 0.7850 slowing the market however a strong push through the 0.7880 level will likely see the 79 cent level becoming a target and possible weak stops on a move through the level and congestive offers reappearing on any test into the 0.7930 areas.
Overnight News
USD:
Overheating arrives: Beige book finds prices, wages rising in most districts
Prices in all districts
Anecdotes persistent labour market tightness
Wage growth picks up to moderate pace in many districts
Tight labour markets drive employers to raise wages in most districts
Trump expected to formally sign off on planned tariffs on Thursday NYT
The trade deficit trump wants to fix may only worsen WSJ
US Tariff increases will temporarily exempt Canada and Mexico
NZD:
NZ traffic gauge signals softer GDP growth from Mid 2018 ANZ
TRY:
Moody’s downgrades Turkey’s sovereign ratings to Ba2 from Ba1
EUR:
Whoever governs Italy will destroy the Euro from within UKT
CNY:
China Feb. exports rise 36.2% YoY in Yuan terms Est 7.4%
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Activity Q4 A 2.80% | P 0.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (JPY) Jan A 2.02T | C 1.76T | P 1.48T | R 1.68T
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Deflator Y/Y Q4 (F) A 0.10% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Feb A 0% | C 7% | P 8%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Jan A 1.06B | C 0.22B | P -1.36B | R -1.15B
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (USD) Feb A 33.7B | C -8.5B | P 20.3B
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CNY) Feb A 225B | C -71B | P 136B
06:45Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Feb C 2.90% | P 3.00%
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Factory Orders M/M Jan C -1.60% | P 3.80%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Feb C -2.80%
12:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision C 0.00% | P 0.00%
13:15Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Feb C 220K | P 216K
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M Jan P 0.00%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Jan P 4.80%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 3) C 216K | P 210K
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P -78B
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Overall the day was limited however, the opening saw a quick move as the news that a senior economic advisor had resigned from Trumps team, the Euro rose quickly away from the opening around 1.2405 to test quickly towards the 1.2430 levels before drifting through the balance of the session holding above 1.2410 and moving into the grey hours around the 1.2420 levels, the move into the grey hours saw a repeat performance with the market pushing quickly into the early London traders to test to above the previous highs however, those early London players soon turned the market back to the opening levels for the move into the official opening, the move to the Eurozone GDP number saw the number unchanged for the final release and the market pushed steadily through to the 1.2440 levels and into the awaiting offers before dropping back again for the run into the NYK session extending the lows through the 1.2400 level for the first time, some chop through the NYK session with NF productivity numbers disappointing but balanced by better than expected ADP employment figures to give the USD some limited boost, the Euro maintained contact with the opening levels through to the end of London with the market selling back to the mid 1.2380’s before starting a slow rise through to the close and more or less unchanged on the day.
- GBP: A similar day for the GBP with USD’s dominating the market through the session, Cable rising from the opening to push through the 1.3900 levels and testing light towards the 1.3910 areas and then struggling through the Tokyo session holding broadly around the 1.3890 levels and the open for the move into the grey hours, light selling as the market moved into that period saw early eastern Europe buyers in the market and the market making a quick push above the 1.3910 areas before dropping quickly back as Brexit continues to weigh on the GBP, dropping back into the London open to the 1.3880 level before slowing and drifting through to early morning, the market took another tumble in mid-morning, with some weak stops on the way but held the 1.3850 areas through to the NYK session and starting a slow recovery through the balance of the session to push back through the 1.3900 levels for the run to the close.
- JPY: USDJPY took the brunt of the USD selloff after the news of the resignation and quickly dropped to the 105.50 levels and struggled with the level for an hour or so before starting a slow rise back through the 105.70 levels and eventually testing to the 105.85 areas, the run to the grey hours saw the market drifting again towards the 105.50 area running into the grey hours pushing towards the level but holding through too deep into the London session, the move towards the NYK session saw the market rising slowly back to 105.80, NYK opening saw the market push quickly back towards the 106.00 levels and range around the level through to the mid-session and pushing to the end of London to test the opening levels around the 106.20 areas before dropping back quickly once London closed for the day, even so the fall was not as deep as Tokyo’s and the market pushed back off the 105.85 levels for a long steady rise back to the 106.10 areas for the close.
- AUD: The drop in USDJPY cross selling come into the market and in particular AUDJPY with the Oz dropping from the opening around the 0.7825 level through to the lows of the day just above 0.7770, having hit the lows so early the rest of the Asian session regaining the 0.7800 level and holding through into the NYK session initially testing back to the opening levels, the end of London saw some weak selling sending the market back through the 78 cent level before again pushing to the close to test just above the opening levels and the high.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q4 A 0.40% | C 0.50% | P 0.60% | R 0.70%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index CI Jan (P) A 104.8 | C 106.1 | P 107.4
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Feb A 733B | C 735B | P 731B | R 732B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q4 (F) A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P 0.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change Feb A 235K | C 200K | P 234K | R 244K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Nonfarm Productivity Q4 (F) A 0.00% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unit Labour Costs Q4 (F) A 2.50% | C 2.10% | P 2.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Jan A -56.6B | C -52.6B | P -53.1B | R -53.9B
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Labour Productivity Q/Q Q4 A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P -0.60% | R -0.50%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Jan A -1.91B | C -2.50B | P -3.2B | R -3.05B
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Rate Decision A 1.25% | C 1.25% | P 1.25%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A 2.4M | C 2.6M | P 3.0M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Federal Reserve Beige Book
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