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All the latest business and technology views and insights on the FX industry from LMAX Exchange management and staff

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Daily FX Market Commentary

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 106.415 | EURUSD 1.23351 | AUDUSD 0.78723 | NZDUSD 0.72909 | USDCAD 1.28428 | USDCHF 0.9756 | GBPUSD 1.39055 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.23455 | 1.23253

USDJPY                 106.849 | 106.254

GBPUSD               1.39130 | 1.38876

USDCHF               0.94844 | 0.94659

AUDUSD              0.78849 | 0.78668

USDCAD               1.28509 | 1.28327

NZDUSD               0.73256 | 0.72937

EURCHF                1.16928 | 1.16793

EURGBP               0.88756 | 0.88703

EURJPY                 131.689 | 131.123

 

For today

  • EUR: Opening quietly the market tested into the Tokyo session pushing through to the 1.2345 areas before drifting off from the level to push through the opening levels to test slowly through to the 1.2325 areas and into the grey hours, Topside offers through to the 1.2360 levels are likely to be weak with better offers then starting to increase into the 1.2380-1.2400 areas with congestive offers likely through the level and into the 1.2440 areas, a push through the level will likely see stronger offers the closer the market moves towards the 1.2500 level with possibly very strong offers into and through the level. Downside bids into the 1.2300 levels congestive but weak and the market moving through the 1.2280 level is likely to see weak stops appearing and the market opening to light congestion through the 1.2250 areas with stronger bids appearing on a dip through to the 1.2220 level and through the figure, a break of the 1.2180 level is possibly the key to the downside with stops through the 1.2160 level and limited interest until closer to 1.2120.
  • GBP: Pushing from the opening to test above the 1.3912 level the market slipped slowly lower through the balance of the session falling to the 1.3890 levels and holding quietly through to the grey hours, Topside congestion through the 1.3950 levels will likely increase the closer the market moves towards the 1.4000 levels however, while there may be some weak stops on a move through the market is likely to remain congested on any attempt to the 1.4050 level with a limited area of resistance before the topside opens for further gains. Downside bids light through to the 1.3850 levels with limited bids on a push through this level and increasing only on a push through the 1.3800 levels with congestive bids likely to run from that point down into the 1.3750 levels where stronger bids are suspected, a dip through the level could see weak stops appearing and the market then vulnerable through the 1.3700 where better bids are possible.
  • JPY: USD buying lightly through the session saw the USDJPY initially testing to the 106.25 areas before starting a slow rise back through the opening levels and testing through to the 106.85 areas before drifting a little into the grey hours, Topside offers into the 106.80-107.00 levels with a push through the 107.20 area likely to see weak stops appearing and a push through to the weak 107.50 levels however, the closer the market moves towards the 108.00 level the stronger the resistance is likely to be with only inflationary data in the US to come. Downside bids light into the 106.00 levels but some congestion, with weak stops not likely to appear unless the market can break the stronger support into and just through the 105.40 areas, weak bids then continue through the 105.00 level but stronger stops are likely on a test through the 104.80 areas and the market opens up for a deeper move.
  • AUD: Early trading saw the market pushing a little below the 0.7870 levels before rising as AUDJPY buying moved into the session and the Tokyo market slowly took the Oz through the 0.7880 levels to struggle just above, the failure in light trading saw the market drift slowly lower with weak stops on a push back through the opening levels to again test through the 0.7868 areas before moving into the grey hours above the opening level again. Topside offers through the 79 cent levels with congestion likely to continue through to the 0.7920 levels and opening a quick test to the 0.7940-60 areas with limited congestion and the offers then reappearing on any push through towards the 0.7980-0.8000 levels with possibly strong congestion through the level. Downside bids light through to the 0.7820 level before some bids start to appear in earnest, a push through the level will likely see the bids continuing until the 0.7780 level breaks with weak stops possible before stronger support into the 0.7750 areas.

 

Overnight News

NZD:

RBNZ McDermott supports macro prudential policy

USD:

Trumps trade war may cost world GDP $470B by 2020 – BBG

Trump issues order to block Broadcom’s takeover of Qualcomm

AUD:

NAB under fire as Australian banking inquiry opens

Australian probe of bank sector misconduct begins with focus on home loans

JPY:

Japan’s embattled finance minister mulls skipping G-20 meeting

Pressure grows on Japan’s Abe over scandal as support melts

GBP:

FinMin to give brighter outlook for UK’s Brexit bound economy

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

JPY         Domestic CGPI Y/Y Feb A 2.50% | C 2.50% | P 2.70%

AUD       Home Loans M/M Jan A -1.10% | C -0.20% | P -2.30%

AUD       NAB Business Conditions Feb A 21 | P 18

AUD       NAB Business Confidence Feb A 9 | P 12

JPY         Tertiary Industry Index M/M Jan A -0.60% | C -0.30% | P -0.20% | R 0.00%

12:30     USD       CPI M/M Feb C 0.20% | P 0.50%

12:30     USD       CPI Y/Y Feb C 2.20% | P 2.10%

12:30     USD       CPI Core M/M Feb C 0.20% | P 0.30%

12:30     USD       CPI Core Y/Y Feb C 1.80% | P 1.80%

 

Harry Hindsight

  • EUR: A very limited day with not much in the way of data for the day, the move through from the opening saw the market steady around the opening 1.2310 levels with the move into midsession seeing the market testing to the 1.2320 levels, the market drifted from the highs around the 1.2325 level into the grey hours before early Europeans took the market through towards the 1.2340 levels and the failure there saw London opening and selling the market back to the opening levels triggering weak stops on a move through the lows and testing the 1.2290 areas before holding quietly into the NYK session, NYK saw steady buying through the session on limited volumes pushing back to the 1.2320 areas before some quick end of London buying took the market to the highs again pushing just beyond the previous highs to hold around the 1.2335 levels through to the close.
  • GBP: A quiet range through the Asian session with the market moving off the 1.3850 levels and pushing quietly through to the 1.3865 areas before holding steady through to the grey hours, early London saw the market rising through to test the 1.3880 areas before drifting back to the opening level and triggering some small stops back to the 1.3840 level to move into the early part of NYK trading quickly higher through to the 1.3900 levels, the market struggled through the NYK session with the figure level until pushing through just after the London close to test towards the 1.3920 level holding quietly just above the 1.3900 areas into the close.
  • JPY: USDJPY opened around the 106.90-95 levels and held through into the Tokyo session before dropping quickly back to the 106.65 areas with the release of news that a land deal had been altered by the MoF without authorisation the scandal took on a life of its own and although the market held for a brief period broke again to the 106.30’s as MoF’s Aso apologised but refused to resign over the issue, the market then recovered a little into the run to the grey hours and stalled, the move into the London session and through the NYK period limping along around the 106.50 areas before drifting down into the 106.30 levels as London closed, and unable to regain the 106.50 level.
  • AUD: Opening around the 0.7850 levels the market moved steadily higher through the Asian session pushing in early Tokyo to the 0.7865 areas before pausing for a period, the move through to the grey hours saw the market pushing through to the 0.7870 levels, the move into the early morning in London saw the market testing the 0.7880 levels before dropping back quickly to the 0.7855 areas and slowly moving through into the NYK session slowly rising back through the 0.7870 levels, the move through to the close saw the market again testing to the highs before dropping quickly back into the close.

 

Yesterday’s premiership results

JPY         BSI Large Manufacturing Q/Q Q1 A 2.9 | C 10.3 | P 9.7

JPY         Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Feb (P) A 39.50% | P 48.80%

USD       Federal Budget Balance Feb A -215.2B | C -222.3B | P 49.2B

 

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