Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 106.326 | EURUSD 1.23678 | AUDUSD 0.78774 | NZDUSD 0.73299 | USDCAD 1.29546 | USDCHF 0.94491 | GBPUSD 1.39625 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.23839 | 1.23651
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 106.363 | 105.786
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.39858 | 1.39613
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.94536 | 0.94339
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78856 | 0.78635
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29648 | 1.29471
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73347 | 0.73056
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.16935 | 1.16805
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88632 | 0.88526
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 131.540 | 130.972
For today
- EUR: A quiet rise through to the 1.2380 levels from the opening and holding for the most part through to the grey hours around that level, Topside offers through the 1.2400 levels and through to the 1.2450 levels with possible weak stops through the 1.2420 areas before hitting possible strong resistance with that resistance then increasing on a move towards the 1.2500 levels, downside bids light through to the 1.2300 areas with some stronger support in that area, a push through the 1.2280 levels will likely see some congestion absorbing the weak stops on a push to the 1.2250 levels and some stronger bidding appearing, the market continues to see congestion through to the 1.2220-00 areas with stops likely to appear on a move through the 1.2180 levels.
- GBP: Cable slowly rose through the session pushing from the opening levels to test into the Tokyo session holding around the 1.3970 levels however, after a couple of hours in the area the market again started to slowly rise to test to the 1.3985 levels and a quiet range through to the grey hours, Topside offers while thinned a little still remains into the 1.4000 levels with a push through the level still seeing some congestive offers through the level with some stops likely, with stronger stops likely on a test through the sentimental 1.4150 areas. Downside bids light back through the 1.3900 levels with weak stops likely lurking just beyond the level and a quick run to the 1.3850-35 areas with some congestion from there to the 1.3800 level.
- JPY: USDJPY held quietly through to the Tokyo session and dropped steadily lower through the first couple of hours to push to the 105.85 areas, the market initially bounced weakly off the level to push through the 106.00 levels again however, the market again slipped lower and tested through to the 105.80 level again meeting support but looking limited on the second push higher into the grey hours, land sale scandal still impacting the market with the yen finding strength from a government in quandary over the debacle, however, downside bids increasing through to the 105.20 levels with congestion all the way through to those stronger bids, only a strong push through the 104.80 areas opens the downside with only sentimental values through to the 103.50 areas of significance. Topside offers light through to the 107.00 areas where the offers thicken on a push through to the 107.20 areas, and although a possibility of weak stops through the level the market is still congestive through to the 107.40 levels before opening a little on any push towards possibly very strong offers into the 108.00 areas.
- AUD: The Oz saw some pressure flowing through the crosses and while the market ranged around the 0.7870-85 levels the downside eventually allowed the market to open testing into the 0.7865 areas into the grey hours, topside offers through the 0.7900 levels are more congestive than anything else however, the market has been dominated by the carry trade more than straight Oz for the past few day with that congestion of offers above 79 cent the only curb on some of the stronger moves, a push through the 0.7940 level is likely to clear the stronger congestion and open the market for a slow test to the 0.7980-0.8000 level and stronger offers. Downside bids through the 0.7820-0.7800 levels with weak stops likely close behind however, the downside is very little different to the topside and the congestive bids run from the 0.7760 onwards and stronger resting bids likely into the 0.7720 levels with key support into 77 cent.
Overnight News
USD:
Trump advisor Kudlow says strong USD important for growth CNBC
Kudlow: No reason to believe Trump doesn’t want strong USD
Kudlow: Economic growth most important thing for country
Kudlow: China hasn’t played by rules for a long time
Kudlow: Trump’s position on tariffs not what people think
Trump org. was involved in stormy Daniels Cove CNN
US Senate votes to loosen key Dodd-Frank banking regulations
US proposes WTO reforms likely targeting China
NZD:
NZ economy grew less than forecast in fourth quarter
GBP:
House prices fall, number of 95% mortgages hits post crisis high
UK’s devolved nations see potential deal over post Brexit
UK expels 23 Russian diplomats, cuts high level contacts and freeze Russian state assets
JPY:
Abe’s bad month gets worse as allies hit him over Japan scandal
EUR:
EU said to consider 3% tax on the revenues of technology companies US Press
French FinMin presses Germany on Eurozone reforms
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q4 A 0.60% | C 0.80% | P 0.60%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Y/Y Q4 A 2.90% | C 3.10% | P 2.70%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Mar A 3.70% | P 3.60%
08:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices M/M Feb C 0.20% | P 0.30%
08:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Feb C 0.90% | P 1.80%
08:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate C -0.75% | P -0.75%
08:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB 3-Month Libor Lower Target Range C -1.25% | P -1.25%
08:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB 3-Month Libor Upper Target Range C -0.25% | P -0.25%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Empire State Manufacturing Mar C 15 | P 13.1
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index M/M Feb C 0.30% | P 1.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 10) C 228K | P 231K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Mar C 23 | P 25.8
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAHB Housing Market Index Mar C 72 | P 72
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P -57B
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Rising into the Tokyo session the market testing through the 1.2410 levels but was unable to break any further through the session and started to drift as it approached the grey hours, the market slipped through to the London session testing to the opening levels and dropping quickly on the open to the 1.2365 areas holding through the Eurozone numbers and rising on weaker numbers through into the NYK session, a spike to the 1.2395 levels was the last attempt higher and the market dropped back quickly as US weaker numbers seemed to offset the poor Eurozone numbers and all data was ignored through the session with the market dipping to the 1.2350 levels in light trading holding through to the London close some light buying saw the market move through to the 1.2380 levels for a quiet range through to the close.
- GBP: A Choppy day for the Cable with the market moving off the opening around the 1.3965 areas and trading through the early part of Tokyo testing slowly higher through to the 1.2395 areas but unable to make that final step higher, the market drifted for a period but quickly dropped back on the move into the grey hours, with warnings from Russia about making statements to a nuclear power without proof, this in relation to the attempted murder of an old Russian spy with a nerve agent, the market continued to decline into the 1.3940 levels before finding some support, the market through to the NYK session saw the market regaining the highs in steady trading before dropping quickly back again, the move through the early part of the NYK session saw little change for the most part and dropped quickly on the back of limited volume to quickly test the 1.3930 level before rallying into the London close pushing through to the 1.3975 areas before drifting to the close.
- JPY: Opening around the 106.60 areas the market slipped back in early trading to test to the 106.40 areas, the move into the Tokyo session and a push from the fix to the 106.75 areas before drifting through to hold around the 106.50 level through, the move through into the London session saw very little movement with aa slow rise towards the highs but continuing for the most part holding in the same 106.50 areas and only dropped back a little into mid-session in NYK testing to its lows around the 106.10 areas rising only marginally to the 106.35 levels to the close.
- AUD: Not what you would call an exciting day but a steady rise through to the NYK session moving from the 0.7855 levels to push quietly through the 0.7910 levels into the NYK opening, the market having tested through the 79 cent saw a drop lower testing back to the 0.7870 levels and then trading quietly through to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (NZD) Q4 A -2.77B | C -2.45B | P -4.68B | R -4.83B
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Mar A 0.20% | P -2.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BOJ Minutes of Policy Meeting
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Orders M/M Jan A 8.20% | C 5.20% | P -11.90% | R -9.30%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Y/Y Feb A 9.70% | C 10.00% | P 9.40%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Feb A 7.20% | C 6.30% | P 6.20%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Fixed Assets Ex Rural Y/Y Feb A 7.90% | C 7.00% | P 7.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Feb (F) A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Feb (F) A 1.40% | C 1.40% | P 1.40%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Jan A -1.00% | C -0.40% | P 0.40%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Employment Q/Q Q4 A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Advance M/M Feb A -0.10% | C 0.30% | P -0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Feb A 0.20% | C 0.40% | P 0.00% | R 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M Feb A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Feb A 2.80% | C 2.80% | P 2.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core M/M Feb A 0.40% | C 0.20% | P 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y Feb A 2.5% | C 2.60% | P 2.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories Jan A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P 0.40% | R 0.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A 5.02M | C 2.5M | P 2.4M
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