Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 106.535 | EURUSD 1.2244 | AUDUSD 0.76827 | NZDUSD 0.71918 | USDCAD 1.3708 | USDCHF 0.95654 | GBPUSD 1.39986 |

LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.22668 | 1.22419

USDJPY                 106.543 | 106.411

GBPUSD               1.40178 | 1.39985

USDCHF               0.95645 | 0.95471

AUDUSD              0.77029 | 0.76838

USDCAD               1.30771 | 1.30106

NZDUSD               0.71880 | 0.71715

EURCHF                1.17139 | 1.1706

EURGBP               0.87530 | 0.87453

EURJPY                 130.598 | 130.413

For today

• EUR: A slow rise through from the opening to test above the 1.2260 levels in quiet trading and limited volumes, Downside bids light through to the 1.2220 levels then likely to increase in size as the market moves through to the 1.2200 levels, weak stops on a dip through the 1.2180 level with sentimental bids likely to move in around the 1.2160-40 areas and then stronger bids into the 1.2120 level and weakness just behind, topside offers light through the 1.2300 level and increasing on a move towards the 1.2350 level, and likely to then increase in size on any attempt to regain the 1.2380-1.2400 levels.
• GBP: Opening around the 1.4000 level the Cable saw a slow rise through to the 1.4015 areas to range quietly into the latter part of the session before drifting back to the opening levels, Topside offers weak through to the 1.4080 levels with some congestion through the 1.4100 levels and into the 1.4115 areas before weak stops appear and the market has minor congestion through to the double top from January/February with the sentimental levels likely to contain some congestion, downside bids light through the 1.4000 level with better bids likely to start appearing on any moves through to the 1.3950-00 areas with weak stops on a break through that 1.3900 level likely to appear.
• JPY: A very quiet day for the USDJPY dipping a little from the opening and holding just below the 106.50 areas in the tightest range I’ve seen for a long time, the move through to the grey hours saw the market drifting back to the 106.40 levels in a quiet lunch period, Topside offers weak through to the 107.00 levels with minor congestion on a move through the level and into the 107.50 level, a push through the level could see weak stops appearing and the market quickly pushing through to the 107.80 areas before stronger offers slow the market and limit the speed of the move 108.00 is likely to be weaker than normal with the 108.50 level looking to be a stronger resistance level. Downside bids light back through the 106.00 level with stronger offers then moving in on any attempt to push through the 105.50 levels and the congestive bids thereafter, a break through the 104.80 levels will see stronger stops appearing and the market open to a deep move with the 103.50 levels possible the only stronger point.
• AUD: Even the Oz had a better range than USDJPY with the market opening around the 0.7680 areas and moving slowly through to test above the 0.7700 level and then ranging through quietly in the 0.7690-0.7700 area and holding into the grey hours around the 77 cent level. Downside bids congestive but weak through to the 0.7640-60 areas with the market already trading the lows of the year, a dip beyond that supportive areas will likely see further congestive bids stretching through to the 75 cent handle before any true weakness appears. Topside offers through the 78 cent levels likely to be building with weak stops on a move through the 0.7820 levels and congestive offers into the 0.7850 areas.

Overnight News

OIL:

API is said to report US crude stocks fell 2.7M bbl last week

CNY:

China’s love affair with the best iron ore may be about to end

NZD:

NZ immigration dropped to 3yr low in February

CAD:

US govt. is said to drop demand on Canada, Mexico autos Globe

JPY:

Japan needs exit strategy from easy money Kishida says

USD:

White House plans to raise barriers for Chinese firms looking to acquire advanced American tech

Trumps tariffs may release all kinds of economic problems globally – SCMP

MXN:

Mexico NAFTA chief is said to plan Washington visit Wednesday

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

AUD       Westpac Leading Index M/M Feb A 0.30% | P -0.24% | R -0.30%

09:30     GBP       Jobless Claims Change Feb C -3.1K | P -7.2K

09:30     GBP       Claimant Count Rate Feb P 2.30%

09:30     GBP       Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Jan C 2.60% | P 2.50%

09:30     GBP       ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Jan C 4.40% | P 4.40%

09:30     GBP       Public Sector Net Borrowing Feb C -0.4B | P -101B

14:00     USD       Existing Home Sales Feb C 5.41M | P 5.38M

14:30     USD       Crude Oil Inventories P 5.0M

18:00     USD       FOMC Rate Decision C 1.75% | P 1.50%

18:30     USD       FOMC Press Conference

20:00     NZD       RBNZ Rate Decision C 1.75% | P 1.75%

 

Harry Hindsight

• EUR: A quiet session through Asia with the market making limited attempts to the 1.2350 level before drifting off to the 1.2335 levels into the grey hours, the move into the London session saw the market again flirting with the 1.2350 levels pushing as far as 1.2355 before slipping back into the opening levels, the inflationary news in the UK saw EURGBP selling kicking in and the market quickly dropped back to the 1.2310 levels, the market held briefly around the level before starting along steady slide lower, the market held again through into the NYK session around the 1.2270 levels before selling reappeared into the London close and the market slowly made its well through to the 1.2240 lows before holding quietly into the close.
• GBP: Cable opened around the 1.4020 levels and managed a limited rally through towards the 1.4050 level into early Tokyo before spending the rest of the session slipping through to the 1.4020 lows into the grey hours, London opening saw the market rallying and the market pushed steadily through to the 1.4065 levels before the release of the inflationary news, a better set of numbers provides relief for BoE governor and the threat of him explaining to the government why inflation is above 3% is put off for another month and less likely that a further rate rise is necessary, Cable gapped lower and dropped quickly to the early lows before pushing slowly through into the NYK session to test the 1.3985 levels before holding quietly for a short period, minor rally then offset by the London close saw the market remaining around the 1.4000 levels through to the close.
• JPY: USDJPY made early lows on the move into the Tokyo session testing to the 105.95 levels before rallying from the open through to the 106.30 levels in a steady rise the market did push through to the 106.35 level however, it was a long drawn out affair with the market moving into the grey hours holding the 106.30 level, early London took the market quickly through to the 106.60 areas to make the highs before dropping slowly back and triggering some weak stops as the Tokyo session came to a close to test back towards the opening level, the market then bounced off the level and started a slower rise through to the highs again and then held through into NYK around the 106.40 area and rose through to the close to hold just above the 106.50 areas.
• AUD: A very narrow range overall with early lows and highs into the Tokyo opening testing the 77 cent level and then pushing through to the 0.7715 area, the market then drifted around the 0.7710 deep into the session and was unable to push the 77 cent level again until testing into the grey hours, GBPAUD selling on the inflation data saw the Oz make its highs testing the 0.7720 levels before starting a steady decline through into the NYK session with the market moving into the London close testing the 0.7680 level and basing on the level through to the close.

Yesterday’s premiership results

AUD       House Price Index Q/Q Q4 A 1.00% | C 0.00% | P -0.20%

AUD       RBA March Meeting Minutes

CHF        SECO Economic Forecasts March

EUR        German PPI M/M Feb A -0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.50%

EUR        German PPI Y/Y Feb A 1.80% | C 2.00% | P 2.10%

CHF        Trade Balance (CHF) Feb A 3.14B | C 1.87B | P 1.32B

GBP       CPI M/M Feb A 0.40% | C 0.50% | P -0.50%

GBP       CPI Y/Y Feb A 2.70% | C 2.80% | P 3.00%

GBP       Core CPI Y/Y Feb A 2.40% | C 2.50% | P 2.70%

GBP       RPI M/M Feb A 0.80% | C 0.80% | P -0.80%

GBP       PPI Input M/M Feb A -1.10% | C -0.90% | P 0.70% | R 0.40%

GBP       PPI Input Y/Y Feb A 3.40% | C 3.80% | P 4.70%

GBP       PPI Output M/M Feb A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%

GBP       PPI Output Y/Y Feb A 2.60% | C 2.70% | P 2.80%

GBP       PPI Output Core M/M Feb A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%

GBP       PPI Output Core Y/Y Feb A 2.40% | C 2.40% | P 2.20%

GBP       House Price Index Y/Y Jan A 4.90% | C 5.00% | P 5.20% | R 5.00%

EUR        German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Mar A 5.1 | C 13 | P 17.8

EUR        German ZEW Current Situation Mar A 90.7 | C 90 | P 92.3

EUR        Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Mar A 13.4 | C 28.1 | P 29.3

CAD       Wholesale Trade Sales M/M Jan A 0.10% | C 0.40% | P -0.50%

EUR        Eurozone Consumer Confidence Mar (A) A 0 | C 0 | P 0.1

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