Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 106.287 | EURUSD 1.23229 | AUDUSD 0.76801 | NZDUSD 0.72389 | USDCAD 1.28982 | USDCHF 0.9542 | GBPUSD 1.40201 |

 

LMAX Ranges 6am GMT

Highs    Lows

EURUSD               1.23285 | 1.23108

USDJPY                 106.407 | 106.189

GBPUSD               1.40569 | 1.40253

AUDUSD              0.76953 | 0.76723

USDCHF               0.95502 | 0.95384

USDCAD               1.28962 | 1.28793

NZDUSD               0.72372 | 0.72248

EURGBP               0.87824 | 0.87697

EURCHF                1.17613 | 1.17537

EURJPY                 131.130 | 130.809

For today

• EUR: A quiet range with the market opening around the 106.28 levels saw the market dip into the Tokyo session with volumes limited through the day and testing to its lows just above the 1.2310 level and rising through to the opening highs again before slowly drifting through into the grey hour holding just below the opening. congestion through to the 1.2240 levels before any decent stops appear however, through the level the market is likely to find stronger sentimental bids into the 1.2200 areas. Topside offers from the 1.2360 level is likely to grow a little into the 1.2400 areas, with stronger congestion above the level and limiting any moves for the day, a push through the 1.2460 level will only see stronger offers moving into the 1.2500 areas.
• GBP: A wide opening saw the market test the 1.4020 areas and generally holding around the 1.4030 through the early Tokyo session, the market eventually pushed towards the 1.4040 levels and saw some limited buying to push through to just below the 1.4060 areas before slipping slowly lower again to hold the 1.4040 levels into the grey hours, Topside offers light through to the 1.4100 level with weak stops through the 1.4115 areas before weak stops appear however, from there the market is likely to see sufficient congestion to contain the market for a bank holiday Friday, downside bids into the 1.4000 likely to limit the market to some degree with stronger bids likely to appear on any attempt at the 1.3950 levels.
• JPY: Limited but choppy session for the USDJPY with the market opening slightly lower and then testing through to the 106.40 levels on a move into the Tokyo session, the market then drifted back and tested through to the 106.20 levels to make the lows before moving back and holding above the 106.30 areas through to the grey hour, Light bids to the downside and through the 106.00 areas with stronger congestion into the 105.50 level before opening the market to another run into the 105.00 levels and strong congestion from then on. Topside offers light through to the 107.00 levels with some stronger offers into that level and no stops expected until through the 107.30 areas and the highs of the month.
• AUD: Higher opening for the AUD with the market dropping from the 0.7695 levels and testing through to the 0.7682 in slow trading, the market saw a recovery in light trading however, the market was not finished with the downside and the market ran to the 0.7675 levels through to the grey hours. Downside bids into the lows of the year around the 0.7640 level with possible weak stops through the level and then a return to congestive bids into and through the 76 cent level. Topside offers into the 77 cent level light and possibly weak enough to be pushed through on a normal day, any push through will see congestion continuing and increasing beyond the 0.7740 levels.

Overnight News

CNY:

March Factory gauge rebounds as export demand recovers

BHD:

Bahrain say its discover the biggest oil find since 1932 and dwarfs reserves

JPY:

Japan’s PM Abe’s cabinet approval rating falls to 42% – Yomiuri

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

JPY         Tankan Large Manufacturing Index Q1 A 24 | C 25 | P 25 | R 26

JPY         Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook Q1 A 20 | C 22 | P 19 | R 21

JPY         Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index Q1 A 23 | C 24 | P 23 | R 25

JPY         Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q1 A 20 | C 21 | P 20

JPY         Tankan Small Manufacturing Index Q1 A 15 | C 14 | P 15

JPY         Tankan Small Manufacturing Outlook Q1 A 12 | C 10 | P 11

JPY         Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Index Q1 A 10 | C 8 | P 9

JPY         Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q1 A 5 | C 5 | P 5

JPY         Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q1 A 2.30% | C 1.00% | P 7.40% | R 6.40%

JPY         PMI Manufacturing Mar (F) A 53.1 | C 53.2 | P 53.2

AUD       TD Securities Inflation M/M Mar A 0.10% | P -0.10%

CNY        Caixin PMI Manufacturing Mar A 51 | C 51.7 | P 51.6

13:30     CAD       Manufacturing PMI Mar P 55.6

13:45     USD       Manufacturing PMI Mar (F) C 55.7 | P 55.7

14:00     USD       Construction Spending M/M Feb C 0.40% | P 0.00%

14:00     USD       ISM Manufacturing Mar C 60 | P 60.8

14:00     USD       ISM Prices Paid Mar C 72.5 | P 74.2

14:00     USD       ISM Employment Mar P 59.7

Weekend News

USD:

Trump vows no more DACA deal as pushes for Mexico border wall

Trump attacks Amazon again over postal rates

GBP/RUB:

UK minister says routine for plane to be searched after Russia demands explanation

JPY:

Japan Q1 manufacturer’s mood worsens slightly BoJ tankan

CNY:

China’s response to US metals tariffs goes into effect on Monday

Caixin China PMI emphasizes the less positive regional outlook

Harry Hindsight

• EUR: With a lot of countries out for the day a limited market through to the end of the day, early trading saw a missing Sydney and Wellington and the market slipping quietly into the Tokyo session, a quick dip to the 1.2290 areas in early Tokyo saw the low of the day and the market then slowly rising back through the opening just above the 1.2300 levels and pushing into the 1.2310 until closer to the grey hour and the Bank holiday London session, A dip from the open in London saw the market rising just as quickly to test to the 1.2320 areas before steadily rising after an hour or so to push through to the 1.2330 level and through into the bank holiday US session, drifting through to the close around the 1.2320 levels.
• GBP: Opening around the 1.4025 levels the market made a push through the 1.4030 level and struggled in early trading towards the 1.4040 level before slowly slipping lower to make the lows of the day around the 1.4015 areas, the market eventually rose and held through to the grey hour holding the 1.4030 areas and then started a slow rise from the London opening to push into mid-morning testing the 1.4060 levels and making the high for the day, the market slowly slipped back and held for a few hours on the 1.4050 areas through to the end of the limited London session dipping back to the opening levels for the run to the close.
• JPY: A slow rise from the opening to test through to the 106.55 areas before sliding back to the opening levels into the Tokyo session, the market slipped lower in early trading pushing through to the 106.30 levels and eventually running a second time to test to the 106.15 levels and basing along that line through the balance of the session and into the London period, the market eventually pushed off the lows in early London gradually rising to the close in a very quiet bank holiday session. AUD: Opening around the lows 0.7675 areas and then pushing into the Tokyo session to test the 0.7685 areas and then ranged through to the London session in those areas, the market then pushed through to the 77 cent levels, after a weak push through the 0.7705 areas the market slipped through the session to finish the day around the opening levels.

Yesterday’s premiership results

JPY         Jobless Rate Feb A 2.50% | C 2.60% | P 2.40%

JPY         Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Mar A 0.80% | C 0.90% | P 0.90%

JPY         Industrial Production M/M Feb (P) A 4.10% | C 5.00% | P -6.80%

JPY         Housing Starts Y/Y Feb A -2.60% | C -4.20% | P -13.20%

Stay lucky

Andy

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