Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.385 | EURUSD 1.22399 | AUDUSD 0.76849 | NZDUSD 0.72702 | USDCAD 1.27517 | USDCHF 0.96346 | GBPUSD 1.40042 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 6am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.22600 | 1.22341
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 107.440 | 106.991
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.40218 | 1.39878
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96360 | 0.96142
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.76934 | 0.76577
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.27831 | 1.27495
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72778 | 0.72555
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.17939 | 1.17771
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87500 | 0.87398
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 131.491 | 131.087
For today
- EUR: The Euro initially moved higher through the early part of Tokyo pushing to the 1.2260 levels before stalling and slipping back, most of the movement was USD related as Trumps order to consider further tariffs but fading into the second half of Tokyo to push back to the opening levels. Downside bids into the 1.2220-1.2180 levels with possible weak stops before finding 1.2160 and key level to a move towards the 1.2120 with minor support level, any push through the level will open the downside to further losses and the market open through to sentimental areas for a good way, Topside offers light through to the 1.2300 level with stronger offers not likely until the market pushes towards the 1.2340 areas with congestion likely to continue into 1.2360 before limited space for the move to the 1.2380-1.2400 levels.
- GBP: No different for the Cable with market opening just above the 1.4000 levels and making a push through to the 1.4020 areas before starting a slow decline in a slow market through the 1.4000 level to move towards the grey hour holding the 1.3990 areas. Downside bids into the 1.3950 levels likely to be stubborn with the market likely to see congestion on a test through the level and into the 1.3900 and possible stronger bids appearing again, any break through the level will likely to see weak stops appearing however, 1.3850 and 1.3800 are likely to be comparable in strength. Topside offers light through the 1.4000 levels with possible weak stops above the 1.4015 level and the market open to move back to the congestive 1.4050 areas and the 1.4100 stronger offers with stops likely above 1.4115.
- JPY: USDJPY saw an early reaction to the Trump news and the market dropping from the 107.40 levels to test to the 107.10 in the quick move, the market did test the 107.00 levels a couple of times before slowly rising back over an extended rally to the opening levels, Stronger buying of US equities could be partially behind some of the movement this week and the market still remains above the 107.00 level having pushed through yesterday, weak stops likely on a dip through the 106.80 levels and then a waiting game to see whether yield plays reappear, with possible weakness appearing on a push back through the 106.50 areas and into the 106.00-105.70 areas and congestive bids. Topside offers into the 107.50 level while thinner than yesterday remain with likely weak stops on a move through the level having spent time pushing at the level, 107.80-108.00 remain the sticking point with stronger offers likely into the level and likely leading into congestion through the level and over the next big figure to 109.
- AUD: Limited movement overall, with the market dropping from the 0.7685 level through to the 0.7660 areas before recovering slowly through to the 0.7690 areas and slipping through the opening levels through to the grey hour. Downside bids through to the 0.7640 level with a possible break here quickly testing the 76 cent level however, congestion remains through the downside with a deep range from 2016-17 opening. Topside offers through to the 0.7730 level and then only a slight gap before the sentimental level comes into play only a break above the 0.7780-0.7800 will open the market and one suspects that the offers are going to be strong.
Overnight News
USD:
FED Atlanta Pres. Raphael Bostic speaks to reporters
Bostic: Policy has a little ways to go before reaching neutral
Bostic: Says some asset markets getting aggressively priced
Bostic: Fed should take a pause on hikes once neutral reached
Trump order USTR to consider $100B in additional China tariffs
Trump renews Amazon attack, vows, very serious look at business
Trump still prepared to have discussions with China on trade
Trump China has repeatedly engaged in practices to unfairly obtain America’s intellectual property
USTR Lighthizer says any additional tariffs would not go into effect until public comment process is completed
Trump says he has instructed agriculture sec to use his authority to implement a plan to protect US farmers and Agri interests
BoJ overtakes foreign investors as top buyer of stocks
CHF:
SNB regards currency market state as fragile Moser
TRY:
Simsek report adds to policy fears: Lira weakens
Global:
World economy slow abruptly as credit squeeze builds AEP
CNY:
China commerce ministry: does not want trade war but not afraid of trade war
CCM: will take new comprehensive measure to safeguard interests
CCM: US-China trade conflict is caused by the US
CCM: Beijing will fight US at any cost after Trump proposes fresh tariffs
China’s debt is now seen as biggest risk to the global economy
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Overall Household Spending Y/Y Feb A 0.10% | C 0.30% | P 2.00%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Labour Cash Earnings Y/Y Feb A 1.30% | C 0.50% | P 0.70% | R 1.20%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index Feb (P) A 105.8 | C 105.5 | P 105.6
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Industrial Production M/M Feb C 0.20% | P -0.10%
07:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Mar C 734.5B | P 732.8B
08:10Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail PMI Mar P 52.3
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Non-farm Payrolls Mar C 189K | P 313K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Mar C 4.00% | P 4.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Hourly Earnings M/M Mar C 0.30% | P 0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Change in Employment Mar C 20.0K | P 15.4K
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Mar C 5.80% | P 5.80%
14:00Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Ivey PMI Mar C 60.2 | P 59.6
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Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Early highs to the 1.2290 levels before slipping and holding through to the grey hours, London were steady sellers on the back of weaker PMI numbers in Germany in particular however, the market held the 1.2250 levels for the first move lower and recovered a little for the move to the NYK session regaining to the opening levels, NYK saw quick selling from the opening with USD rallying but definitely not on the numbers as Job cuts increased and initial jobless numbers followed suit with the Euro dropping back to the 1.2240 level holding and falling for the second time into the closing in London to make the lows around the 1.2220 levels before finding sufficient support, the market eventually pushed back to the 1.2240 areas before holding steady through to the close.
- GBP: As with the Euro the market made early highs to push towards the 1.4100 level but failed and slowly drifted through to the 1.4040 levels into early London, the move through to the NYK session saw a small recovery and the market dropping back from the 1.4070 levels on NYK opening to test back to the 1.3960 level with some light stops triggered along the way, bouncing off the lows and then holding through to the close around the 1.4000 level.
- JPY: Opening around the 106.75 areas and slowly moving into the Tokyo session unable initially to make any headway, chatter about a big buyer supporting the USDJPY saw the market push up towards the 107.00 level and breaking the level towards the end of the session and into the run to the grey hours, London were quick buyers from the opening taking the market through to the 107.10 levels and holding in a long drawn out range around that level, NYK saw buying deep into the session and the market pushing quickly through to the 107.50 areas before running into resistance and holding all the way through to the close.
- AUD: Early highs saw the Oz testing to the 0.7725 areas before the market slowly drifted through the Asian session holding into the London period around the 0.7690 levels and drifting through the balance of the day in a not overly inspiring day finishing around the 0.7675 day.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) Feb A 0.83B | C 0.72B | P 1.06B | R 0.95B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Factory Orders M/M Feb A 0.30% | C 1.50% | P -3.90% | R -3.50%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Mar A 0.40% | C 0.30% | P 0.40%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Mar A 0.80% | C 0.70% | P 0.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Services PMI Mar A 52.6 | C 53.9 | P 55
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Mar (F) A 56.9 | C 56.8 | P 56.8
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Mar (F) A 53.9 | C 54.2 | P 54.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Mar (F) A 54.9 | C 55 | P 55
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Mar A 51.7 | C 54 | P 54.5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI M/M Feb A 0.10% | C 0.00% | P 0.40%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI Y/Y Feb A 1.60% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Feb A 0.10% | C 0.60% | P -0.10% | R -0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Mar A 39.40% | P -4.30%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Feb A -2.7B | C -2.1B | P -1.9B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 31) A 242K | C 223K | P 215K | R 218K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Feb A -57.6B | C -56.5B | P -56.6B | R -56.7B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A -29B | C -29B | P -63B
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