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Daily FX Market Commentary

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 107.326 | EURUSD 1.23262 | AUDUSD 0.77554 | NZDUSD 0.73808 | USDCAD 1.25887 | USDCHF 0.96236 | GBPUSD 1.42269 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.23334 | 1.23215

USDJPY                 107.480 | 107.208

GBPUSD               1.42453 | 1.42277

USDCHF               0.96318 | 0.96216

AUDUSD              0.77779 | 0.77528

USDCAD               1.25939 | 1.25819

NZDUSD               0.73826 | 0.73682

EURCHF                1.18712 | 1.18625

EURGBP               0.86635 | 0.86556

EURJPY                 132.518 | 132.185

 

For today

  • EUR: A very quiet session with the market holding for the most part around the 1.2330 levels with a minor dip towards the 1.2320 before correcting back to the opening levels, downside bids into the 1.2300 levels with congestion likely to continue through the downside with particular strength into the 1.2280 level with limited weakness through the level and increasing into the 1.2250 areas, a push through the 1.2240 level is likely to be tough with stronger bids likely to appear on any approach towards the 1.2220-00 levels with limited stops on a move through the level and increasing bids into the 1.2140-60 areas and key to a move lower. Topside offers through the 1.2380-1.2400 areas, weak stops likely on a push through the 1.2420 areas and light congestion will then possibly run into further offers increasing as the market moves higher into the 1.2460 level.
  • GBP: A quiet rise from the opening around the 1.4230 level to test towards yesterday’s highs but no further and drifting back to the opening levels and ranging quietly through to the grey hour, Topside offers into the 1.4250 level and while the offers may be a little weak immediately through the level will likely thicken the closer the market moves to the 1.4300 levels with congestion possibly mixed with weak stops through the level and open to the stronger 1.4330 areas and the years highs with stops possibly through the level. downside bids light back through the 1.4200 with possible weak stops appearing for a test back to the 1.4150 level and some minor congestion, with better bids likely into the 1.4100 level forming, with stronger bids only around the 1.4050 congested for the moment.
  • JPY: USDJPY slipped lower from the opening in light selling through into the Tokyo session where the Friday buyers appeared for the move to the Tokyo fix, the market pushed back to the opening levels and then slowly pushed to the 107.40 highs from yesterday with some weak stops taking the market close to testing the 107.50 before drifting back to hold around the opening levels again. Topside offers into the 107.50 is self-evident a push through the level will likely see some weak stops before the stronger offers then appear in the market on any test towards the 108.00 level, however, above that level the market is likely to be reasonably light for the USDJPY through the 108 handle with sentimental values dominating until the 108.80 areas and stronger offers likely to come into play before a very congested 109. Downside bids light through the 107.00 level with stronger bids into the 106.60 level and likely to continue through the 106.40 level, congestive bids continue and although the market is open to the 106.00 level that market is likely to be a little nervous of going short with bids into the 106.00.
  • AUD: RBA stability review was a little mixed but the market took it well and once it was out to read the market moved steadily higher to test to the 0.7780 levels before finding resistance to the move and holding quietly into the grey hour around the 0.7770 areas, Topside of course is offered through to the 0.7800 level with a possible chunk of stops through the level and limited congestion through to the stronger 0.7840 areas and continuing through to the 0.7860 level with increasing offers into 0.7880-0.7900. downside bids light through to the 77 cent levels with congestion through the level and better bids again into the 0.7660-40 level with strong stops likely on a move through to meet the ever present congestion.

 

Overnight News

MXN:

Mexico credit rating could be hurt if reforms reversed – Moody’s

Abrupt fiscal policy shift could lead to Mexico downgrade

CNY:

China should learn from Japan in the 1980’s – Songcheg, PBoC adviser

China plans Taiwan strait live fire exercises amid tensions

NZD:

New Zealand manufacturing growth slowed further in March

EUR:

Leaked EU files show Brussels cover-up and collusion on Putin’s Gazprom abuse

ECB looks down stimulus exit path as politics threaten economy

USD:

White house plans to escalate trade pressure on China – WSJ

No reward for N. Korea without irreversible denuclearization – Pompeo

Trump, having denounced Amazon’s shipping deal, order review of postal service

Trump tweets would only join TPP if the deal were substantially better than the deal offered to Obama

We already have bilateral deals with six of the eleven in TPP, and are working to make a deal with the biggest of those nations, Japan, who has hit us hard on trade for years

SGD:

Mas increases slope of currency band

Mas maintains width, centre of currency band

Mas shifts to modest, gradual appreciation of SGD

USD/EUR:

Europeans and US make progress in push to preserve Iran deal

AUD:

RBA: Risks to Australia from Chinese economy remain elevated

RBA: Global markets pricing in little chance of adverse outcomes

RBA: Conditions in commercial property remain an area to watch

RBA: Some interest only borrowers seeing repayment difficulty

RBA: Australian financial system resilience has been strengthened

RBA: Detrimental shock could lead to lasting correction in markets

RBA: Concerned as $480B in debt resets

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

CNY        Trade Balance (USD) Mar A -5.0B | C 27.8B | P 33.7B

CNY        Trade Balance (CNY) Mar A -30B | C 160B | P 225B

AUD       RBA Financial Stability Review

06:00     EUR        German CPI M/M Mar (F) C 0.40% | P 0.40%

06:00     EUR        German CPI Y/Y Mar (F) C 1.60% | P 1.60%

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Feb C 20.1B | P 19.9B

14:00     USD       U. of Mich. Sentiment Apr (P) C 100.6 | P 101.4                 

 

Harry Hindsight

  • EUR: Euro made the high for the day in early trading, moving into the Tokyo session pushing from the opening around 1.2370 to challenge the 1.2380 before drifting through the balance of Asia sipping below the opening to test the 1.2355 level on the move into the London session, a weaker industrial production number sent the market quickly down to the 1.2340 level and the market then held in that area through to the NYK session before dropping again testing quickly to the 1.22315 level with weak stops triggered before drifting through to the 1.2300 level, the final two hours into the London close saw the market slowly recovering and testing back to the 1.2340 areas before drifting from the London close slowly through to the end of the day around the 1.2320 areas.
  • GBP: A quiet range through the Asian session for Cable with the market rising in early trading from the opening 1.4180 levels to test towards 1.4200 before drifting slowly through to test the 1.4175 level into the grey hour, early London rose a little in a half-hearted attempt at the 1.4200 level again but was limited, weaker numbers in Euro were sufficient to drag on the GBP with EURGBP bids, the bids lasted only for a short period with EURGBP testing towards 0.8730 before starting a steady decline through the session to fall back to the 0.8645 level, GBP rallied through to the NYK session pushing through the 1.4200 level easily and holding the 1.4215 areas, the market slipped back to trade around the 1.4200 levels for a few hours before rallying a last time, the push through the highs saw some weak stop triggered and the market pushing through quickly to push the 1.4240 level and then struggling with the final 10 pips to the 1.4250 eventually slipping back and giving up on the venture to hold for a long period through to the 1.4240 areas.
  • JPY: Opening quietly and dipping to the 106.70 areas before recovering the opening 106.80 level and pushing through to the 106.90 area and holding for a great deal of the day holding around that area struggling with the 107.00 level on every attempt until deep into London, The move towards the NYK session saw the market rise steadily through the 107.10 levels pausing before renewing the rally to test to the 107.40 area before holding and slipping as the London session left for the day and then range in the 107.20-30 levels to the close.
  • AUD: A quiet day for the Oz with the market making early highs to the 0.7770 areas before sliding back for the move into the London session, early London rose slightly but the market dipped after a couple of hours to make the lows just through the 0.7740 areas and then ranging through the balance of the day around the 0.7750 level and a slow rise to the 0.7760 close.

 

Yesterday’s premiership results

GBP       RICS House Price Balance Mar A 0% | C 2% | P 0%

JPY         Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Mar A 3.20% | C 3.20% | P 3.30%

AUD       Consumer Inflation Expectation Apr A 3.60% | P 3.70%

AUD       Home Loans M/M Feb A -0.20% | C -0.40% | P -1.10%

EUR        Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Feb A -0.80% | C 0.10% | P -1.00%

EUR        ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

CAD       New Housing Price Index M/M Feb A -0.20% | P 0.00%

USD       Import Price Index M/M Mar A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P 0.40% | R 0.30%

USD       Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 7) A 233K | C 230K | P 242K

USD       Natural Gas Storage A -19B | C -11B | P -29B

 

Good luck and back on the 23rd

Andy

 

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