Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 107.637 | EURUSD 1.22885 | AUDUSD 0.76695 | NZDUSD 0.72096 | USDCAD 1.27671 | USDCHF 0.97484 | GBPUSD 1.40005 |

 

LMAX Ranges 5am GMT

Highs    Lows

EURUSD               1.22884 | 1.2265

USDJPY                 107.889 | 107.67

GBPUSD               1.40235 | 1.39994

AUDUSD              0.76829 | 0.76585

USDCHF               0.97642 | 0.97502

USDCAD               1.27707 | 1.27521

NZDUSD               0.72170 | 0.71985

EURGBP               0.87759 | 0.87516

EURCHF                1.19826 | 1.19686

EURJPY                 132.439 | 132.208

For today

• EUR: Opening slightly lower the market made early efforts to close the gap on the charts before drifting away from the 1.2290 levels and testing through to the 1.2265 in mid-session before ranging in the 1.2270-80 levels through to the grey hours in quiet trading, Downside congestion through the 1.2250 level and likely to continue into the stronger bids around the 1.2220 level before giving way to some limited weakness, light bids into the 1.2200 level are likely to be a little stronger through to the 1.2180, again limited stops and then congestive bids through to the 1.2160 areas, topside offers light through to the 1.2300 level with light congestive offers and weak stops on a test through to the 1.2320 level before stronger congestion starts to appear on any move through the 1.2360 level.
• GBP: Opening in line with close of Friday the market held roughly above the 1.4000 levels with a couple of stabs through the level in early trading and light liquidity before rising through the Tokyo session to test towards the 1.4025 levels and holding around the 1.4020 level for a long run to the grey hour testing the 1.4015 level. Downside bids into and through the 1.4000 levels and then likely to be congestive through to the stronger 1.3950 levels with very little in the way of stops until a move through the 1.3900 levels. Topside offers light congestion through to the 1.4100 levels with some stronger offers around the level before weak stops appear and the market finds only patches of resistance through to the 1.4200 levels with stronger stops on a move through the level opening another test through the 1.4300 level.
• JPY: Opening some 10 pips higher the market attempted to close the gap in early trading before slowly pushing through towards the 107.90 level but was limited to the topside and ranged in a decreasing movement through to the grey hour centred upon the 107.80 level, offers to the topside in the current areas and likely to continue to the 108.00 areas with weak stops likely on a push above the level, the market then has room to the 108.80 level before meeting any further strong offers with the 108.80-109.00 level likely to be a sticking point with congestion likely to appear on any move through the level into old trend lines around the 109.35 and 109.60 areas likely to slow the market even further, downside bids light through to the 107.00 level with congestive bids wrapped around the level and any weak stops likely to be light through to the 106.60 level.
• AUD: Oz opened unchanged and slipped slowly from the opening 0.7675 areas to test the 0.7660 in early Tokyo, the market recovered steadily through the session pushing through the 0.7680 level late in the session to head into the grey hour making steady progress, downside bids into the 0.7650 level hae been consistently strong over the past month and a break here could see the 76 cent level quickly under pressure for the first time this year, topside offers congested around the 0.7680-0.7700 areas with weak stops on a move through the level leaving the 0.7740-60 areas as the strongest point with congestion likely through the level and into the 78 cent area with stronger bids around that level.

Overnight News

NZD:

RBNZ’s Orr says Central bank always aiming for 2% inflation

CAD:

Poloz says Canadian spike doesn’t violate 2% target

EUR/ILS

Germany’s Merkel tells Israeli TV: Imperfect Iran deal is better than no deal

USD/KRW:

Trump tempers optimism on N. Korea: Only time will tell

OpEd Contributor: Kim Jong-un strings America along

CHF:

SNB’s Jordan sees no need to adjust monetary policy

GBP:

Project fear’s Brexit predictions were wrong by £100B new report says

UK set for more uninspiring growth after weak start to 2018

Britain will leave the customs union after Brexit, Number 10 insists – UKT

USD:

Mnuchin says he’s considering trip to China amid trade spat

EUR:

ECB is said to see scope to wait for July to signal end of QE

JPY:

Support for Abe cabinet continues to decline in two Japanese polls

Abe Cabinet approval rating falls to 29% lowest since 2012 – ANN

G7:

There was unity among G7 Foreign Ministers on opposing Russia’s malign behaviour – US official

There is openness to dialogue with Russia while holding Moscow accountable for malign activities and efforts to destabilize nations US official

G7 Foreign ministers had a good discussion on N. Korea US official

Meeting discussed range of Iran’s malign activities and how unacceptable Iran’s ballistic missile program is US official

G7 Foreign ministers discussed Iran nuclear deal, efforts to seek a supplemental agreement US official

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

JPY         PMI Manufacturing Apr (P) A 53.3 | C 53.4 | P 53.1

07:00     EUR        France Manufacturing PMI Apr (P) C 53.5 | P 53.7

07:00     EUR        France Services PMI Apr (P) C 56.5 | P 56.9

07:30     EUR        Germany Manufacturing PMI Apr (P) C 57.5 | P 58.2

07:30     EUR        Germany Services PMI Apr (P) C 53.7 | P 53.9

08:00     EUR        Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Apr (P) C 56.1 | P 56.6

08:00     EUR        Eurozone Services PMI Apr (P) C 54.6 | P 54.9

12:30     CAD       Wholesale Trade Sales M/M Feb C 0.80% | P 0.10%

12:30     USD       Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Mar C 0.27 | P 0.88

13:45     USD       US Manufacturing PMI Apr (P) C 55.2 | P 55.6

13:45     USD       US Services PMI Apr (P) C 54.1 | P 54

14:00     USD       Existing Home Sales Mar C 5.55M | P 5.54M

Yesterday’s premiership results

JPY         National CPI Core Y/Y Mar A 0.90% | C 0.90% | P 1.00%

JPY         Tertiary Industry Index M/M Feb A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P -0.60% | R -0.40%

EUR        German PPI M/M Mar A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P -0.10%

EUR        German PPI Y/Y Mar A 1.90% | C 2.00% | P 1.80%

CAD       Retail Sales M/M Feb A 0.40% | C 0.50% | P 0.30% | R 0.10%

CAD       Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Feb A 0.00% | C 0.50% | P 0.90% | R 1.00%

CAD       CPI M/M Mar A 0.30% | C 0.40% | P 0.60%

CAD       CPI Y/Y Mar A 2.30% | C 2.40% | P 2.20%

CAD       CPI Core – Common Y/Y Mar A 1.90% | C 2.00% | P 1.90%

CAD       CPI Core – Median Y/Y Mar A 2.10% | C 2.20% | P 2.10%

CAD       CPI Core – Trim Y/Y Mar A 2.00% | C 2.10% | P 2.10%

EUR        Eurozone Consumer Confidence Apr (A) A 0 | C 0 | P 0

Stay lucky

Andy

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