Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 108.812 | EURUSD 1.22327 | AUDUSD 0.76035 | NZDUSD 0.71179 | USDCAD 1.28327 | USDCHF 0.97894 | GBPUSD 1.39785 |

LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.22390 | 1.22132

USDJPY                 109.078 | 108.798

GBPUSD               1.39972 | 1.3967

USDCHF               0.98139 | 0.97882

AUDUSD              0.76063 | 0.75724

USDCAD               1.28473 | 1.28216

NZDUSD               0.71168 | 0.70925

EURCHF                1.19903 | 1.19759

EURGBP               0.87513 | 0.8740

EURJPY                 133.283 | 133.029

For today

• EUR: Opening around the 1.2235 level the market made a limited move through into the Tokyo session after a quiet start to the day with Antipodean market closed for Anzac day, having made the early highs before slipping slowly lower in two moves to test below the 1.2220 levels and into the grey hour, downside bids into the 1.2200-1.2180 level with congestion possible through to the 1.2160 areas before stronger stops appear in the market and opening the market to the 1.2100 level. Topside offers through the 1.2240-60 areas a move above the level sees stronger offers appearing on a move to the 1.2280-1.2300 areas with weak stops likely above the 1.2320 area.
• GBP: Cable opened around the 1.3980 level and made an early push towards the 1.4000 failing to get through the market drifted through the balance of the session testing back to the 1.3980 opening levels and then holding quietly until late in the session before pushing through to the 1.3970 level into the grey hour, Topside offers light through the 1.4000 level with weak stops on a push through and then congestive offers then running from the 1.4030-50 levels, congestion is likely to be light from there on and opening to the stronger 1.4100 level however, that is relative to the week or so we’ve been below the level and possibly limited with weak stops through the level. Downside bids light through to the 1.3920-1.3900 levels where the bids are possibly strong with congestion through the level and increasing as the market pushes to the 1.3850 areas.
• JPY: Limited range on a limited day, the market opened around the lows of the day and then pushed through into the Tokyo session testing initially to the 109.00 areas and struggling with the level testing just through before drifting back again, the second run deeper in the session with a weaker activity level saw the market again testing through to test slightly higher before moving into the grey hour, Downside bids light through to the 108.20 level with some stronger bids likely to appear with weak stops appearing through the 108.00 levels stronger congestive bids through the 107 handle however, those bids are likely to be light and the market will be expecting fresh buying from the yield players (term used lightly) failure to do so could see the market testing quickly into the 107.00 level. Topside offers through the 109.00 level and look to be around the 109.20 level and onwards with old trend lines appearing around the 109.35 and 109.60 area likely to slow any ascent.
• AUD: The move into the Tokyo session saw the Oz lightly sold on a bank holiday for the Oz market, with the market testing through to the 0.7575 level easily and limited action showing as the USD pushed a little higher in USDJPY, downside bids into the 0.7550 areas with some congestive bids through the level before opening up to a vulnerable 75 cent level with possibly a stronger bid level, topside offers light through 0.7650-0.7700 areas with a little stronger around the 0.7750 with light stops likely to appear just below the level.

Overnight News

Oil:

Oil slips as Trump, France’s Macron talk Iran deal

CNY:

China carmaker GAC says trade war could hurt plans to enter US market

China may unveil new asset management rules this week China daily

AUD/NZD:

Bank Holiday ANZAC day

KRW:

1. Korea hopes more for peace than unification with the North

USD:

US senators push banks for information on Russian oligarchs

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

JPY         All Industry Activity Index M/M Feb A 0.40% | C 0.50% | P -1.80% | R -1.10%

14:30     USD       Crude Oil Inventories P -1.1M

 

Harry Hindsight

• EUR: A quiet opening saw a quick dip into the Tokyo session testing through towards the 1.2180 level before bouncing off and returning to the 1.2210 levels and a slow rise through to the 1.2220 area into the London session, weaker IFO numbers saw the Euro then sold back to the lows again, the market recovered but took a couple of hours to rise back to the 1.2220 level and hold through to the NYK session, minor numbers in the US saw the Euro continue to climb slowly through the session to test into the 1.2240 levels and a slow move to the close.
• GBP: A similar pattern through the Asian session to the Euro as USD moved around a little, Cable opened around the 1.3940 level and then moved into to the Tokyo session dipping through to the 1.3920 areas before finding some support, the move through to the grey hour saw the market testing the 1.3950 levels however, early London came in buying USD’s as the weaker IFO numbers impacted the market, a better than expected PSBR number saw the Cable unmoved and taking its time to react however, it did eventually and started a slow but firm climb to the 1.3985 level deep into the NYK session, it then held just short of the level for the long run to the close.
• JPY: Opening around the 108.70 levels the market slowly edged higher through to the 108.90 areas into the London session with the market never returning to the early lows just below the opening, London was less impressive than Asia with a tighter range and the market drifting away from the highs to test through the 108.80 level and hold through to the NYK session, NYK saw early buyers taking the market through the previous highs and some weak stops on a push through to the 109.00 level however, beyond the level the market struggled to touch the 109.20 areas however, having reached the level it was a quick test back triggering weak stops on the move back through the 109.00 levels and dropping through to the opening levels then a short pause before testing through to the lows of the day, the market bounced weakly off the level and a slow grind back to the opening levels for the close.
• AUD: The Oz slipped into the Tokyo session moving slowly from the opening around the 0.7605 level and testing through to the 0.7580 levels after the release of the CPI numbers with the numbers slightly weaker, the market recovered and forced its way back to hold around the 0.7610 levels ranging around the level through to the London close with the market testing as high as the 0.7620 level but unable to challenge the downside lows, and then finishing the day unchanged for the most part.

Yesterday’s premiership results

JPY         Corporate Service Price Y/Y Mar A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.60% | R 0.70%

AUD       CPI Q/Q Q1 A 0.40% | C 0.50% | P 0.60%

AUD       CPI Y/Y Q1 A 1.90% | C 2.00% | P 1.90%

AUD       CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Q/Q Q1 A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.40%

AUD       CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Y/Y Q1 A 1.90% | C 1.80% | P 1.80%

AUD       CPI RBA Weighted Median Q/Q Q1 A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.40% | R 0.50%

AUD       CPI RBA Weighted Median Y/Y Q1 A 2.00% | C 1.90% | P 2.00%

CHF        Trade Balance (CHF) Mar A 1.77B | C 3.23B | P 3.14B | R 3.08B

EUR        German IFO Business Climate Apr A 102.1 | C 102.8 | P 103.2 | R 105.7

EUR        German IFO Expectations Apr A 98.7 | C 99.5 | P 100.1 | P 101

EUR        German IFO Current Assessment Apr A 105.7 | C 106 | P 106.5 | R 110.6

GBP       Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Mar A -0.3B | C 1.1B | P -0.3B | R -0.4B

GBP       CBI Trends Total Orders Apr A 4 | C 4 | P 4

USD       House Price Index M/M Feb A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P 0.80%

USD       S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Feb A 6.80% | C 6.30% | P 6.40%

USD       New Home Sales Mar A 694K | C 625K | P 618K | R 667K

USD       Consumer Confidence Index Apr A 128.7 | C 126 | P 127.7 | R 127

 

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