Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.429 | EURUSD 1.21608 | AUDUSD 0.75643 | NZDUSD 0.70655 | USDCAD 1.28444 | USDCHF 0.9832 | GBPUSD 1.39309 |

LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.21816 | 1.21606

USDJPY                 109.458 | 109.234

GBPUSD               1.39500 | 1.39293

USDCHF               0.98343 | 0.98212

AUDUSD              0.75799 | 0.75624

USDCAD               1.28442 | 1.28299

NZDUSD               0.70774 | 0.70583

EURCHF                1.19663 | 1.19575

EURGBP               0.87339 | 0.87287

EURJPY                 133.255 | 132.979

For today

• EUR: A slow move off the closing lows to push gradually through to the 1.2180 areas holding into the grey hour, Topside offers light through the 1.2200 levels with possibly stronger offers as the market moves towards the 1.2240-60 level with weak stops through the level, and stronger offers beyond the 1.2280 level. ECB decision today see’s rumours abounding in the market of nowhere to go for Draghi with current economic situations beginning to dip, downside bids into the 1.2160 level with possible stops through the 1.2140 levels opening the 1.2100 to a test and weakness below.
• GBP: As with the Euro and a quiet rise from the opening lows to push through to the 1.3950 levels in a day of steady buying, the move into the grey hours see’s the market holding in that area, Topside offers lightly offered above the 1.3980 level with some strength into 1.4000 and a push through will likely see weak stops appearing and the market opening only a little with congestion all the way through the 1.40 handle. Downside bids likely to be strong down through into the 1.3900 levels with congestion through that level limiting the effect of any stops.
• JPY: A range bound day with the market opening around the 109.40 level and trading around the level into the mid-session period, the market traded down to the 109.26 area on a quick dip but generally basing on the 109.30 level with the range diminishing through to the grey hour, Downside bids light through the 109.00 level with possible weak stops on a dip through the 108.80 levels and then weakness through to the 108.00 level unless the yield buyer is around, topside offers continuing through the 109.30-60 levels with some limited stops on a move through that topside and running into stronger offer around the 110.00 level and increasing beyond.
• AUD: Opening just off its lows the market tested to the 0.7562 level before starting a slow rise through to the 0.7580 level before running out of ideas, and holding around the 0.7570 level through to the grey hour, Topside offers weak through the 76 cent level and possible stops appearing on a push through the 0.7620 areas, further offers likely to appear around the 0.7650 areas and congestion continuing through to the 77 cent level. Downside bids into the 0.7550 areas with stronger stops possible on a move through the 0.7540 areas and exposing the 75 cent level to a possible test however, the congestion is likely to continue for a good way.

Overnight News

CAD:

Canada sees progress on Nafta auto rules: steel tariffs loom

GBP:

UK announces £1B drive into artificial intelligence

AUD:

Turnbull woos Australians with tax relief as 2019 election gets ever closer

JPY:

Japan’s Abe says he’s not thinking of calling a snap election

EUR/USD/IRR:

Iran rejects new deal as France vows it will never get atomic weapons

CNY/USD:

Huawei said to be probed by FBI for possible Iran violations

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

AUD       Import price index Q/Q Q1 A 2.10% | C 1.20% | P 2.00%

06:00     EUR        German GfK Consumer Confidence May C 10.8 | P 10.9

08:30     GBP       BBA Loans for House Purchase Mar C 37.1K | P 38.1K

10:00     GBP       CBI Reported Sales Apr C -2 | P -8

11:45     EUR        ECB Rate Decision C 0.00% | P 0.00%

12:30     USD       Initial Jobless Claims (APR 21) C 230K | P 232K

12:30     USD       Advance Goods Trade Balance Mar C -74.8B | P -75.9B

12:30     USD       Wholesale Inventories M/M Mar (P) C 0.60% | P 1.00%

12:30     USD       Durable Goods Orders Mar (P) C 1.40% | P 3.00%

12:30     USD       Durables Ex Transportation Mar (P) C 0.40% | P 1.00%

14:30     USD       Natural Gas Storage P -36B

22:45     NZD       Trade Balance Mar C 200M | P 217M

23:01     GBP       GfK Consumer Confidence Apr C -7 | P -7

23:30     JPY         Jobless Rate Mar C 2.50% | P 2.50%

23:30     JPY         Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Apr C 0.80% | P 0.80%

23:50     JPY         Retail Trade Y/Y Mar C 1.50% | P 1.60%

23:50     JPY         Industrial Production M/M Mar (P) C 0.50% | P 2.00%

 

Harry Hindsight

• EUR: A slow slip lower through the day with the market opening around the 1.2235 level and making early highs into the Tokyo session to trade just above the opening levels before starting a slow drift through to deep in the session, the move into the London session saw the drift increase and once in the full session the market dropped through the 1.2200 level for the first time, the market held the 1.2190 areas and saw a limited recovery to the 1.2215 areas however, with limited data for the day the market eventually slipped lower again and through the figure to push this time to the 1.2170 level and into the NYK session and ranged through to late into the session between the low and 1.2190 before slipping through to the 1.2160 into the final hour.
• GBP: Early gains were lost quickly with the initial push from the opening to the 1.4000 a move to far and the market dropping back to the opening 1.3980 level for a quiet range through to the London session, slipping quickly from the opening to test to the lows from Monday the market was unable to push too far and ranged through the day around the 1.3940 level in limited trading.
• JPY: USD strength through the day saw the USDJPY pushing into the Tokyo session unchanged and then lifting quickly to test the 109 level for the first time, after a little bit of selling back to the opening levels before starting a slower rally and into the London session the market again pushed through the level and continued to the 109.25 level before halting, the market then traded above the figure but unable to push through the highs until deep into the NYK session eventually testing to the 109.35 level to range around the area to the close.
• AUD: As the USD pushed higher through the day so the Oz fell back with early highs around the 0.7605 areas the market dropped off with liquidity limited because of the Bank Holidays in AUD and NZD, and the market slipped through to the London opening testing the 0.7560 levels and congestive bids contained the market through to the end of the day with the market testing towards the 0.7550 level the once and ranging quietly around the 0.7565 level.

Yesterday’s premiership results

JPY         All Industry Activity Index M/M Feb A 0.40% | C 0.50% | P -1.80% | R -1.10%

USD       Crude Oil Inventories A 2.2M | C -1.6M | P -1.1M

 

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