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Daily FX Market Commentary

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.301 | EURUSD 1.21034 | AUDUSD 0.75531 | NZDUSD 0.7067 | USDCAD 1.28726 | USDCHF 0.98918 | GBPUSD 1.39137 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.21165 | 1.20966

USDJPY                 109.354 | 109.148

GBPUSD               1.39350 | 1.39115

USDCHF               0.98972 | 0.9888

AUDUSD              0.75592 | 0.75386

USDCAD               1.28828 | 1.28666

NZDUSD               0.70713 | 0.70511

EURCHF                1.19818 | 1.19715

EURGBP               0.87013 | 0.86933

EURJPY                 132.395 | 132.16

 

For today

  • EUR: As with yesterday the market moved slowly higher from the 1.2105 level to test the dizzy heights of 1.2115 with only one minor dip through the 1.2100 level mid-way through the session, Years lows and downside bids into the current lows with weak stops likely through the 1.2080 areas and opening the market to limited congestion through to the 1.2000 and a likely strong sentimental level, possible option plays around the level and then limited support into the 2017 ranges, topside offers light through to the 1.2200 level with some increasing offers but only once through will the market start to see stronger congestion through to the 1.2250 areas and increasing offers from there into 1.2300.
  • GBP: Cable opened around the 1.3915 areas and did nothing for the bulk of the session before rising in midsession to test to the 1.3935 level and drifting from that point and into the grey hour, Cable remains bid into the 1.3900 level with some congestion through the level and limited stops until the market pushes through the 1.3830 supportive level with stronger stops likely through the level, topside offers light through to the 1.4000 level with some limited offers in the area before the market opens up to the 1.4050 level with a mixture of interest and stronger offers from there into the 1.4100 area.
  • JPY: A quiet range with the market again testing from the opening around the 109.30 levels towards the 109.15 areas before holding quietly through to London on those lows. No surprise for the rate decision with a dip in retail sales countering the Industrial production number. Topside offers remain into the 109.60 level with weak stops likely on a move through the level before stronger offers then appear on any test to the 110.00 levels, a break here will likely target the 110.60 levels quickly before running into stronger offers and the topside limited by the end of week volumes. Downside bids seem to be through the 109.00 level for the moment with weak stops on a move through the 108.80 areas opening the market to a deeper move, however, this again is all dependent on the buyer the market has seen over the past week.
  • AUD: Rising slightly in early trading from the opening the market drifted into midsession in Tokyo making the lows just below the 0.7540 level before returning to above the 0.7550 level for the move into London. Downside bids into the current levels with continuing congestion through to the stronger 75 cent areas, , topside offers light through the 76 cent level with possible weak stops on a break there and the market seeing congestion on a move through to the 0.7650 areas.

 

Overnight News

KRW:

Meeting between both leaders starts

CNY:

China’s March industrial profits up 3.1%

JPY:

Japan factory output up in March as jobless rate stays flat

USD:

Trump admits Cohen represented him in crazy stormy Daniels deal

US needs EU concessions to extend steel, aluminium tariff exemptions – Trump aide

EUR:

Deutsche Bank calls time on Wall Street in retreat to Europe

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

JPY         BoJ Rate Decision A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%

NZD       Trade Balance Mar A -86M | C 200M | P 217M | R 172M

GBP       GfK Consumer Confidence Apr A -9 | C -7 | P -7

JPY         Jobless Rate Mar A 2.50% | C 2.50% | P 2.50%

JPY         Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Apr A 0.60% | C 0.80% | P 0.80%

JPY         Retail Trade Y/Y Mar A 1.00% | C 1.50% | P 1.60% | R 1.70%

JPY         Industrial Production M/M Mar (P) A 1.20% | C 0.50% | P 2.00%

AUD       PPI Q/Q Q1 A 0.50% | C 0.40% | P 0.60%

AUD       PPI Y/Y Q1 A 1.70% | C 1.20% | P 1.70%

JPY         Housing Starts Y/Y Mar A | C -4.80% | P -2.60%

05:30     EUR        French GDP Q/Q Q1 (A) C 0.40% | P 0.70%

06:00     EUR        German Import Price Index M/M Mar C 0.10% | P -0.60%

07:55     EUR        German Unemployment Change Apr C -15K | P -19K

07:55     EUR        German Unemployment Claims Rate Apr C 5.30% | P 5.30%

08:30     GBP       Index of Services 3M/3M Feb C 0.60% | P 0.60%

08:30     GBP       GDP Q/Q Q1 (A) C 0.30% | P 0.40%

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Economic Confidence Apr C 112 | P 112.6

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Apr C 1.28 | P 1.34

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Industrial Confidence Apr C 5.8 | P 6.4

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Services Confidence Apr C 15.9 | P 16.3

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Consumer Confidence Apr (F) C 0.4 | P 0.4

12:30     USD       GDP Annualized Q/Q Q1 (A) C 2.00% | P 2.90%

12:30     USD       GDP Price Index Q1 (A) C 2.20% | P 2.30%

12:30     USD       Employment Cost Index Q1 C 0.70% | P 0.60%

14:00     USD       U. of Mich. Sentiment Apr (F) C 98 | P 97.8

 

Harry Hindsight

  • EUR: A quiet session through the Asian session with the market slowly rising through to the London session moving off the opening 1.2160 to push slightly above the 1.2180 level and into London, a little more movement through the London session but centring around the 1.2180 level with minor dips to the opening level, before recovering and holding to the rate decision, no change saw the market dip a little but the market hardly reacted to the noise but the US numbers saw some better results and the USD initially losing ground and then dropping quickly back to push the Euro slightly through the 1.2100 level as hedge funds were blamed for increasing Euro shorts, the market bounced off the level but the push higher was short and with the loss of the London market the Euro returned to the 1.2100 areas pushing through a little before holding to the close just above.
  • GBP: Asia saw the market pushing towards the 1.3950 levels over the course of the session and then held into the London session before dropping to the 1.3900 levels to test the level, the market failed the level and the release of loans and CBI report saw the market rallying away from the lows with weak stops on a push through the 1.3950 level and quickly tested the 1.3970 areas and then after a brief pause into the NYK session rallied again to the 1.4000 levels, stronger US numbers filtered through the market but Cable belatedly fell back having rejected that level, the drop was quicker and through towards the lows of the day before chopping around a little and drifting to the close.
  • JPY: A very limited day for the USDJPY with the market opening around the 109.35 level and the Asian market was more or less pinned in the 109.30-45 level through too deep into the London session before dipping a little through to the 109.10 levels and recovering on the US numbers to the opening levels, with the market ending just off the opening levels in an uneventful day.
  • AUD: If you thought USDJPY was quiet then the Oz was comatose, opening around the 0.7565 levels the market centred around that level through to the London session, even London selling failed to push it below the 0.7560 areas and the market slowly rose through to the NYK session testing to its highs just below the 0.7590 area before the US numbers saw the market testing back to the 0.7560 levels and finally pushing through to test the 0.7550 level but holding for the most part through to the close just off the lows.

 

Yesterday’s premiership results

AUD       Import price index Q/Q Q1 A 2.10% | C 1.20% | P 2.00%

EUR        German GfK Consumer Confidence May A 10.8 | C 10.8 | P 10.9

GBP       BBA Loans for House Purchase Mar A 37.6K | C 37.1K | P 38.1K | R 38.0K

GBP       CBI Reported Sales Apr A -2 | C -2 | P -8

EUR        ECB Rate Decision A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%

EUR        ECB Press Conference

USD       Initial Jobless Claims (APR 21) A 209K | C 230K | P 232K | R 233K

USD       Advance Goods Trade Balance Mar A -68.0B | C -74.8B | P -75.9B

USD       Wholesale Inventories M/M Mar (P) A 0.50% | C 0.60% | P 1.00%

USD       Durable Goods Orders Mar (P) A 2.60% | C 1.40% | P 3.00% | R 3.00%

USD       Durables Ex Transportation Mar (P) A 0.00% | C 0.40% | P 1.00% | R 1.00%

USD       Natural Gas Storage A -18B | C -11B | P -36B

 

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