Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.192 | EURUSD 1.19884 | AUDUSD 0.7532 | NZDUSD 0.70436 | USDCAD 1.28471 | USDCHF 0.9976 | GBPUSD 1.35756 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.19956 | 1.19802
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.231 | 108.935
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.35861 | 1.35692
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99803 | 0.99709
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75608 | 0.75276
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28537 | 1.28363
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70526 | 0.70236
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.19634 | 1.19541
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88359 | 0.88258
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 130.919 | 130.629
For today
- EUR: A very quiet session with the market trading around the opening levels for the most part, the move into the Tokyo session saw the market dip towards the 1.1980 level but slowly returned to push to the 1.1995 areas for the move into the grey hour, Light offers through the 1.2000 level and into the 1.2120 areas before some resistance appears and possibly any rally struggles through the 1.2040-60 areas with stronger offers appear into the 1.2080 areas through to the 1.2100 level, downside bids light through to the 1.1980 level with deeper interest appearing from that level through to the 1.1940 areas, with stronger bids likely to continue through to the 1.1900 levels, weak stops through the 1.1880 areas opens up a deeper move however, downside is likely to remain congested.
- GBP: Moving from the opening around the 1.3575 level the market held the 1.3570 level deep into the Tokyo session before starting a slow rise through to the 1.3585 level on early local election news with Tories initially making good gains, the market held around those highs through into the grey hour, downside bids into the 1.3550 areas and likely to continue through to the 1.3500 with possible weak patches through to that level, any move through the level is likely to see stronger bids appearing on any dips to the 1.3450 areas with stronger congestion beyond the level. Topside offers light through the 1.3600 level with some congestion into the 1.3650 levels before opening up a fresh challenge to the 1.3700 and light offers.
- JPY: USDDJPY dipped from the opening levels and regaining that level in early Tokyo testing the 109.25 level before drifting a little and testing through the 109.00 area to touch lightly through the 108.95 area and holding that level for several hours before rising a little back through the 109.00 area and into the grey hour, light bids into the 109.00 are suspected however, the market has been unable to push through the level over the past couple of weeks having pushed above the level, a dip below the 108.80 area is likely to see weak stops appearing and the market open to a deeper move if there is no support appearing on the break and the 108.00 level vulnerable. Topside offers strong above the 109.60 level with short term sellers likely to appear again for any attempt to the 110.00 level, strong stops likely above the 110.20 area with the market then open to a reasonable strong squeeze a possibility.
- AUD: RBA monetary policy saw very little difference to the previous one with highlights of no strong case for near term adjustment in cash rate, higher rates are likely to be appropriate at some point, the Oz moved off the opening 0.7530 levels and saw a slow steady rise through to the 0.7560 level to hold close to the highs into the grey hour, Downside bids into the 0.7480 level with weaker congestive bids then running into the 0.7450 areas and likely to be congested even through that level, topside offers light through to the 76 cent areas with some congestive offers into the area and through to the 0.7620 level before stops are likely to appear and the market open through to the 0.7660 level and stronger offers through there.
Overnight News
USD:
Mnuchin, Kudlow, Ross decline to comment after Beijing Dinner
Calabria: Administrations goal is to have more trade, not less
Calabria: China is a serial violator of global trade norms
Calabria: First day of talks with China pretty positive
Calabria: Tough part in talks is ensuring China keeps promises
CHF:
Jordan says it would be hard to forecast what impact sovereign money initiative would have
With the vote on 10th June
GBP:
UK May not be able to leave customs union until 2023 Tel
NIESR cuts UK 2018 growth forecast to 1.5% Tel
Tories sweep up Brexit voters in English towns as local election results start coming in
KRW:
- Korea said to agree to full denuclearization by 2020 DongA
AUD:
RBA sees no strong case for near term adjustment in cash rate
RBA higher rates are likely to be appropriate at some point
RBA lifts Dec 18 core inflation forecast by 25bps to 2% (moved forward to June18)
RBA lifts Dec 18 Jobless rate forecast by 25bps to 5.5%
RBA possible credit standards tighten again due to scrutiny
RBA leaves GDP, headline inflation forecasts unchanged
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Monetary Policy Statement
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Caixin PMI Services Apr A 52.9 | C 52.3 | P 52.3
07:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Services PMI Apr C 53 | P 52.6
07:50Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Apr (F) C 57.4 | P 57.4
07:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Apr (F) C 54.1 | P 54.1
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Apr (F) C 55 | P 55
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Mar C 0.50% | P 0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Non-farm Payrolls Apr C 194K | P 103K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Apr C 4.00% | P 4.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Hourly Earnings M/M Apr C 0.20% | P 0.30%
14:00Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Ivey PMIs Index Apr C 60.2 | P 59.8
Â
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1960 level the market tested to the 1.1950 level in early Tokyo trading before starting a steady rise higher to push to the 1.1980 levels before struggling through to the London session testing only to the 1.1990 areas, early London sold the market back to the 1.1970 areas before CPI numbers were released and while core numbers would suggest a slight weakening the PPI numbers would suggest nothing of the kind, and Euro’s quickly jumped to the 1.2010 level, the market attempted the level a couple of times with some choppy trading through to the NYK session with the market dipping back as USD numbers were released with fairly strong numbers across the board and the Euro dipping back to the 1.1950 level again before slowly rising again through the day to the 1.2000 level and ending the day just short of the level.
- GBP: Cable opened quietly and then slowly rose on weak USD selling through to the mid-session into Tokyo, the market struggled through to the London session holding just below the 1.3600 levels and struggling through slightly on the move into the grey hour, London saw a minor dip before rising quickly up to the 1.3625 areas before dropping back quickly as weaker services PMI showed through, as with the Euro the market chopped around but was limited to the already set range through to the NYK session with the movement to the downside seeing the 1.3540 print as US numbers and commentary moved through the market, before holding around the opening levels in a long run to the close.
- JPY: USDJPY opened around the 109.80 levels and made the day’s highs before Tokyo moved in testing the 109.85 areas before starting a slow drop through the day, Tokyo dropped back to the 109.60 areas and held the level through to early morning in London before dipping through to the 109.50 areas, as the market moved towards the NYK session the market again dropped quickly to push through the 109.30 level and triggering some weak stops on a move to the 109.15 level before finding some composure, the market held briefly through to the London close before again dropping off and testing through to the 109.00 areas and a weak push through the level before holding quietly above the 109.20 level to the close.
- AUD: A very limited day for the Oz with the market dipping into the Tokyo session to make the low of the day around the 0.7485 level before rising higher on the better trade balance to test to the 0.7525 areas and a long steady range through to the London session, London took the market to its highs just above the 0.7540 areas before drifting off through into the NYK session testing eventually back to the 75 cent level before moving out of the London session and starting a steady rise through to the highs again and holding the 0.7530 levels to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Mar A 1.53B | C 0.68B | P 0.83B
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Approvals M/M Mar A 2.60% | C 1.00% | P -6.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Apr A 52.8 | C 53.5 | P 51.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI M/M Mar A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI Y/Y Mar A 2.10% | C 2.10% | P 1.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Apr A 1.20% | C 1.30% | P 1.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Apr (A) A 0.70% | C 0.90% | P 1.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â European Commission Economic Forecasts
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Apr A -1.40% | P 39.40%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Mar A -4.1B | C -2.0B | P -2.7B | R -2.93B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Nonfarm Productivity Q1 (P) A 0.70% | C 1.00% | P 0.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unit Labour Costs Q1 (P) A 2.70% | C 3.00% | P 2.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (APR 28) A 211K | C 225K | P 209K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Mar A -49.0B | C -55.6B | P -57.6B | R -57.7B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Services PMI Apr (F) A 54.6 | C 54.4 | P 54.4
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite Apr A 56.8 | C 58.1 | P 58.8
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Factory Orders Mar A 1.60% | C 1.40% | P 1.20% | R 1.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 62B | C 47B | P -18B
Â
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.