Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 110.401 | EURUSD 1.18075 | AUDUSD 0.75155 | NZDUSD 0.68984 | USDCAD 1.27918 | USDCHF 1.00121 | GBPUSD 1.3490 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.18378 | 1.18069
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.398 | 110.075
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.35695 | 1.35102
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00100 | 0.99873
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.75475 | 0.75064
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.27882 | 1.27492
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.69380 | 0.68957
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.18246 | 1.18187
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87409 | 0.87165
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 130.453 | 130.261
For today
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1810 level the market edged slightly higher to the 1.1820 on the move into the Tokyo session before sliding slowly through to the opening levels again before the release of the Telegraph stories in the UK, the market quickly rose through to the 1.1835 areas before drifting through to the grey hour, downside congestion through to the 1.1720 level with stronger bids into those areas through to the 1.1700 areas, weak stops on a break through the level opens the market to a test to the 1.1660-40 areas and possibly stronger bids into the level, topside offers likely to be light through to the 1.1880 areas with stronger offers through the 1.1900 levels with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1920 level, congestive offers from there and the offers then increasing on any move through the 1.1960 level.
- GBP: The market opened around the 1.3500 levels and started a steady rise through into the Tokyo session, while the news item in the Telegraph related to events already broadly known from PM question time the market rose quickly to test to the 1.3550 level before holding for a period and eventually pushing through midway through the session and testing through to the 1.3570 level before drifting back through to the grey hour holding the 1.3555 level. Downside bids through the 1.3500 level and through to the 1.3450 area where bids are likely to be a little stronger through and into the 1.3435 areas with stops likely through that level, topside offers into the 1.3600 areas with weak stops on a move through the 1.3620 area and opening the market to the 1.3700 with very little likely in the move to that level.
- JPY: No change on the range from yesterday for the most part opening around the 110.30 levels the market rose a little in the move to the Tokyo session testing to the 110.40 levels before movement in the Cable saw the USDJPY dropping quickly back to the 110.10 areas before finding support and the pressure easing a little, the market then started a slow recovery through to the grey hour unable to regain the opening levels in what was a quiet session overall for the JPY. Topside offers through the 110.50 level with congestion likely to continue through to the 110.80 level and stronger offers then from that point and into the 111.00 areas, weak stops on a push through the 111.20 areas is likely to meet strong offers continuing through the range, downside bids light through to the 109.50 areas with possible weak stops on a move through and test back to the 109.00 areas and possible yield plays appearing again, any push beyond the level will then depend on those yield players coming in to support the market.
- AUD: Opening steadily around the 0.7520 areas the move to the employment data saw the market dip a little before rallying on the better numbers rising quickly through to the 0.7545 level before holding steadily through to the grey hour helped initially by the movement in Cable. Downside bids into the 0.7420 level likely to be strong through to the 74 cent level, a move through will see strong bids again reappearing around the sentimental levels 0.7350 and 0.7300, topside offers light through to the 76 cent level with only minor offers below the level.
Overnight News
GBP:
UK is said to tell EU it prepares to stay in customs union Telegraph
UK will tell Brussels it is prepared to stay in the customs union beyond 2021 as ministers remain deadlocked over future deal with the EU
PM Brexit war cabinet earlier this week agreed on a new backstop as a last resort to avoid hard border with Eire, having rejected proposals from EU
EUR:
Better barbarians slaves say Italy’s populists as they discuss demanding €250B debt write off
Juncker: Italy is of the highest importance for the EU
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Input Q/Q Q1 A 0.60% | C 0.30% | P 0.90%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Output Q/Q Q1 A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 1.00%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Orders M/M Mar A -3.90% | C -2.80% | P 2.10%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation May A 3.70% | P 3.60%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Apr A 22.5K | C 20.0K | P 4.9K | R -0.7K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Apr A 5.60% | C 5.50% | P 5.50%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Securities Transactions (CAD) Mar P 3.96B
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 12) C 215K | P 211K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook May C 21.1 | P 23.2
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index Apr C 0.40% | P 0.30%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 89B
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: The Asian session saw an early dip from the opening around the 1.1840 level dropping back to the 1.1820 level before finding a base and the market ranging between the two through the bulk of the Tokyo session, the move into the grey hour and into London the market saw a small steady rally through to the 1.1850 level before dropping back on further chatter on the Italian situation to trigger weak stops on a move through the lows and then grind through the 1.1800 level and pushing down to the 1.1765 area to post the low into NYK session, NYK were early buyers and the market forced its way back through to the 1.1800 level and ranged in a fairly wide 40 pip range to the London close before narrowing down and pushing to a quiet close.
- GBP: A quiet range through to the London session with the market drifting from the opening just above the 1.3500 level and holding around the level for the Asian session, the move into London saw the market rising to the 1.3520 level before the drag of the Euro pulled at the Cable and the market slipped through the early lows around the 1.3485 area, the market saw the selling continuing and for much of the session into NYK held the 1.3470 level with early NYK selling the market through to the 1.3455 level before rising quickly through to the 1.3500 level as comments of staying in the customs union appeared, the market ranged around the 1.3500 level through to the close.
- JPY: USDJPY traded in a tight range for the most part chopping around through the day in a 20 pip range with early trading seeing the market dip from the 110.35 opening and test to the 110.20 level and remained as such through the session, the range narrowed down as the market moved through to the London session with the opening holding around the 110.25 areas before dipping through to the 110.10 level and basing on that line through to the NYK session and the market unable to push through to the earlier range highs, the range didn’t really improve and the market dipped only slightly lower but held above the 110.00, the market bounced a little to the 110.30 level in early trading but dipped again to the lows and the end of the London session, London out of the way the NYK market started a slow and steady climb towards the close with the market making the highs just before the close to test the 110.40 level drifting on the close a little.
- AUD: A lighter wage price index saw the Oz dropped back from the opening levels and early 0.7475 testing slightly through the 0.7450 areas before the market saw a slow climb back to the opening levels and moving into the London session testing through to the 0.7490 area, the London session was unable to really improve on the move and the Oz ranged through to the NYK session holding around the 0.7490 areas, Oz picked up in early NYK and pushed through the 75 cent level and then held in a 0.7500-20 area before holding quietly around the highs into the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q1 (P) A -0.20% | C 0.00% | P 0.40% | R 0.10%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Deflator Y/Y Q1 (P) A -0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.10% | R 0.00%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence May A -0.60% | P -0.60%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wage Price Index Q/Q Q1 A 0.50% | C 0.60% | P 0.60% | R 0.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Mar (F) A 1.40% | C 1.20% | P 1.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Apr (F) A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Apr (F) A 1.60% | C 1.60% | P 1.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI M/M Apr A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 1.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Y/Y Apr (F) A 1.20% | C 1.20% | P 1.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Apr (F) A 0.70% | C 0.70% | P 0.70%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Sales M/M Mar A 1.40% | C 1.00% | P 1.90% | R 2.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Apr A 1.29M | C 1.33M | P 1.32M | R 1.34M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits Apr A 1.35M | C 1.35M | P 1.35M | R 1.38M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Apr A 0.70% | C 0.60% | P 0.50% | R 0.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization Apr A 78.00% | C 78.40% | P 78.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -1.4M | C -1.1M | P -2.2M
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