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Daily FX Market Commentary

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 110.503 | EURUSD 1.14386 | AUDUSD 0.73156 | NZDUSD 0.66363| USDCAD 1.30614 | USDCHF 0.99556 | GBPUSD 1.27506 |

 

LMAX Ranges 5am GMT

Highs    Lows

EURUSD               1.14400 | 1.1425

USDJPY                 110.649 | 110.415

GBPUSD               1.27534 | 1.27384

AUDUSD              0.73144 | 0.72961

USDCHF               0.99543 | 0.99436

USDCAD               1.30682 | 1.30556

NZDUSD               0.66341 | 0.66161

EURGBP               0.89740 | 0.89652

EURCHF                1.13863 | 1.1364

EURJPY                 126.451 | 126.239

For today

  • GBP: A very quiet session with the Cable ranging for the most part from the opening 1.2750 areas and down to the 1.2740 level with only minor moves through each level, testing through to the downside late in the session before slowly crawling back to the opening level. downside bids building through to the 1.2650 area and likely to increase into the 1.2630 level with congestive bids through to the 1.2600 areas, weak stops through the level is likely to see some movement but congestion continues in a lighter form. Topside offers through to the 1.2800 areas are initially likely to be light before increasing into the area around the figure, a push through to the 1.2820-30 areas is likely to see stops appearing and the market opening quickly to the stronger 1.2880-1.2900 areas.
  • EUR: Euro drifted from the opening 1.1440 level to run through to the grey hours holding around the 1.1430 areas with limited pushes to the 1.1425 area. ,  Bids into the 1.1300 areas with stronger bids into the 1.1280-70 area with strong stops likely on a test through the level and congestion possible through to the 1.1240 areas and continuing lower. Topside offers increasing into the 1.1440 and likely through to the 1.1460 level and increasing into the opening up the possibility to a stronger move through to the 1.1500 areas.
  • JPY: Drifting a little after the Tokyo opening to test lightly into the low 110.40 areas before recovering slowly to the opening level around 110.55 and pushing in the late part of the session to test lightly above the 110.60 level. Downside bids increasing into the 110.20 levels and likely to continues through to congestive bids into 110.00 areas, a break lower is possibly troublesome with congestion around the 109.60 and 109.30 areas with yield players likely to be in the wings, topside offers light back through the 111.00 area with weak stops on a break through to the 111.40 level and stronger offers reappearing on any attempt to the 112.00 level.
  • AUD: A slow drift from the opening around the 0.7315 areas to test lightly through to the 0.7295 area, the market eventually recovering in quiet trading to the 0.7310 areas and quietly moving into the grey hour, Downside bids in the 0.7250 level cent level are likely to be quickly followed by weak stops and the market opening to a test of the 0.7200  areas where possibly stronger bids make an appearance in the market, topside offers some light congestive offers appear and likely to continue in the same vein through to the 0.7340 area before stops appear on a move through to the 0.7360  even so the market remains congestive on both sides and any move higher is still a little slow

Overnight News

ZAR:

ZAR trades to 15.000 high during early trading

Tail wags the dog? Malema turns up heat on S. Africa’s ANC

GBP:

Business leader’s confidence in UK economy at lowest so far – Yahoo

EUR:

840 French bridges damaged at risk of collapse, warns audit putting Macron’s government under increased pressure

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

GBP       Rightmove House Prices Y/Y Aug A 1.10% | P 1.40%

06:00     EUR        German PPI M/M Jul C 0.40% | P 0.30%

06:00     EUR        German PPI Y/Y Jul P 3.00%

 

Weekend News

TRY/EUR:

Trukish Lira crisis poses additional risk to German economy- FinMin

USD/CNY:

US, China plot road map to resolve trade dispute by November

TRY:

Turkey crisis rattles Asian nations with rising Belt and Road debts

Erdogan says to challenge games on the economy

EUR;

As Euro crisis ends Italy stokes fear of a revival – WSJ

Concern comes amid market jitters over Italian debt, attacks by politicians in Rome on Europe’s establishment – WSJ

Italy’s economy, investors face risks, Codogno tells Repubblica

Italy’s Giorgetti hopes ECB quantitative easing will be extended

QAR/TRY:

Central banks have signed currency swap agreement to establish two-way currency exchange line

Swap agreement between QAR/TRY to provide liquidity support for financial stability

GBP:

Britain is digging in for Civil war over Brexit, destroying the Pound – Telegraph

CHF:

Switzerland faces EU blacklist if tax reform fails – NZZ

USD:

Pres. Trump says nothing to hide from special counsel Mueller – RTRS

Pres. Trump tweets that Russia is a distraction and the focus should be on China

Trump pushes China for better deal with trade talks set to resume – BBG

Big questions on global economy hang over Jackson hole gathering – BBG

Tariffs will hurt US more than rest of world, Maersk says – BBG

Harry Hindsight

  • GBP: A quiet rise through the Asian session with the market lifting off early lows just below the 1.2710 area to test to the 1.2728 areas before drifting around the 1.2720 level through to the grey hour, grey hour buying saw the market quickly rise into the London session testing to the 1.2750 level before falling back on the opening to test to the lows again, the move through early London saw the market chopping between the 1.2730-1.2700 areas through to a steady rise into the NYK session with the market settling into a quiet rise through to the 1.2740 level, the run to the close saw a test through the 1.2730 level before rising quickly again to hold the 1.2750 areas to the close.
  • EUR: A quiet Asian session with the market moving off the 1.1370 lows and testing through to the 1.1390 before holding quietly through into the grey hour, mixed inflationary numbers with a drop in monthly and rising on the yearly saw the Euro quickly push through to the 1.1420 level before dropping back to the previous range through into the NYK session holding steady around the 1.1415 levels until late in the session where the market ran a little further for the close holding just off the highs.
  • JPY: USDJPY struggled to the 111.05 areas in early trading before drifting off to the 110.90 level and holding around those levels through Asia and into the grey hour before dipping through to the 110.70 area for the move into the London session. The market then held around the 110.50 areas for a shorty periods before weak stops took the market to the 110.30 area where the market based deep through into the NYK session lifting in late trading through to range around the 110.60 levels.
  • AUD: Oz moved off early lows around the 0.7250 areas and pushed slowly through to the 0.7280 areas before drifting into the London session, London were early buyers extending the highs to the 0.7290 areas before retuning to the lows over the next couple of hours, the move into the NYK session saw the market holding around the 0.7270 level and then a gradual rise to range in the 0.7280-90 for a long period before running quickly through towards the 0.7320 level and finishing just off the highs.

Yesterday’s premiership results

NZD       PPI Input Q/Q Q2 A 1.00% | C 0.20% | P 0.60%

NZD       PPI Output Q/Q Q2 A 0.90% | C 0.10% | P 0.20%

EUR        Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Jun A 23.5B | C 23.2B | P 22.4B | R 24.4B

EUR        Eurozone CPI M/M Jul A -0.30% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%

EUR        Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jul (F) A 2.10% | C 2.00% | P 2.00%

EUR        Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Jul (F) A 1.10% | C 1.10% | P 1.10%

CAD       International Securities Transactions (CAD) Jun A 11.5B | C 4.91B | P 2.18B | P 3.0B

CAD       CPI M/M Jul A 0.50% | C -0.10% | P 0.10%

CAD       CPI Y/Y Jul A 3.00% | C 2.40% | P 2.50%

CAD       CPI Core – Common Y/Y Jul A 1.90% | P 1.90%

CAD       CPI Core – Median Y/Y Jul A 2.00% | P 2.00%

CAD       CPI Core – Trim Y/Y Jul A 2.10% | P 2.00%

USD       Leading Index Jul A 0.60% | C 0.40% | P 0.50%

USD       U. of Mich. Sentiment Aug (P) A 95.3 | C 98.1 | P 97.9

Stay lucky

Andy

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