Daily FX Market Commentary

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 112.266 | EURUSD 1.15199 | AUDUSD 0.70541 | NZDUSD 0.64709 | USDCAD 1.30676 | USDCHF 0.9902 | GBPUSD 1.31927 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 5.00am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.15725 | 1.15281

USDJPY                 112.312 | 111.97

GBPUSD               1.32447 | 1.31989

USDCHF               0.98953 | 0.98571

AUDUSD              0.70796 | 0.70574

USDCAD               1.30624 | 1.30412

NZDUSD               0.64788 | 0.64574

EURCHF                1.14154 | 1.13934

EURGBP               0.87474 | 0.87313

EURJPY                 129.816 | 129.215

 

For today

• GBP: Rising slowly through into the Tokyo session from the 1.3200 areas the market pushed into the Tokyo session holding around the 1.3210 area for several hours before eventually breaking through the 1.3220 area and quickly spiking to the 1.3245 area before holding quietly for a period and then drifting off towards the 1.3220 level into the grey hour, Topside congestive offers through to the 1.3300 area where the offers are likely to be a little stronger, weak stops on a push through the 1.3310-20 areas will likely see the market struggling around the 1.3350 level with sentimental offers competing with the buyers however, the market is then open to the 1.3430 areas with light congestion only around the figure. Downside bids light through to the 1.3100 areas with very little around the 1.3150 and the market vulnerable to any bad news, a test through the 1.3100 level will likely see strong stops appearing and the market quickly retracing through to the 1.3000 area.
• JPY: USDJPY ranged between the 112.00-112.30 for the most part on a limited day, downside bids into the 111.80 area are likely to see weak stops on a move through and the market moving into congested bids on a push through the 111.50 level and the stronger area around the 111.00 area, any break here is likely to see the selling increase with the lack of yield buyers signalling a sharp move. Topside offers light through to the 112.80-113.00 area with some lighter offers there before weak stops on a push through the 113.25 area opening the market to a return to the 113.80-114.00 areas and stronger offers.
• AUD: The Oz saw a slow steady rise through the session from the opening around the 0.7050 area and tested into the latter part of the session to the 0.7080 areas before holding in a tight range through from those highs to the 0.7070 level, likely strong congestion through the 0.7150 areas to the topside and then opening up a little through to the 72 cents areas a move through the level is likely to see a mix of weak stops and congestion and possibly a little bit of a two way battle before the market opens to the 0.7250 areas and then stronger offers on a move to the 73 cents levels. Downside bids into the 0.7050 areas and increasing on any test towards the 70 cents level however, weak stops wait below but continue to be met with buyers willing to work into the dips with possibly sentimental levels seeing the bulk of the bids.
• EUR: A slow rise through into the Tokyo session saw the market holding just above the 1.1530 levels before breaking quickly higher as Barnier’s comments on a Brexit deal being close to being finalized and the Euro quickly moving through to the 1.1570 area and ranging through to the grey hour between those highs and the 1.1560 level into the grey hour, Brexit chatter likely to dominate the market again, Topside offers through the 1.1600 levels and congestion beyond limiting the power of any rally, a push through the 1.1630 level though could see some weak stops however, strong congestion from that point onwards with minor stops through 1.1660 and a renewal of the strong offers from there to 1.1700. downside bids light back through to the 1.1500 area with light congestion around the level with stronger bids likely to appear on any dips through the 1.1450 area and through to the 1.1400 area, strong stops likely on a dip through the 1.1380 level could open the downside.

 

Overnight News

USD:

NYK fines UAE’s largest bank over lax money laundering safeguards

US says China spy charged with trying to steal aviation secrets

Trump calls stock selloff a correction, says FED is crazy

FED’s Evans sees a pause after lifting US interest rates to around 3%

Pompeo says: release of American pastor by Turkish court would be right thing to do

GBP/EUR:

Things will go wrong if no Brexit deal, drug industry warns

EUR:

Barnier says Brexit deal within reach

JPY:

BoJ’s Sakurai warns trade protectionism could cut Japan growth estimate

USD/KRW:

Trump says: S. Korea will not lift N. Korean sanctions without US approval

CAD:

Canadian errors helped prompt Saudi row, says expelled Canada envoy

 

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

GBP       RICS House Price Balance Sep A -2.00% | C 2.00% | P 2.00% | R 1.00%

JPY         Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index Y/Y Sep A 3.00% | C 2.90% | P 3.00%

AUD       Consumer Inflation Expectation Oct A 4.00% | P 4.00%

11:30     EUR        ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts P 2.45

12:30     CAD       New Housing Price Index M/M Aug C 0.20% | P 0.10%

12:30     USD       CPI M/M Sep C 0.20% | P 0.20%

12:30     USD       CPI Y/Y Sep C 2.80% | P 2.70%

12:30     USD       CPI Core M/M Sep C 0.20% | P 0.10%

12:30     USD       CPI Core Y/Y Sep C 2.30% | P 2.20%

12:30     USD       Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 6) C 205K | P 207K

14:30     USD       Natural Gas Storage P 98B

15:00     USD       Crude Oil Inventories P 8.0M

 

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: A slow rise through the day to push up to the strong offers on the topside, opening around the 1.3145 area the market edged higher through into the Tokyo session topping around the 1.3160 level and holding quietly through to the London session with the grey hour seeing the market testing to the 1.3175 areas, London opening tested the 1.3185 areas before the market started to sell back through to push lightly through the opening level and bouncing lightly off the 1.3135 area, the move through to the NYK session saw the market lifting a little through the 1.3150 area and once through triggering weak stops on a move to the 1.3185 level before pausing for a short period before renewing the rally and steadily pushing through the 1.3200 level and making the highs just after the London session around the 1.3215 areas, limited selloff after failing the 1.3220 resistance saw the market dipping back to the 1.3185 area and ranging around the level to the close.
• JPY: A very quiet range through the Asian session with the market holding around the 113.00 areas and unable to push much beyond the 113.10 level, the move into the London session saw some light buying testing through to the 113.25 level however, the market was unable to push through the level and moved into the NYK session with the Equity markets under pressure the USDJPY dropped quickly back through to the 112.50 areas before finding some light bidding which held until the final hours then a slow drift lower and leaving the market just above the 112.00 area for the new session.
• AUD: The Oz saw some light buying through the Asian session with the market moving off the 71 cents levels to push steadily through to the 0.7125 areas before holding quietly through into the grey hour and a light but firm push through to the 0.7130 level and no follow through by London left the market tumbling back to the 0.7090 area, the move through the London session and then NYK and a tight range around the 71 cents saw the market head into the last few hours dropping quickly back to push through the 0.7045 area into the close on a follow through of the equity market selling in the US.
• EUR: A quiet rise through the Asian session saw the market move from the opening around the 1.1495 level and push though into the Tokyo session testing through to the 1.1515 before holding for the long run through to the London session, grey hour selling saw the market dropping back through the 1.1500 areas and triggering a few week stops through to the 1.1480 level and stronger support holding through to midmorning in London, the move into the NYK session regaining to the figure area again and once into the session fully rising through steadily to make the highs into the London close around the 1.1545 level, struggling with the area and a back drop of falling equity markets the market drifted through to the close testing back to the 1.1515 area for the move to the close.

 

Yesterday’s premiership results

AUD       Westpac Consumer Confidence Oct A 1.00% | P -3.00%

JPY         Machine Orders M/M Aug A 6.80% | C -3.60% | P 11.00%

JPY         Machine Tool Orders Y/Y (Sep P) A 2.80% | P 5.10%

GBP       Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Aug A -11.2B | C -10.9B | P -10.0B | R -10.4B

GBP       Industrial Production M/M Aug A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.10% | R 0.40%

GBP       Industrial Production Y/Y Aug A 1.30% | C 1.10% | P 0.90% | R 1.00%

GBP       Manufacturing Production M/M Aug A -0.20% | C 0.20% | P -0.20% | R 0.00%

GBP       Manufacturing Production Y/Y Aug A 1.30% | C 1.50% | P 1.10% | R 1.40%

GBP       Construction Output SA M/M Aug A -0.70% | C -0.40% | P 0.50%

GBP       GDP M/M Aug A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P 0.30% | R 0.40%

GBP       Index of Services 3M/3M Aug A 0.50% | C 0.60% | P 0.60% | R 0.70%

CAD       Building Permits M/M Aug A 0.40% | C 1.30% | P -0.10% | R -1.50%

USD       PPI M/M Sep A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P -0.10%

USD       PPI Y/Y Sep A 2.60% | C 2.80% | P 2.80%

USD       PPI Core M/M Sep A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P -0.10%

USD       PPI Core Y/Y Sep A 2.50% | C 2.40% | P 2.30%

USD       Wholesale Inventories M/M Aug (F) A 1.00% | C 0.80% | P 0.80%

 

 

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

 

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.

Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

 

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.