Andy Harrison
Good morning,
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LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.255 | EURUSD 1.13918 | AUDUSD 0.70635 | NZDUSD 0.65236 | USDCAD 1.30585 | USDCHF 0.99784 | GBPUSD 1.28814 |
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LMAX Highs and Lows 5.00am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14140 | 1.13953
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.165 | 111.821
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28963 | 1.28814
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99741 | 0.99607
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70845 | 0.7057
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30543 | 1.30156
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.65296 | 0.65027
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13738 | 1.13597
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88557 | 0.88443
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 127.991 | 127.50
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For today
- GBP: A quiet range with the market pushing through to the 1.2895 levels in light trading before slipping back to run into the grey hour holding just above the opening level, downside bids limited and more congestive through to the 1.2860 areas with some stronger bids into the level and then weakness with some limited bids before running to the 1.2800 level and stronger bids and the lows from Sept and possibly stronger stops on a move through the level, topside offers light through to the 1.2960 level with possible weak stops running into light congestion through to the 1.3000 and stronger offers possible and congestive through to the 1.3050 level.
- JPY: A dip from the opening saw the market testing through into the Tokyo session to the 112.00 areas from 112.20, fixing supply saw the market quickly drop through the level only to halt at the 111.85 area and slowly spend the balance of the session recovering the losses not quiet making it but what’s 5 pips between friends, the move through to the grey hour saw the market drifting slowly back towards the 112.00 level with limited volumes, downside bids into the 111.80 level and light congestion limiting the suspected weak stops and stronger bids likely to reappear on a dip to the 111.60-40 areas and strong congestion likely to appear on any move through to the 111.00 with increasing bids on the move lower, even through the level the possibility of congestion continuing through to the 111.50 areas before strong stops are likely to appear and possibly a limited chance of a test to the 110.00 areas, topside offers congested around the 112.50 level with stronger offers then moving in on any push towards the 113.00 level, a push through the 113.25-30 area could see weak stops heling the market make some swift gains through to the 113.70 level however, from there the offers are likely to be particularly strong through to the 114.00 areas, from there the market is likely to be a little mixed however, one would suspect that any further move higher is dependent on yield buyers appearing in a knee jerk reaction to the break to those willing to take profit in the area.
- AUD: A low close saw some early limited selling just below the 0.7060 area but unable to fully break the level and once into the Tokyo session the early sellers there dominated but again were quickly turned into the 0.7050’s and a slow but steady recovery through the session to push the Oz back into the 0.7080’s for the move through to the grey hours just off the highs, Downside bids through to the strong 0.7040 level with likely strong stops through the level and opening the downside through to 70 cents and a greater move intra day with the 0.68 cents level becoming the next target for the market, bids likely around the sentimental 00 and 50 areas could slow the market. Topside offers light through to the 71 cents area with weak stops on a move through the 0.7120 area however, congestion from there to the 0.7150 areas will blunt any rally and although a push through the 0.7160 area could see weak stops the market is likely to struggle with much taken out on either side of the market, a move towards the 72 cents level is possibly a little fanciful.
- EUR: The Euro edged higher through the Tokyo session after a quiet opening below the 1.1400 areas and limited to the 1.1410 areas for much of the session and holding just below there for the run into the grey, downside congestion through to the 1.1360 area before a push through the 1.1340 area starts to see stronger bids moving in and through to the 113.00 and the lows from August under threat, a dip through is likely to see stronger stops appearing and limited congestion just below through to the 1.1275 area where one suspects stronger stops appearing and the market opening to a deeper move intraday. Topside offers light through to the 1.1440 level with some congestion likely through the level and weak stops possibly appearing and through into some congestion, however a push through to the 1.1480 will see limited offers building still and any test through the 1.1500 area could see a small short squeeze appearing into the 1.1550 area.
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Overnight News
JPY:
Japan’s Post not tempted by higher domestic bond yields just yet BBG
CNY/USD:
Chinese steel wheels getting dumped in the US market RTRS
GBP:
Theresa May’s Brexit deal will be almost impossible to get out of Attorney General
Theresa May’s Alice in wonderland Brexit will satisfy absolutely no one Telegraph
EUR:
The EU’s unstoppable showdown with Italy risks a market crash and a Euro break-up
Italy’s League floats aiding banks as bond spreads rise BBG
In budget battle with EU, Italy fights Italians Politico
XAU:
Central banks to increase gold buying for first time since 2013 BBG
USD:
Retired US general says War with China likely in 15 years Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges
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Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Sep A -1560M | C -1365M | P -1484M | R -1470M
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Corporate Service Price Y/Y Sep A 1.20% | C 1.20% | P 1.30%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Confidence Nov C 10.5 | P 10.6
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO Business Climate Oct C 103.2 | P 103.7
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO Current Assessment Oct C 106 | P 106.4
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO Expectations Oct C 100.3 | P 101
11:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision C 0.00% | P 0.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Press Conference
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Goods Trade Balance Sep C -74.9B | P -75.5B
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders Sep (P) C -1.10% | P 4.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durables Ex Transportation Sep (P) C 0.30% | P 0.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories M/M Sep (P) P 1.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 20) C 208K | P 210K
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Pending Home Sales M/M Sep C -0.20% | P -1.80%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 81B
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Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Brexit Brexit Brexit, and still no one knows anything useful apart from the fact that time is running out for a deal and the choice is a bad one or no deal, opening around the 1.2985 areas the move through the Asian session saw very little movement with the market drifting into midsession testing the 1.2975 levels and rising to the 1.2990 level before heading into the grey hour slipping slowly lower through to the London opening, the start of the day and the rumours started with May’s plan still receiving poor comments from several different parties and EU officials unwilling to entertain the Northern Ireland fix, dropping from the opening the market dipped to the 1.2950 level, the market slowed its descent but continued to tall through to the 1.2900 level where support held the market in place for the move through into the NYK session with low spike to the 1.2890 area and rising a little from the low to the 1.2935 area before falling back again into the London close and continuing this time through to the 1.2870 areas before holding quietly off the lows around the 1.2885 area through to the close.
- JPY: USDJPY moved into the Tokyo session moving around the opening 112.40 areas and pushed quickly to above the 112.50 area in mid-session before holding quietly until late in the session slowly rising to the grey hour to push the 112.60 level, London opening saw the start of a slow drift to the 112.50 level holding deeper into the session before rising again pushing through to the NYK session testing to the 112.75 level to make the high of the day and no follow through and drifting through to the end of London to fall back to the opening level, once London had left the market slowly drifted through to the final hours to make the lows rising just off the 112.10 level to the 112.25 area and the close for the day.
- AUD: Early trading saw the market dip slightly to the 0.7080 level before recovering into the Tokyo fix to push through the 0.7090 areas and ranging around the level till late into the Tokyo session and quickly pushing above the 71 cents level and setting the highs around the 0.7105 level and a slow drift to range around the 71 cents area into the London session, sellers appeared and the market dropped back to the 0.7080 level holding quietly for a couple of hours before moving into the NYK session pushing towards the 71 cents level and dropping from that opening in a tight channel through to the close testing the 0.7060 areas.
- EUR: As with Cable a very slow move through the Asian session with Tokyo limited and the market unable to push much beyond the 1.1475 level and eventually drifting through to the 1.1460 areas into midsession before rising to test the high into the grey hour, early London saw the market slip through towards the 1.1455 area before rising on the back of the Euro numbers with early French numbers showing some weakness but then countered by Brexit and mixed numbers from Germany and the Eurozone, Euro’s quickly dipped from the highs and pushed through to the 1.1430 level, the decline slowed but didn’t abate and continued its steady drift through the 1.1400 levels before testing through to the to the 1.1380 level and basing along that level testing lightly above the 1.1400 areas before running to the close below the level and unable to recover any of the losses.
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Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Oct (P) A 53.1 | C 52.6 | P 52.5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Oct (P) A 51.2 | C 52.4 | P 52.5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Oct (P) A 55.6 | C 54.7 | P 54.8
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Oct (P) A 52.3 | C 53.5 | P 53.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Oct (P) A 53.6 | C 55.5 | P 55.9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct (P) A 52.1 | C 53.1 | P 53.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Oct (P) A 53.3 | C 54.5 | P 54.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Sep A 3.50% | C 3.50% | P 3.50% | R 3.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BBA Mortgage Approvals Sep A 38.5K | C 39.0K | P 39.4K | R 39.2K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index M/M Aug A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.20% | R 0.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Manufacturing PMI Oct (P) A 55.9 | C 55.5 | P 55.6
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Services PMI Oct (P) A 54.7 | C 54.1 | P 53.5
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Rate Decision A 1.75% | C 1.75% | P 1.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales Sep A 553K | C 630K | P 629K | R 585K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A 6.3M | C 3.6M | P 6.5M
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Press Conference
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Federal Reserve Beige Book
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