Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.946 | EURUSD 1.13112 | AUDUSD 0.70726 | NZDUSD 0.65171 | USDCAD 1.31577 | USDCHF 1.00847 | GBPUSD 1.27663 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5.00am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13500 | 1.13131
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.969 | 112.722
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28558 | 1.2767
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00846 | 1.00608
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71335 | 0.70747
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31692 | 1.31369
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.65863 | 0.65225
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14212 | 1.1406
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88636 | 0.88138
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 128.094 | 127.619
For today
- GBP: A combination of news items saw the Cable moving slowly off the 1.2765 level and testing quickly on the news that a Financial services deal has been agreed between the UK and the EU however, this is only if there is a Brexit deal, even so the market reacted quickly and the Cable pushed through to the 1.28950 level before finding limited offers and holding quietly in the area for a long move through to the grey hour, topside offers limited on a push through to the 1.2900 areas and some limited congestion through the level and stronger offers likely only on a push through towards the 1.3000 level with a mixture of stops and congestion through the level. downside bids light through to the 1.2760 level with mixed interest with stronger bids likely on any test to the 1.2700 level.
- JPY: Opening around the 112.95 level the market made only a token attempt to push the 113.00 level but failed dismally before starting a slow slide lower through into the Tokyo session testing to the 112.70 areas a slight rally for the fix saw the market moving through to the opening levels but the market did very little and ranged through the session holding in the 112.80 areas. Topside offers likely to be congested into the 113.40 areas and possibly continuing through to the 113.60 before any weakness appears however, the weakness is likely to be short lived as offers start to increase on any approach to the 114.00 level and although there is potential for a break through the level and weak stops above the 114.20 areas the market is likely to run into plenty of take profit selling into the Months highs above 114.40. downside bids likely weak through the 112.70-60 level with congestion then through to the 112.00 level likely to be patchy and limited but all the way through, any break through the level is likely to see stronger bids moving into the market and would not be surprised that yield players are still willing to buy into the market on any moves through to the 111.40 area.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7070 levels the market slowly edged higher through to the Tokyo session holding just above the 0.7080 for the move into the trade balance number, a large number saw the market quickly move through to the 0.7110 area before pausing and grinding through the next 10 pips to trigger a few week stops to the 0.7130 area and then drifting through to the grey hours not far from the highs, strong congestion through to the 0.7140-60 area is likely to slow any further gains however, a push through the level will possibly open up weak stops and a quick push towards strong 72 cent offers with some congestion then through the level into the stronger 73 cents area. Downside bids light on any dip back through the 0.7100 areas with stops likely to be a little thin, congestion under the figure area likely to increase the closer the market moves through to the 0.7040 areas with strong bids then appearing below 0.7020 and the figure level.
- EUR: Euro’s opened around the 1.1315 area and moved into the Tokyo session just below the level before starting a steady rise through to the 1.1350 more as a consequence of the Cable rally and the agreement reported between the UK and EU on financial services, having touched through the 1.1350 level the market started to drift a little falling back to the 1.1340 area before ranging quietly between the two points, while Brexit continues to run its course Italy is again likely to take front stage so any rumours could undermine the small rally we have seen, downside bids into the 1.1300 areas with the lows for the year likely to attract attention, weak stops on a push through the 1.1275 areas joined with possible break out traders could see a quick move lower with limited congestion through to the 1.1150 level where stronger bids are suspected. Topside offers light through to the 1.1380 areas with some congestion then likely to continue through to the 1.1420 area before weak stops appear and the market able to test into the 1.1440-60 areas and stronger offers that are likely to increase on any push to the 1.1500 level.
Overnight News
CNY:
China signals more stimulus measures planned
China’s factory sector barely grows in Oct, export orders extend slump Caixin PMI
USD/KRW:
US-South Korea to decide fate of future drills after review
USD:
Trump hits election trail with threat of troop surge on Mexico border
US Fed unveils proposal to ease regulations for larger banks
EUR:
EU makes new offer to reluctant states on digital tax
Germans to vent Volkswagen fury in mass dieselgate suit
EUR/GBP:
May strikes deal on Financial services Times
Raab not far from Brexit deal
GBP/EUR/USD:
Michael Spencer to sell NEX to US CME thus providing competition to LCH, EU will now struggle to close UK derivatives clearing without causing further problems to US/EU trade – opinion
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Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUD: Â Â Â Â AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index Oct A 58.3 | P 59
JPY:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Oct (F) A 52.9 | P 53.1
AUD:Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) Sep A 3.02B | C 1.71B |P 1.60B
CNY:Â Â Â Â Â Caixin PMI Manufacturing Oct A 50.1 | C 50.1 | P 50
06:45Â Â Â Â CHF:Â Â Â Â Â Â SECO Consumer Confidence Oct C -8 | P -7
08:15Â Â Â Â CHF:Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Oct P 0.10%
08:15Â Â Â Â CHF:Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Oct C 1.10% | P 1.00%
08:30Â Â Â Â CHF:Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Oct C 58.5 | P 59.7
09:30Â Â Â Â GBP:Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Oct C 53 | P 53.8
11:30Â Â Â Â USD:Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Oct P 70.90%
12:00Â Â Â Â GBP:Â Â Â Â Â BoE Bank Rate C 0.75% | P 0.75%
12:00Â Â Â Â GBP:Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target C 435B | P 435B
12:00    GBP:     MPC Official Bank Rate Votes C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
12:00    GBP:     MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
12:00Â Â Â Â GBP:Â Â Â Â Â BoE Inflation Report
12:30Â Â Â Â USD:Â Â Â Â Â Nonfarm Productivity Q3 (P) C 2.00% | P 2.90%
12:30Â Â Â Â USD:Â Â Â Â Â Unit Labour Costs Q3 (P) C 1.10% | P -1.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â USD:Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 27) C 213K | P 215K
13:30Â Â Â Â CAD:Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Oct P 54.8
13:45Â Â Â Â USD:Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Oct (F) C 55.9 | P 55.9
14:00Â Â Â Â USD:Â Â Â Â Â Construction Spending M/M Sep C 0.20% | P 0.10%
14:00Â Â Â Â USD:Â Â Â Â Â ISM Manufacturing Oct C 59.0 | P 59.8
14:00Â Â Â Â USD:Â Â Â Â Â ISM Prices Paid Oct C 67.5 | P 66.9
14:00Â Â Â Â USD:Â Â Â Â Â ISM Employment Oct P 58.8
14:30Â Â Â Â USD:Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 58B
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: How many times do I start this off with a quiet Asian session however, it was and the market held quietly through to late in the session around the opening 1.2705 level, as the market moved to the grey hours it lifted a little to test the 1.2715 areas and into grey hour buying with the market starting a steady rise through to the London opening pushing through the 1.2730 areas and struggling for a short period with the 1.2750 area, slipping only a little from the level the market then saw fresh buying taking the market quickly through to the 1.2775 levels to hold through to the NYK session, better ADP numbers saw a limited reaction for the USD and the market moved around the 1.2765 levels for the bulk of the day a weaker Chicago PMI number saw the Cable make the highs for the day with a quick move through the 1.2800 level triggering weak stops along the way and testing to the 1.2830 before returning to the 1.2765 level for a long drawn out run to the close.
- JPY: Opening around the 113.10 areas the market drifted a little through into the Tokyo session testing the 113.00 level before quickly rising from the opening top push to the 113.30 level and ranging through the Asian session around the 113.20 level, the move into the grey hours saw the market testing back to the opening level and moving into the London session holding through to NYK around the 113.10 areas until the first US numbers appear and running quickly to set the days highs just short of the 113.40 level and quickly dropping back from the level through the open and triggering weak stops on a test to the 112.80 area, the move to the London close saw the market rising a little towards the opening levels but struggling to break through drifted back a little to the close.
- AUD: A quiet day for the Oz the market opened around the 71 cent level and dropped back from the opening range into the Tokyo session falling to the 0.7070 areas the market then remained in a 0.7080-90 levels through to the grey hour where the market started a slow rise towards the opening levels but again failed with limited momentum for anything meaningful and drifting back into the London session and basing through to the NYK session on the 0.7080 line with a couple of pushes through to the 0.7105 level for the high of the day, NYK Option cut saw the Oz drop quickly back to test the 0.7070 level sneaking a little through and unable to move to far from the level to the close.
- EUR: Limited movement through the Asian session with the market holding the 1.1340-50 area through to the grey hours before making limited gains through to the 1.1360 level and the high of the day, London were quick sellers with Italy being the focus of the market and the comments from several peripheral “experts†the market held for a period between the 1.1330-50 areas through to the NYK session before dropping quickly back to the 1.1310 level becoming a little choppy bouncing to the opening levels and returning to the 1.1300 area and holding just off the level through to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZD: Â Â Â Â Building permits MoM Sep A -1.50% | P 7.80% | R 6.80%
JPY: Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial production MoM Sep (P) A -1.10% | C -0.20% | P 0.20%
NZD:Â Â Â Â Â ANZ Business confidence Oct A -37.1 | P -38.3
GBP:Â Â Â Â Â GfK Consumer confidence Oct A -10 | C -10 | P -9
GBP: Â Â Â Â BRC shop price index YoY Oct A -0.20% | P 0.20%
AUD: Â Â Â Â CPI QoQ Q3 A 0.40% | C 0.50% | P 0.40%
AUD:Â Â Â Â CPI YoY Q3 A 1.90% | C 1.90% | P 2.10%
AUD: Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Trimmed mean QoQ Q3 A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.50% | R 0.40%
AUD: Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Trimmed mean YoY Q3 A 1.80% | C 1.90% | P 1.90% | R 1.80%
AUD: Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Weighted Median QoQ Q3 A 0.30% | C 0.40% | P 0.50% | R 0.40%
AUD:Â Â Â Â CPI RBA Weighted Median YoY Q3 A 1.70% | C 1.90% | P 1.90% | R 1.70%
CNY: Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Oct A 50.2 | C 50.6 | P 50.8
CNY:Â Â Â Â Â Non-manufacturing PMI Oct A 53.9 | C 54.9 | P 54.9
JPY: Â Â Â Â Â Â BoJ Rate decision A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
JPY: Â Â Â Â Â Â Consumer confidence index Oct A 43 | C 43.5 | P 43.4
JPY: Â Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts YoY Sep A -1.50% | C -0.50% | P 1.60%
EUR: Â Â Â Â Eurozone unemployment rate Sep A 8.10% | C 8.10% | P 8.10%
EUR: Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI core YoY Oct (A) A 1.10% | C 1.00% | P 0.90%
EUR: Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI estimate YoY Oct A 2.20% | C 2.20% | P 2.10%
USD: Â Â Â Â ADP Employment change Oct A 227K | C 190K | P 230K | R 218K
CAD: Â Â Â Â Industrial product price MoM Sep A 0.10% | C 0.00% | P -0.50%
CAD: Â Â Â Â Raw materials price index MoM Sep A -0.90% | C -0.50% | P -4.60%
CAD: Â Â Â Â GDP MoM Aug A 0.10% | C 0.00% | P 0.20%
CAD: Â Â Â Â GDP YoY Aug A 2.50% | C 2.40% | P 2.40%
USD: Â Â Â Â Employment cost index Q3 A 0.80% | C 0.80% | P 0.60%
USD: Â Â Â Â Chicago PMI Oct A 58.4 | C 60.5 | P 60.4
USD: Â Â Â Â Crude oil inventories A 3.2M | C 3.6M | P 6.3M
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