Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.715 | EURUSD 1.14088 | AUDUSD 0.72059 | NZDUSD 0.66533 | USDCAD 1.30861 | USDCHF 1.00209 | GBPUSD 1.30046 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5.00am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14284 | 1.13912
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.103 | 112.56
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30103 | 1.29861
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00258 | 1.00122
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72502 | 0.71929
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30984 | 1.30729
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.66896 | 0.66401
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14440 | 1.14205
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87849 | 0.87681
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 129.142 | 128.372
For today
- GBP: A rather flat session with the market dipping from the open slowly and holding around the 1.2990 levels through to the move towards the grey hours rising back to the opening levels, topside congestion through to the 1.3050 level and likely to be a struggle given that it is nonfarm payrolls today however, through the level should see a little bit of a two way battle with weak stops contending with congestion pushing through to the 1.3100 level and possibly stronger offers around the area and continuing through, downside bids light through to the 1.2900 areas with possible late comer bids into the area however, weak stops likely through the 1.2880 level and the market quickly testing back to the 1.2800 areas and stronger bids appearing.
- JPY: USDJPY slipped a little bit in early trading to test to the 112.55 level before finding its feet and early Tokyo traders moving in and pushing it back to the opening levels, Tokyo were quick buyers from the opening and the market pushed quickly through to the 112.80 areas, before holding quietly around the level, the market eventually started to drift a little and tested back to the 112.70 areas before news that Trump had asked for a draft trade agreement from the Cabinet and USDJPY quickly rose through to the 113.10 level before slowing on very optimistic trading and slipping through to the grey hours slipping back to the 113.00 level, downside congestion through to the 112.00 areas with possible strong bids into the figure level and through to the 111.80 area before weak stops appear however, as with earlier in the week any fall below the level is likely to find bids into the 111.40-60 areas slowing any further dips with strong congestion likely to continue through that level and into the 111.00 area with strong bids from there through to the 110.50 areas. Topside offers into the 113.25 areas and congestion likely to continue through to the 113.40-60 level before weak stops appear and the market then opening to test to the 114.00 level and stronger offers and the target the high of the month into the 114.40-60 levels.
- AUD: Opening around the 72 cent level the market ranged quietly rising only to the 0.7215 level and then slipping from those early Tokyo highs to hold quietly around the 0.7195 level until the Trump announcement, the market rapidly moved to the 0.7250 level and held just short of the level through to the grey hours in quiet trading, Topside offers congested through to the 0.7260 level before opening a little however, 0.7300 is likely to see some stronger profit taking from medium term traders with weak stops possible on a push through the 0.7320 areas meeting congestive offer through to the 0.7350 areas, downside bids light through to the 0.7150 levels with congestion appearing on any dip into the area and increasing through the 71 cent level with stronger bids likely on any dips into the 70 cent handle again.
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1405 areas the early market saw the market slowly drifting through to test through to the 1.1390 areas before pushing slowly back to the opening levels, the Trump news saw the market quickly rise 10 pips through to the 1.1415 level hold and then move a second time in the same fashion to hold into the grey hours around the 1.1425 level. topside offers likely to be reasonably weak through to the 1.1460 areas however, a push towards the 1.1480 level is likely to see stronger offers appearing and continuing to the 1.1500 level and congestion increasing through to the 1.1520 level and repeated into 1.1540-60, any push through the level is likely to see similar offers continuing. Downside bids lightly congested through to the 1.1320-00 area where stronger bids are likely to appear and with nonfarm payrolls the only threat to the lows of the year, a break through the 1.1300 will likely see some limited congestion into the 1.1275 level before a larger intraday movement lower appears to be possible through to the 1.1150 area.
Overnight News
CNY:
Stocks ever lower intimate’s consumer slowdown sending a less than favourable signal about the economy BBG
Foreign investors buy record $1.2B China stock through Hong Kong – BBG
USD/CNY:
China state owned company charged with Micron secrets theft
Trump: China’s Xi wants to make a fair trade deal
Trump: Will make the right deal with China
Traders take Trumps comments optimistically
Trump said to ask cabinet to draft possible trade deal with XI
EUR:
JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon says Italy may cause European crisis Handelsblatt
MXN:
Early end of Mexico airport concession may trigger default S&P
USD:
Wage data may show first growth above 3% since 2009- BBG
NZD:
NZ Consumer confidence fell to 3yr low in Oct
GBP/EUR:
UK and EU officials push back against Brexit bank deal report BBG
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPY:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Monetary base YoY Oct A 5.90% | C 6.20% | 5.90%
AUD: Â Â Â Â PPI QoQ Q3 A 0.80% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%
AUD:Â Â Â Â PPI YoY Q3 A 2.10% | P 1.50%
AUD: Â Â Â Â Retail sales MoM Sep A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%
0815:Â Â Â Â CHF: Retail sales real YoY Sep C -0.30% | P 0.40%
0845:Â Â Â Â EUR: Italy Manufacturing PMI C 49.7 | P 50
0850:Â Â Â Â EUR: France Manufacturing PMI Oct (F) C 51.2 | P 51.2
0855: Â Â Â EUR: Germany Manufacturing PMI Oct (F) C 52.3 | P 52.3
0900:Â Â Â Â EUR: Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct (F) C 52.1 | P 52.1
0930:Â Â Â Â GBP: UK Construction PMI Oct C 52 | P 52.1
1230:Â Â Â Â CAD: Net change in employment Oct C 25K | P 63.3K
1230:Â Â Â Â CAD: Unemployment change Oct C 5.90% | P 5.90%
1230:Â Â Â Â CAD: International Merchandise trade Sep P 0.5B
1230:Â Â Â Â USD: Change in Non-farm payrolls Oct C 200K | P 134K
1230:Â Â Â Â USD: Unemployment rate Oct C 3.70% | P 3.70%
1230:Â Â Â Â USD: Average hourly earnings MoM Oct C 0.20% | P 0.30%
1230: Â Â Â USD Trade balance Sep C -53.4B | P -53.2B
1400: Â Â Â USD: Factory orders Sep C 0.30% | P 2.30%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A quiet start for the Sydney session in GBP however, news during the day of the about NEX/CME tie up and then the later news that the UK/EU agreement on Financial services saw GBP rallying sharply with the initial run taking the market quickly to the 1.2850 level from the opening around the 1.2765 areas, a long run through to the London session saw the market trading in a tight range around the level and then grey hour buying saw the market pushing steadily higher through into the London opening testing through the 1.2900 levels before finding further offers to stem the move, weaker PMI numbers for Manufacturing saw the market drop back quickly to the 1.2850 level before again starting a steady rise from the level and the push into the NYK session above the 1.2900 levels again, NYK were steady buyers from the opening and the market pushed slowly ahead trading through the congestion easily and testing eventually through the 1.3000 level with weak stops triggered through to the 1.3030 level before drifting back to the figure level for a slow run to the close.
- JPY: USDJPY limited through the day range wise with the market drifting from the opening highs around the 112.95 area and slipping slowly through into the Tokyo session pushing to the 112.70 areas, the market then found a base just off the lows around the 112.80 level and ranged through to the London session more or less contained in the 112.80-90 levels, light attempt into the London session to test the 113.00 level however, after a couple of hours of pushing the area the market gave ground and moved to the NYK session slipping back to the 112.80 areas with NYK pushing it deeper from the open and through to the 112.60 areas and ranging through to the close around the 112.70 area.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7075 areas saw the market slowly rising into the Tokyo session, the Oz trade balance came in very strong and the Oz quickly pushed through the 71 cents level and test slowly through to the 0.7130 areas before slowly for a drift through into the grey hour, steady buying saw the market open in London pushing at the 0.7150 level and the opening saw the market continue its steady buying through to early into the NYK session and pushing through the 72 cents level and holding for a long period in that area to the close.
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1315 area the market eased into the Tokyo session and while the news of an agreement between the UK/EU on financial services the market was pulled along more by the move of GBP than any adherent benefit from the agreement however, details are to be seen on the subject and like the Spanish claim to Gibraltar could all come to nothing at the end of the day, Euro steadily rose through the session testing to the 1.1350 level for the move into the grey hours, early European buying saw the Euro rise into the London opening testing the 1.1365 areas and pushing quickly through to hold for a short period around the 1.1370 from an early attempt to the 1.1390 level, NYK buying finally pushed the market through the 1.1400 level and although there were several pushes the market struggled on each push at the 1.1420-25 area and slipped to a quiet close holding just above the figure level.
Yesterday’s premiership results
AUD: Â Â Â Â AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index Oct A 58.3 | P 59
JPY:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Oct (F) A 52.9 | P 53.1
AUD:Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) Sep A 3.02B | C 1.71B |P 1.60B | R 2.34B
CNY:Â Â Â Â Â Caixin PMI Manufacturing Oct A 50.1 | C 50.1 | P 50
CHF:Â Â Â Â Â Â SECO Consumer Confidence Oct A -6 | C -8 | P -7
CHF:Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Oct A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%
CHF:Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Oct A 1.10% | C 1.10% | P 1.00%
CHF:Â Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Oct A 57.4 | C 58.5 | P 59.7
GBP:Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Oct A 51 | C 53 | P 53.8 | R 53.6
USD:Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Oct A 153.60% | P 70.90%
GBP:Â Â Â Â Â BoE Bank Rate A 0.75% | C 0.75% | P 0.75%
GBP:Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target A 435B | C 435B | P 435B
GBP:     MPC Official Bank Rate Votes A 0—0—9 | C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
GBP:     MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes A 0—0—9 | C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–9
GBP:Â Â Â Â Â BoE Inflation Report
USD:Â Â Â Â Â Nonfarm Productivity Q3 (P) A 2.20% | C 2.00% | P 2.90%
USD:Â Â Â Â Â Unit Labour Costs Q3 (P) A 1.20% | C 1.10% | P -1.00%
USD:Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 27) A 214K | C 213K | P 215K | R 216K
CAD:Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Oct A 53.9 | P 54.8
USD:Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Oct (F) A 55.7 | C 55.9 | P 55.9
USD:Â Â Â Â Â Construction Spending M/M Sep A 0.00% | C 0.20% | P 0.10% | R 0.80%
USD:Â Â Â Â Â ISM Manufacturing Oct A 57.7 | C 59.0 | P 59.8
USD:Â Â Â Â Â ISM Prices Paid Oct A 71.6 | C 67.5 | P 66.9
USD:Â Â Â Â Â ISM Employment Oct A 56.8 | P 58.8
USD:Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 48B | C 53B | P 58B
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