Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 114.058 | EURUSD 1.13637 | AUDUSD 0.72566 | NZDUSD 0.67758 | USDCAD 1.31552 | USDCHF 1.00589 | GBPUSD 1.30616 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 5.00am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD               1.13689 | 1.13407

USDJPY                 114.069 | 113.831

GBPUSD               1.30773 | 1.30434

USDCHF               1.00757 | 1.00528

AUDUSD              0.72703 | 0.7237

USDCAD               1.31826 | 1.31405

NZDUSD               0.67664 | 0.67311

EURCHF                1.14383 | 1.14229

EURGBP               0.87058 | 0.86919

EURJPY                 129.646 | 129.183

 

For today

  • GBP: Thanksgiving and a very slow day with the Cable drifting from the opening around the 1.3065 level testing just above the 1.3070 levels initially and moving into the Tokyo session drifting off to the 1.3045 level for the move into the grey hours, Congestion through the 1.3050-40 areas opens to possible a stronger level into the 1.3000 areas with possible weak stops through the level and increasing bids through to the 1.2950 level, topside offers light through to the 1.3160 areas with only limited offers through to that level however, it could be a slow day and the market struggling even to the 1.3100 level, stops on a push through the 1.3160 area could see the 1.3200 tested in a limited fashion.
  • JPY: The slow descent wasn’t limited to the GBP either with the USDJPY opening around the 114.05 highs and pushing slowly through the 114.00 level into the Tokyo opening and continuing to drift to hold around the 113.85 levels through to the grey hours, topside offers through the 114.00 level with possibility of weak stops on a push through the 114.20 areas and increasing congestion on any move through to the 114.50 level and especially to the 1.14.60 old trendline and highs from last month dominating the topside, downside  bids light through to a very congested 113.40 area with bids likely to increase through to the 113.00 level, weak stops through the 112.80 level are possibly going to be absorbed by strong congestion all the way through to the 112.20 level where better bids are likely.
  • AUD: Opening around the 0.7255 level the market moved up through to the Tokyo session before dropping back quickly from the meagre highs of 0.7270 area before dropping back from the RBA released to test through to the 0.7250 levels holding briefly and then drifting through the session to test the 0.7240 areas and holding through to the grey hour, topside offers into the 0.7300 areas with weak stops likely to appear just through the level or possibly more sentimental through the 0.7320 areas and opening up a limited gain to the 0.7350 areas before further offers appear. Downside bids light through to the 0.7220 areas and likely to increase into the figure level, weak stops is likely to find little support until dipping through to the 0.7150 areas and better support.
  • EUR: Euros edged a little higher into the Tokyo session but almost imperceptible before drifting through the session to break through the 1.1350 levels and basing along the level through to the grey hours,  downside bids likely to be light through to the 1.1320-00 levels and possibly quiet substantial having tested the level twice in the past 3 months and failed to push through, a break will likely see good stops appearing through the 1.1275 areas and the downside opening up for a deeper move intraday with sentimental levels dominating until the 1.1150 level. topside offers likely to be weak through to the 1.1400 level with stronger short term offers likely to appear around the level and weak stops therefore appearing on a push back through the 1.1420 level with only slightly stronger offers into the 1.1450 and the real target being the highs of the week 1.1500 level.

 

Overnight News

USD:

Keystone XL pipeline project blocked by Federal court

USD/CNY:

Trade war hastens key Apple supplier Pegatron’s shift from China Nikkei

MXN:

Mexican Bank stocks sink on incoming governments proposed commissions cut CNBC

EUR:

Italy not to big to save if crisis worsens, ECB’s Nowotny say’s

GBP:

Brexit no deal plan to include new border in Irish sea Times

DUP Leader Foster says PM May has raised alarm bells over the integrity of the UK Times

EUR/GBP:

EU wants customs border in Irish sea in case of no deal Brexit Times (no deal?)

AUD:

RBA lifts 2018 yr average GDP growth forecast to 3.5% from 3.25%

RBA forecasts 4.75% jobless, 2.25% core inflation by mid 2020

RBA higher interest rates likely appropriate at some point

RBA remains considerable uncertainty over pace of wage growth

RBA doesn’t see strong case to adjust cash rate in near term

JPY:

Japan’s Aso expect strong US-Japan relation to continue

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

JPY:        Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Oct A 2.70% | C 2.80% | P 2.80%

AUD:     RBA Monetary Policy Statement

AUD:     Home Loans M/M Sep A -1.00% | C -1.10% | P -2.10% | R -2.20%

CNY;      CPI Y/Y Oct A 2.50% | C 2.50% | P 2.50%

CNY:      PPI Y/Y Oct A 3.30% | C 3.40% | P 3.60%

09:30     GBP:      Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Sep C -11.4B | P -11.2B

09:30     GBP:      Industrial Production M/M Sep C 0.10% | P 0.20%

09:30     GBP:      Industrial Production Y/Y Sep C 0.50% | P 1.30%

09:30     GBP:      Manufacturing Production M/M Sep C 0.10% | P -0.20%

09:30     GBP:      Manufacturing Production Y/Y Sep C 0.40% | P 1.30%

09:30     GBP:      Construction Output M/M Sep C 0.20% | P -0.70%

09:30     GBP:      GDP M/M Sep C 0.10% | P 0.00%

09:30     GBP:      GDP Q/Q Q3 (P) C 0.60% | P 0.40%

09:30     GBP:      Index of Services 3M/3M Sep C 0.50% | P 0.50%

13:30     USD:      PPI M/M Oct C 0.20% | P 0.20%

13:30     USD:      PPI Y/Y Oct C 2.70% | P 2.60%

13:30     USD:      PPI Core M/M Oct C 0.20% | P 0.20%

13:30     USD:      PPI Core Y/Y Oct C 2.50% | P 2.50%

15:00     USD:      Wholesale Inventories M/M SEP (F) C 0.30% | P 0.30%

15:00     USD:      U. of Mich. Sentiment Nov (P) C 98 | P 98.6

 

Harry Hindsight

  • GBP: A quiet Asian session with FOMC ahead, Cable opened around the 1.3135 levels and slowly dropped back to base along the 1.3120 level lifting back to the opening levels on the move into the grey hours, grey hours selling saw a quick dip back to the 1.3100 level for the first time bouncing off the level into the London session to make the highs of the day around the 1.3150 level, the market struggled with the level and dropped back through to the 1.3115 area pausing and running a second time pushing lightly through and then holding along the level into the NYK session rising a little before drift lower the closer the market moved to the FED announcement and dropping quickly through to the 1.3050 levels on a slightly stronger announcement and pushing only a little off those lows to finish the day.
  • JPY: A slow steady rise through the Asian session pushing from the early lows around the 113.50 level and moving into the Tokyo session pushing through the 113.65 area, the rise continued slowly through to the 113.75 into mid-session before moving into Tokyo lunch and dipping back a little for the move into the grey hours, early London picked up the market to the previous highs but was unable to do very little with the USDJPY and it traded sideways deep through into the NYK session before starting to rally well before the announcement to test through the 113.90 level holding until the FED spoke and then pushing through the offers to the 114.10 areas for the close.
  • AUD: A slow drift through into the Tokyo session falling back from the opening around the 0.7275 area to test the mid 0.7260’s before recovering quickly once the CNY trade numbers were released, the Oz traded around the 0.7280 levels through towards the grey hours, pushing firmly through to the mid 0.7290’s for the lead into to the London market then nothing, no follow through and the 73 cent remained intact for the London session and trading around the 0.7290 areas through to the NYK session and drifting back from a flirtation with the 73 cent level making the high around the 0.7302 level holding 0.7280 area and the market slipping quickly back as the USD rallied across the board and dipping to the 0.7250 are before finding enough interest to arrest the decline and a limited rise from the level into the close.
  • EUR: A very quiet day for the Euro through to the FOMC, Asia held quietly through the session with a tight 1.1420-35 range and moving into the grey hours almost unchanged, a dip in German trade numbers saw the Euro dip for the first time towards the 1.1410 level before recovering a little into the ECB chatter and then dropping back for the second time and eventually pushing through to the 1.1400 areas and the limited bids. the move through to NYK saw the Euro rallying towards the 1.1445 highs again however, US numbers and general consensus saw the USD rallying steadily and the Euro under pressure through to the FOMC and already through the 1.1400 for the release, no change for the Fed saw the market dropping quickly as the USD rallied on the commentary and the market quickly dipped to hold the 1.1350 level bouncing a little to finish the day just off the lows.

 

Yesterday’s premiership results

NZD:      RBNZ Official cash rate A 1.75% | C 1.75% | P 1.75%

JPY:        BoJ Summary of opinions

JPY:        Machine orders MoM Sep A -18.30% | C 8.90% | P 6.80%

JPY:        Current account (JPY) Sep A 1.33T | C 1.36T | P 1.43T

GBP:      Rics House price balance Oct A -10.00% | C 2.00% | R -2.00%

CNY:      Trade balance (USD) Oct A 34.0B | C 36.3B | P 31.7B

CNY:      Trade balance (CNY) Oct A 234B | C 209B | P 213B

JPY:        Eco watchers survey current Oct A 49.5 | C 48.9 | P 48.6

CHF:       Unemployment rate Oct A 2.50% | C 2.50% | P 2.50%

EUR:      German trade balance Sep A 17.6B | C 21.2B | P 18.3B | P 18.2B

EUR:      ECB economic bulletin

EUR:      European commission economic forecasts

CAD:      Housing starts Oct A 206K | C 195K | P 189K

CAD:      New housing price index MoM Sep A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P 0.00%

USD       Initial jobless claims (Nov 3) A 214K C 214K | P 214K | R 215K

USD:      Natural Gas storage A 65B | C 56B | P 48B

USD:      FOMC rate decision (lower bound) A 2.00% | C 2.00% | P 2.00%

USD:      FOMC rate decision (upper bound) A 2.25% | C 2.25% | P 2.25%

               

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.