Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 114.058 | EURUSD 1.13637 | AUDUSD 0.72566 | NZDUSD 0.67758 | USDCAD 1.31552 | USDCHF 1.00589 | GBPUSD 1.30616 |

LMAX Highs and Lows 5.00am GMT

                                High | Low

EURUSD 1.12516 | 1.12052

USDJPY 114.044 | 113.58

GBPUSD 1.28898 | 1.2834

USDCHF 1.01118 | 1.00949

AUDUSD 0.72184 | 0.71645

USDCAD 1.32474 | 1.32154

NZDUSD 0.67504 | 0.67081

EURCHF 1.13615 | 1.13356

EURGBP 0.87428 | 0.87271

EURJPY 128.309 | 127.505

For today

  • GBP: Moving around the 1.2850 level on the opening the market traded slowly higher through into the Tokyo session to test to the 1.2870 areas before slowing a little and holding for an hour in the area before renewing the rise and pushing through to the 1.2890 level with some minor stops triggered before slipping back a little and holding around the 1.2880 areas to the grey hours, congestion through to the 1.2800 areas with weak stops on a push through the 1.2780 level opens up the market for a test through to the 1.2700 levels and possibly stronger bids towards last months lows, topside offers likely to be sentimental only and limited through the 1.2900 area an the possibility of a little more of a short squeeze available with weak stops through the level and the market looking at stronger congestion around the 1.2950 areas, any move through that level will likely see stronger offers building in front of the 1.3000 area and congestion continuing through the figure.
  • JPY: Holding quietly into the Tokyo session the market edged towards the session and dropped quickly through to the 113.60 level before halting and starting a slow reverse, the push through the opening 113.80 levels saw the market trigger some weak stops and run quickly through to the 114.00 topping around the 114.05 and holding quietly around the figure levels for the run to the grey hours, topside likely to be congested through to the 114.20 level with weak stops on a strong push through the level however, congestion is likely to reappear quickly and the market struggling through the 114.40-60 areas with a break through the 114.60 level likely to see limited stops as the market again tries to push towards the 115.00 area and possibly strong congestion followed by stops through the 115.10-20 areas. Downside bids light through to the 113.20 area with light congestion around the level and then increasing congestion on any push through the 112.80 and its weak stops, the close the market moves towards the 112.00 figure area the stronger the congestion is likely to be.
  • AUD: A quiet start like the rest of the market before a small short squeeze against the USD late into the session, opening around the 0.7175 level the market tested to the 0.7165 level before rising slowly through to the 0.7180 areas and triggering a small squeeze through to the 0.7215 level before holding steady on the run to the grey hours around the 0.7210 area. Topside offers light through to the 0.7240-60 areas with limited congestion through the level building to stronger offers on any attempt through the 73 cents level, a strong push through will likely see some reasonable stops appearing and the market quickly moving to the 0.7340-60 areas and stronger congestion, downside bids light through to the 71 cents level with strong congestion eventually turning into strong support on any test through to the 0.7050 areas.
  • EUR: Opening around the 1.1220 level to push through into the Tokyo session slowly rising, slowing through the 1.1250 area and holding steady just below the level for the run to the grey hours, downside bids into the 1.1220-00 areas has to look weak however, they held in a limited market yesterday and traded off the area after strong volume for a US bank holiday, a push through is likely to see weak stops on the move through with limited technical levels and generally sentimental through to the 1.1050 areas where stronger bids are likely to appear, if not around those 50’s and 00 areas. Topside offers light through to the 1.1300 area limited congestion with the possibility of weak stops accumulated just beyond and opening up a quick move into the 1.1350 area and the start of stronger congestion through to 1.1400.

Overnight News

GBP:

ERG (European research group) Makes bid to force publication of Brexit legal advice Sun

Students and car loans send debt towards crisis levels Times

UK consumer spending sags in October Visa- Reuters

UK Opposition party leader Corbyn “we can’t stop Brexit” Der Spiegel

MXN:

Mexican stocks drop with Peso after Senate defies Lopez Obrador

OIL:

WTI slides for 11th straight day as Trump criticises OPEC BBG

USD:

Dow plunges more than 550 points as Apple leads tech rout CNBC

US Car import probe advances as Trump plans trade team meeting BBG

Fed’s Daly says strong economy merits gradual rate normalization

US Security Advisor John Bolton: Trump is prepared to have a second summit with Kim Jong Un

Bolton: Pompeo’s meeting with senior N. Korea envoy will be rescheduled

Bolton: Trump has given N. Korea chance to walk through door to different future if they denuclearize

Bolton: Meeting between Trump and President Xi at G20 summit will be significant in trade talks

Bolton: US objects to China’s unilateral military steps in S. China sea

Bolton: The pace of US freedom of navigation operations in S. China sea has increased

Bolton: Iran is under real pressure and it is US intention to squeeze Iran very hard

Bolton: US wants to get oil exports from Iran down to zero, enforce sanction rigorously

CNY/USD:

China’s Liu to visit US to pave way for Xi Trump meeting BFW

AUD:

Australia house prices could drop 30% in UBS recession scenario UBS

EUR:

Italy will keep 2.4% deficit target for 2019 Il Sole

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

AUD NAB Business Confidence Oct A 4 | P 6

AUD NAB Business Conditions Oct A 12 | P 15

07:00 EUR German CPI M/M Oct (F) C 0.20% | P 0.20%

07:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Oct (F) C 2.50% | P 2.50%

08:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices M/M Oct C 0.10% | P -0.20%

08:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Oct P 2.60%

09:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change Oct C 4.3K | P 18.5K

09:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Oct P 2.60%

09:30 GBP Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Sep C 3.00% | P 2.70%

09:30 GBP Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/Y Sep C 3.10% | P 3.10%

09:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Sep C 4.00% | P 4.00%

10:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment Nov C -24.2 | P -24.7

10:00 EUR German ZEW Current Situation Nov C 65 | P 70.1

10:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Nov C -17.3 | P -19.4

19:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement (USD) Oct C -116.6B | P 119.1B

 

Harry Hindsight

  • GBP: Opening lower from the weekend news of Cabinet meeting on Brexit was officially cancelled, moving from the opening around the 1.2930 level the market managed a meagre rise through to the mid 1.2940’s before holding quietly around that level through to deep in the session before starting a slow slide lower through to the grey hours, the selling continued on the news that was rumoured on Thursday and traded down through the 1.2850 level into early morning in London before finding a base around the 1.2830 areas and recovering through into the NYK session pushing back through the 1.2870 area, with US bank holiday saw the market rising quickly as early funds took advantage of the level testing quickly through to the 1.2940 on a little short squeeze before slowly drifting off again through to the end of London and a slow drift through to a long run to the close trading in a tight pattern around the 1.2850 level.
  • JPY: Opening slightly higher saw the market holding the market opening through to the Tokyo session and rising steadily through to the 114.00 levels holding just above the level into grey hours and putting a little spurt in as the early traders moved in to test the 114.20 levels before starting to lose traction on the move into the London session, slipping quickly back to the 114.00 level the market then reversed all its gains and tipped through the opening levels to trade through to the 113.70 levels and hold around the level quietly before making the lows of the day on the close in London testing into the 113.60’s before ranging around the 113.80 area to the close.
  • AUD: Early uptick filling the gap on the charts to push lightly through the 0.7235 areas holding for a few hours before starting a slow steady decline through into the London session to make the lows around the 0.7190 areas, London came in buying from the early lows with the market moving through to the opening levels into the NYK session in a slow move having touched the 0.7220 area the market again started to drift and the end of the London session did little to help the market and it only stopped drifting the close.
  • EUR: Opening a touch lower the market drifted to the 1.1315 areas the market slowly rose through the Asian session to the 1.1330 level before moving towards the grey hours slipping slowly initially through to the grey hour testing the 1.1310 area, the market dropped sharply through to the 1.1275 areas as the early European market ran for stops with very little until that level to contain the selling the market held the level to the London opening before the follow through appeared and the market tested through the 1.1250 area basing along the level through to the close in London and never quiet able to make any convincing moves to the 1.1275 level, with the London session behind the market the selling started to appear slowly through the session and once the lows around the 1.1235 area broke another quick dip through to the 1.1215 level and the close.

Yesterday’s premiership results

JPY: Domestic CGPI YoY Oct A 2.90% | C 2.80% | P 3.00%

JPY: Machine tool orders YoY Oct (P) A | P 2.90%

          

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.