Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 112.954 | EURUSD 1.13348 | AUDUSD 0.72314 | NZDUSD 67809 | USDCAD 1.32366 | USDCHF 0.99736 | GBPUSD 1.28121 |

LMAX Highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.13495 | 1.13264

USDJPY                 113.291 | 112.879

GBPUSD               1.28465 | 1.2757

USDCHF               0.99846 | 0.99637

AUDUSD              0.72521 | 0.72249

USDCAD               1.32336 | 1.3210

NZDUSD               0.67953 | 0.67571

EURCHF                1.13163 | 1.12994

EURGBP               0.88541 | 0.88372

EURJPY                 128.499 | 127.937

For Today

  • GBP: Opening a little higher from Friday’s highs testing just above the 1.2835 level for the high of the day and then drifting through into early Tokyo testing lightly through the 1.2795 areas before pushing slowly back above the level and rallying back to the opening levels for the move into the grey hours in quiet trading, Topside offers through the 1.2900 areas with weak stops possibly through the congestive offers around the 1.2900-40 areas, stronger offers are then likely to start appearing on a move through the 1.2950 level and continuing through to the 1.3000 areas and likely to increase through to the level with possibly plenty of congestion through the level, notwithstanding Brexit news. Downside bids light back through to the 1.2780 level and some congestion there likely to slow the dip through to the 1.2760 areas with a push opening a small gap of limited bids to the 1.2720-00 levels where stronger bids are likely to reappear.
  • JPY: A quiet opening with little change from Friday however, the move into the Tokyo session saw some strong buying moving in and the market pushing steadily through to the 113.30 levels, before ranging around the 113.20 level in quiet trading through to the grey hours, downside congestion through the 112.40-00 area with weak stops on a dip through the 111.80 level running quickly into congestion around the 111.60-40 areas before limited weakness to the stronger 111.00 level. Topside offer light through to the 113.40 areas with congestion appearing in the area and limited congestion beyond that level before running to the 114.00 level again and stronger offers through to the 114.40 with possible stronger stops above the level opening a challenge to the 115.00 level.
  • AUD: The Oz opened around the 0.7230 and the close on Friday, the market ranged around the 0.7235 areas through to deep into the Tokyo session before pushing from the 0.7225 area lows to test through towards the 0.7250 area to range quietly in the mid 0.7240’s for a few hours to the grey hours, Downside bids light through to the 0.7210-00 areas with stronger bids hanging around the area, weak stops limited with some congestion into the 0.7170 areas before the market opens slightly and the 0.7150 possibly challenged where stronger bids appearing into the level and through to 71 cents. Topside offers weak but congested on any climb to the stronger 73 cents area and those offers likely to increase on a push through triggering weak stops through to the 0.7350 level.
  • EUR: A slow drift from the opening the 1.1340 area and once into the Tokyo session testing through the 1.1330 level and holding the level for several hours only to rally through towards the 1.1345 level late in the session, Topside offers into the 1.1420 with weak stops possibly through the level and the market opening to limited offers through 1.1440-60 area and then stronger offers appearing on any move to the 1.1500 level. downside bids light through to the 1.1300 again with some limited congestion with stronger bids on any move through to the lower end of the 1.12 handle.

 

Overnight News

Metals

Iron ore futures routed as China mills profitability in retreat BFW

KRW/USD:

  1. Korea not responding to US offer for talks BBG

GBP:

You face a stark choice Britain’s May warns lawmakers over Brexit – RTRS

UAH:

Ukraine Pres. Asks lawmakers to meet to discuss martial law

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

NZD       Retail Sales Ex Inflation Q/Q Q3  A 0.00% | C 1.00% | P 1.10%

JPY         PMI Manufacturing Nov (P) A 51.8 | C 53 | P 52.9

09:00     EUR        German IFO Business Climate Nov C 102.3 | P 102.8

09:00     EUR        German IFO Expectations Nov C 99.3 | P 99.8

09:00     EUR        German IFO Current Assessment Nov C 105.6 | P 105.9

09:30     GBP       BBA Mortgage Approvals Oct C 38.9K | P 38.5K

 

Weekend News

USD:

Trump expresses dissatisfaction with Treasury Secretary WSJ

EUR:

Leaked text shows EU to demand access to UK fishing waters post Brexit

EU ready to hand May Brexit deal after 11th hour row with Spain

Conte says’ he’ll tell EU that Italy needs Financial stability ANSA

EUR/GBP:

EU leaders approve PM May’s deal however, Minister admits Government could collapse if it fails in Commons vote – Telegraph

Brexit deal is a depressing masterpiece of political theatre Sydney Morning Herald

EU signals little hope for Italy by setting firm line on Brexit

Italy’s Salvini hints at compromise with EU over budget deficit row – DPA

AUD:

Labour get a landslide win in Australia’s second biggest state, Victoria BBG

CHF:

Swiss firmly reject plan that risked worsening EU relations BBG

GBP:

DUP locked in secret talks with Cabinet ministers over plan B Brexit Arlene Foster

RUB/UAH:

Ukrainian Naval ships seized by Russian special forces in Black sea

Ukraine says two of its sailors were wounded in the incident

 

Harry Hindsight

  • GBP: A quiet Asian session holding around the opening levels with a dip through to the 1.2870 level in mid Tokyo before pushing slowly through to above the 1.2885 area for the move towards the grey hours, a dip into the grey hours saw the market lightly testing through the 1.2870 area and bouncing into early London buyers before moving into the London session and a slow drift through to poor EU numbers with a quick test to the 1.2835 area and bouncing only slightly off the level and a brief pause around the 1.2850 area and starting the run lower again, and while a Brexit deal is on the table for the weekend the prospects of the horse trading in the House of Commons is not something to look forward too, the market dipped through to the 1.2820 levels and ran for the most part in a tight range through into a rather quiet NYK session dipping around the US numbers and basing on the 1.2800 areas with only a tiny penetration of the figure level and holding through to the close rising only a little from those lows.
  • JPY: Overall a quiet session for the USDJPY with the market making early highs sneaking through the 113.00 level however, after a couple of hours the market drifted through the session testing through to the 112.90 level and pushing through into the grey hours breaking through into the 112.80 areas for the move into London, the market ranged through quietly testing slightly through either side of the 112.80-90 levels and holding through deep into the NYK session dipping to its lows through to the 112.66 area before bouncing as the numbers were absorbed and rising back to range for a few hours in the previous 112.80-90 area, the move to the close saw the market pushing back above the 112.90’s for the close.
  • AUD: Opening around the 0.7255 level the market made a limited push through towards the 0.7258 level and the high for the day before ranging around the 0.7250 through the Asian session, London sellers saw the market testing through to the 0.7235 level holding briefly then running a second time to test the 0.7220 area, light buying in early NYK came to nothing and the market again tested the 0.7220 level pushing a tiny bit through the level to make the low of the day and bouncing off the level to push steadily through to the 0.7235 area and ranging quietly around the 0.7230 level through to the close.
  • EUR: A slow rise through the Asian session but limited in movement, pushing from the early lows just above the 1.1400 level just before the Tokyo opening and then trading slowly through to the 1.1415 areas and the move into the grey hours saw the range widen a little and making the high for the day just above the 1.1420 area before dropping quickly on the release of the EU numbers, overall weak numbers across the board saw the market dip through to the 1.1365 level quickly and then bounce like a soggy cat before running a second time and testing through to the 1.1335 areas and a quiet range through to the London close before dropping back through to the lows and then drift to test the 1.1330 and the lows of the day before slowly rising a little for the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

EUR        German GDP Q/Q Q3 (F) A -0.20% | C -0.20% | P -0.20%

EUR        France Manufacturing PMI Nov (P) A 50.7 | C 51.3 | P 51.2

EUR        France Services PMI Nov (P) A 55 | C 55 | P 55.3

EUR        Germany Manufacturing PMI Nov (P) A 51.6 | C 52.2 | P 52.2

EUR        Germany Services PMI Nov (P) A 53.3 | C 54.5 | P 54.7

EUR        Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Nov (P) A 51.5 | C 52 | P 52

EUR        Eurozone Services PMI Nov (P) A 53.1 | C 53.6 | P 53.7

CAD       Retail Sales M/M Sep A 0.20% | C 0.00% | P -0.10% | R 0.00%

CAD       Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Sep A 0.10% | C 0.30% | P -0.40%

CAD       CPI M/M Oct A 0.30% | C 0.10% | P -0.40%

CAD       CPI Y/Y Oct A 2.40% | C 2.20% | P 2.20%

CAD       CPI Core Y/Y Oct A 1.90% | C 1.90% | P 1.90%

CAD       CPI Core – Median Y/Y Oct A 2.00% | C 2.00% | P 2.00% | R 1.90%

CAD       CPI Core – Trim Y/Y Oct A 2.10% | C 2.10% | P 2.10% | R 2.00%

USD       US Manufacturing PMI Nov (P) A 55.4 | C 55.8 | P 55.7

USD       US Services PMI Nov (P) A 54.4 | C 55 | P 54.8

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.