Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 113.937 | EURUSD 1.13478 | AUDUSD 0.73189 | NZDUSD 68501 | USDCAD 1.32835 | USDCHF 0.9959 | GBPUSD 1.27894 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14008 | 1.13852
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 113.490 | 113.30
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.27965 | 1.27726
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99695 | 0.99568
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73256 | 0.73121
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32947 | 1.32729
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68812 | 0.68565
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13568 | 1.13435
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89178 | 0.89001
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 129.298 | 129.06
For Today
- GBP: A quiet session through from the opening 1.2790 highs and dipping to the 1.2780 level through into the Tokyo session, the market eventually tested through to the 1.2775 areas before returning to the quiet range around the 1.2780 level for the move into the grey hours, congestion through the 1.2765 areas however, this may have been thinned out a little with yesterdays action and the market likely to see patchy bids through to closer to the 1.2700 areas and possibly strong bids in the area, a push through the level will likely see weak stops and may be some break out trades however, the congestion is likely to continue through to the 1.2650 areas with light sentimental bids and then stronger bids into the 1.2630 level through to the 1.2600 areas, topside offers light through to the 1.2800 level and limited offers in the area could see minor stops opening up a test to the 1.2850 level and congestion is likely to continue through to the stronger 1.2900 areas.
- JPY: Very quiet session with the market contained in just over 10 pip range, drifting from the opening around the 113.45 level the market pushed to the 113.35 level and held the area deep into Tokyo before recovering quickly to the opening levels again and moving sideways until close to the grey hours before dipping again into the 113.30’s for the move towards London, light topside offers through to the 114.00 areas with strong offers suspected in the area through to the 114.20 level with weak stops likely through the level however, the topside is limited with stronger offers through the 114.40-60 areas with larger break out stops above the level, downside bids light through to the 113.20 level and continuing through to the 113.00 areas with lighter congestion through the level and limited stops on a push through the 112.80 area with stronger bids not suspected until closer to the 112.40 areas.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7320 levels the market dipped in early trading through to the 0.7315 area before slowly recovering and pushing through to the early Tokyo morning pushing the 0.7325 level the market did again dip lower and setting the low around the 0.7312 level and the range of the session complete through to the grey hours with the market moving forward just holding above the lows. Topside offers light through the 0.7340-60 area with limited congestion however, a push through the level will likely see stronger offers on a push through to the level and continuing through to the 0.7450 areas before any weakness starts to appear, downside bids light back through the 73 cents level with some light stops possible and weak congestion until closer to the 0.7250 areas and continuing through to stronger bids into the 72 cents area.
- EUR: Topside offers into and through the 1.1400 levels with weak stops likely on a push through the level is likely to see congestion continuing through the level and into the 1.1430 areas weak stops possible through the level however, the congestion is likely to continue through to the 1.1480 level in varying strengths with the 1.1500 level likely to be a very strong point and one has to look back to Oct for the last serious push through. Downside bids light through to limited congestion around the 1.1350 level and although congestion is likely to be light it will possibly get stronger the closer the market moves to the 1.1270 areas with weak stops on a move through and the market opening for a test to the 1.1220-00 level and stronger bids.
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Overnight News
USD:
Fed sees more rate rises if economy stays on track FastFT
Slumping semi-conductor stocks don’t bode well for broader market – DJ
China trade hawk Navarro is part of Trumps G20 team – BBG
MXN:
Mexican Minutes suggest interest rates could go higher DJ
NZD:
RBNZ now sees first rate rise in Nov 2019 peak 2.25%
NZ Minister renews calls for Government to impose bank levy
NZ 4-month budget deficit NZ$287M wider than forecast
GBP:
UK MP’s propose amendment to stop PM May’s Brexit deal or no deal RTRS
May: I don’t think there should be another Brexit referendum
May: More uncertainty, division if MP’s reject deal
Cross party MP’s support amendment to May’s plan (no numbers) – BBG
EUR:
German inflation slows from six year high as ECB nears QE exit BBG
ECB singles out Italy as Financial stability challenges rise
CNY:
China Nov Manufacturing PMI worsens amid trade war BFW
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Oct A 1.50% | P -1.50% | R -1.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Rate Oct A 2.40% | C 2.30% | P 2.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Nov A 1.00% | C 1.00% | P 1.00%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Oct (P) A 2.90% | C 1.20% | P -0.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GfK Consumer Confidence Nov A -13 | C -11 | P -10
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Private Sector Credit M/M Oct A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Nov A 50 | C 50.2 | P 50.2
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Non-manufacturing PMI Nov A 53.4 | C 53.8 | P 53.9
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Index Nov A 42.9 | C 43.3 | P 43
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Y/Y Oct A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P -1.50%
08:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â KOF Leading Indicator Nov C 99.8 | P 100.1
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Unemployment Rate Oct C 8.00% | P 8.10%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Nov C 2.10% | P 2.20%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Nov (A) C 1.10% | P 1.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP M/M Sep P 0.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Product Price M/M Oct P 0.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Raw Materials Price Index M/M Oct P -0.90%
14:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Chicago PMI Nov C 58.5 | P 58.4
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Tokyo saw early lows to the 1.2820 areas before starting a slow steady rise through the session to test to the 1.2850 levels as the market approached the grey hours, to make the highs for the day, the move through the grey hours saw the market drifting through to the London opening and the market moving through the early lows saw the market dropping back quickly despite rumours over negotiations beginning to turn a little in the UK’s favour the overall undercurrent remains one of negativity and the chances of the deal being ratified in the House of Commons very unlikely even with rumoured cross party agreements to the deal, the market quickly tested to the 1.2765 levels and traded around the level for the move through to the NYK session making the lows around the 1.2755 area and eventually moving slowly higher through the session remaining in touch with the 1.2765 level but unable to push to the 1.2800 area again, the move to the close saw the market pushing towards the 1.2790 levels.
- JPY: A weak start for the USDJPY with mixed comments coming our before the FOMC meeting, the market drifted through to the Tokyo session losing just over 10 pips from the opening around the 113.65 areas, Tokyo initially but for a short period before the selling returned and the market moved in a tight channel through to the 113.25 areas and trading around the level through into the London session rising only as far as the 113.40 levels and moving into the NYK session holding the tight range, NYK saw the low early in the session testing the 113.20 level before returning to the London range, the move to the London close saw the market rising pushing towards the 113.50’s into the FOMC but then drifted through to the close.
- AUD: A quite day for the Oz with the market drifting from the 0.7305 opening and testing lightly through into Tokyo to just below the 73 cents level holding the 0.7295 lows the market started to move slowly through the balance of Tokyo to push to the 0.7320 levels, grey hours buying saw the London session opening around the 0.7330 area and then a steady drift for the move to the NYK opening, with early NYK buying quickly to push the market up to its highs just short of the 0.7345 level and a slow drift through to the FOMC level to again test the 73 cents area, FOMC saw the market rise back to the 0.7320 level and traded quietly around the level to the close.
- EUR: Euro moved through into the Tokyo session holding roughly around the 1.1370 opening level and started a slow steady rise through to the 1.1390 areas into the grey hours, a slow drift through to the London session with French GDP inline helping the Euro to the 1.1395 areas Brexit and strong selling in early trading testing quickly back to the opening levels and eventually dropping through the area to test through to the 1.1350 level and being saved by the bell with early NYK buyers appearing and starting a rise through to the previous highs into the opening eventually seeing a little push to touch through the 1.1400 levels, a little choppy from then on with the market bouncing around the 1.1370-1.1400 through to the FOMC and lifting from that point through to the 1.1390 level for the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Trade Y/Y Oct A 3.50% | C 2.70% | P 2.10% | R 2.20%
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ANZ Business Confidence Nov A -37.1 | P -37.1
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Private Capital Expenditure Q3 A -0.50% | C 2.00% | P -2.50% | R -0.90%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q3 A -0.20% | C 0.50% | P 0.70%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â French GDP Q/Q Q3 (P) A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Change Nov A -16K | C -10K | P -11K
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Claims Rate s.a. Nov A 5.00% | C 5.00% | P 5.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Mortgage Approvals Oct A 67K | C 65K | P 65K | R 66K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Money Supply M4 M/M Oct A 0.70% | C 0.30% | P -0.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Nov A 1.09 | C 0.96 | P 1.01
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Economic Confidence Nov A 109.5 | C 109 | P 109.8 | R 109.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Confidence Nov A 3.4 | C 2.3 | P 3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services Confidence Nov A 13.3 | C 13 | P 13.6 | R 13.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Nov (F) A -3.9 | C -3.9 | P -3.9
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Nov (P) A 0.10% | C 0.00% | P 0.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Nov (P) A 2.30% | C 2.20% | P 2.50%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account Balance (CAD) Q3 A -10.3B | C -11.9B | P -15.9B | R -16.7B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Income Oct A 0.50% | C 0.40% | P 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Spending Oct A 0.60% | C 0.40% | P 0.40% | R 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator M/M Oct A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator Y/Y Oct A 2.00% | C 2.10% | P 2.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core M/M Oct A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core Y/Y Oct A 1.80% | C 1.90% | P 2.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 24) A 234K | C 221K | P 224K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Pending Home Sales M/M Oct A -2.60% | C 0.80% | P 0.50% | R 0.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A -59B | P -134B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Minutes
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