Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 113.475 | EURUSD 1.13185 | AUDUSD 0.73135 | NZDUSD 68814 | USDCAD 1.32885 | USDCHF 0.99895 | GBPUSD 1.27527 |

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.13698 | 1.13285

USDJPY                 113.820 | 113.188

GBPUSD               1.27838 | 1.27327

USDCHF               1.00009 | 0.99694

AUDUSD              0.73834 | 0.73488

USDCAD               1.32678 | 1.32015

NZDUSD               0.69262 | 0.68894

EURCHF                1.13435 | 1.13148

EURGBP               0.89098 | 0.88805

EURJPY                 129.044 | 128.739

For Today

• GBP: Dipping from the opening trading through to the 1.2735 areas before early Tokyo started buying the market steadily pushing to the 1.2750 level and Tokyo opening pushing through to the 1.2765 areas and holding for an hour or so before pushing ahead through to test towards the 1.2780 levels for the move into the grey hours. Downside congestion into the 1.2700 level with possible weak stops on a strong push through the level and limited congestion then until the market moves towards the 1.2630 level and the lows from mid-2017 the focus however, congestion is likely to increase on dips through and the market possibly strong, a break down through the level though will open a deeper move through to the 1.2500 areas in time. Topside offers light through the 1.2800 level with weak stops likely limited by some congestion just above, and that congestion limited through to the 1.2900 level where better stops are likely for a test to the 1.3000 but requiring some good news whatever, that may be.
• JPY: USDJPY opened higher pushing from the 113.60 level to test above the 113.80 in the first hour, early Tokyo saw the market drop back steadily through to the 113.60 levels holding for a few hours around the 113.55 level and filling the gap on the charts, after a pause the market dipped through to make the lows for the run to the grey hours holding around the 113.50 level. downside bids into the 113.20 level with congestion through the level and around the 113.00 levels, a push through the 112.80 area does little to relieve that congestion with the market likely to continue through to the 112.00 level with a break through 111.80 likely to see downside weakness appear. Topside offers light through to the 114.00 level with likely heavy offers through the level and continuing through to the 114.60 lightly at first but appearing stronger through to that level.
• AUD: A quiet session with the market opening strongly and dropping back to the 0.7380 drifting into the Tokyo session testing the 0.7350 level and basing there for a few hours before slowly recovering through to the 0.7370 levels and into the grey hours, congestion into the 74 cents levels with the congestion likely to be strong through to the 0.7460 and then running into further congestion on the approach to the 75 cents levels, downside bids light through the 73 cents levels with congestion through to the 0.7250 areas before some weakness is likely to appear to open a test to the 72 cents.
• EUR: Opening higher the market initially attempted to fill the gap however, early sellers were unable to push through the 1.1330 level and started a slow rise through to range through to the 1.1350 areas into the grey hours, topside offers into the 1.1400 areas, congestion through the level with weak stops possibly on a move through the 1.1420-30 levels before offers start to reappear again building into the 1.1460 level and increasing into the 1.1480-1.1500 area. Downside bids light through to the congested 1.1350 level with weakness likely to be limited through to the 1.1300 level and increasing on dips through the level.

 

Overnight News

EUR:

Paris’s violent protests torch Macron’s authority

OIL:

Alberta premier announces 8.7% oil production cut CBC

EUR:

Spain’s far right could help oust socialists in largest region NYT

USD:

Trump is talking up his trade truce with China, the reality is far more unsettling CNN

Trump says China has agreed to remove tariffs on car imports

CNY:

China partly censors US embassy statement on trade truce

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

AUD       AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index Nov A 51.3 | P 58.3

NZD       Terms of Trade Index Q/Q Q3 A -0.30% | C 0.10% | P 0.60% | R 0.40%

JPY         Capital Spending Q3 A 4.50% | C 8.60% | P 12.80%

AUD       TD Securities Inflation M/M Nov A 0.00% | P 0.10%

AUD       Company Operating Profit Q/Q Q3 A 1.90% | C 2.90% | P 2.00% | R 2.40%

AUD       Building Approvals M/M Oct A -1.50% | C -1.40% | P 3.30% | R 5.50%

JPY         PMI Manufacturing Nov (F) A 52.2 | C 51.8 | P 51.8

CNY        Caixin PMI Manufacturing Nov A 50.2 | C 50.1 | P 50.1

08:15     CHF        Retail Sales Real Y/Y Oct C -0.70% | P -2.70%

08:30     CHF        PMI Manufacturing Nov C 56.3 | P 57.4

08:45     EUR        Italy Manufacturing PMI Nov C 48.9 | P 49.2

08:50     EUR        France Manufacturing PMI Nov (F) C 50.7 | P 50.7

08:55     EUR        Germany Manufacturing PMI Nov (F) C 51.6 | P 51.6

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Nov (F) C 51.5 | P 51.5

09:30     GBP       PMI Manufacturing Nov C 52 | P 51.1

14:30     CAD       Manufacturing PMI Nov P 53.9

15:00     USD       Construction Spending M/M Oct C 0.40% | P 0.00%

14:45     USD       Manufacturing PMI Nov (F) C 55.4 | P 55.4

15:00     USD       ISM Manufacturing Nov C 57.5 | P 57.7

15:00     USD       ISM Prices Paid Nov C 70.5 | P 71.6

15:00     USD       ISM Employment Nov P 56.8

23:50     JPY         Monetary Base Y/Y Nov C 5.70% | P 5.90%

Weekend News

GBP:

May talks trade as domestic troubles mount over Brexit deal BBG

May threatened with vote to bring down government over Brexit BBG

Bank crisis in Italy may spark doom loop for UK warns BoE – Telegraph

G20

G20 leaders give not to Trump in watered down trade language BBG

Xi, Trump on no additional tariffs after Jan 1 BFW

Trump, Xi agree to halt new tariffs in bid to contain trade war BBG

Trump, Xi both get trade war wins with harder issues unresolved BBG

Trump, Xi celebrate warm talks but remain far away from a final deal on trade – CNN

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: A dip from the opening saw the market trading through the Asian session holding around the 1.2780 level with minor dips through to the 1.2770 level and the run to the grey hours seeing a recovery through to the 1.2790 opening areas, the move to the London session saw the market rising through to test just beyond the 1.2800 area however, the rally was short lived and the market dropped back quickly to the 1.2780 areas and the move through saw weak stops with a push to the 1.2750 level with minor dips through the level but generally pushing through to the 1.2770 area for the move into the NYK session, another sell off saw the lows made for the day testing through into the 1.2735 area and although the market rallied through to the close in London quickly reversed once the London session ended dropping quickly back to the 1.2740 level for the run to the close.
• JPY: Choppy opening however, the rest of the Asian session saw the USDJPY mired around the 113.40 level with limited dips through to the 113.35 area before trading to the opening towards the 113.50 area into the London session, London were slow buyers through into the NYK session with the market making meagre gains to hold around the 113.60 level into the London close and the market rising again through to the 113.70 area for the highs of the day and the market then drifting for the final hours back through the 113.50 level.
• AUD: A limited day for the Oz with the market testing to the highs of the day early in Tokyo pushing lightly through the 0.7320 levels before the market drifted back to hold around the 0.7310 level through to the grey hours, London slowly moved the Oz through the 73 cents with NYK testing back to the 0.7315 only in quiet trading with the initial rise quickly making new lows for the day testing the 0.7285 level before slowly rising to finish the day almost unchanged.
• EUR: Asia took the Euro to the early highs testing the 1.1400 level however, while the market slowly drifted through to the London session the 1.1400 area was never seen again and the market increased its move lower through to the 1.1360 areas before holding through to the NYK session and dipping in early NYK to the 113.40 level before slowing and drifting through to range in the 113.10-20 levels to the close.

Yesterday’s Premiership results

NZD       Building Permits M/M Oct A 1.50% | P -1.50% | R -1.30%

JPY         Jobless Rate Oct A 2.40% | C 2.30% | P 2.30%

JPY         Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Nov A 1.00% | C 1.00% | P 1.00%

JPY         Industrial Production M/M Oct (P) A 2.90% | C 1.20% | P -0.40%

GBP       GfK Consumer Confidence Nov A -13 | C -11 | P -10

AUD       Private Sector Credit M/M Oct A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%

CNY        Manufacturing PMI Nov A 50 | C 50.2 | P 50.2

CNY        Non-manufacturing PMI Nov A 53.4 | C 53.8 | P 53.9

JPY         Consumer Confidence Index Nov A 42.9 | C 43.3 | P 43

JPY         Housing Starts Y/Y Oct A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P -1.50%

CHF        KOF Leading Indicator Nov A 99.1 | C 99.8 | P 100.1 | R 100.2

EUR        Eurozone Unemployment Rate Oct A 8.10% | C 8.00% | P 8.10%

EUR        Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Nov A 2.00% | C 2.10% | P 2.20%

EUR        Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Nov (A) A 1.00% | C 1.10% | P 1.10%

CAD       GDP M/M Sep A -0.10% | P 0.10%

CAD       Industrial Product Price M/M Oct A 0.20% | C -0.50% | P 0.10% | R 0.20%

CAD       Raw Materials Price Index M/M Oct A -2.40% | C -5.20% | P -0.90% | R -1.00%

USD       Chicago PMI Nov A 66.4 | C 58.5 | P 58.4

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