Daily FX Market Commentary

Good Morning and Happy New Year,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.594 | EURUSD 1.14667 | AUDUSD 0.70515 | NZDUSD 0.67116 | USDCAD 1.36382 | USDCHF 0.98127 | GBPUSD 1.27615 |

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.14808 | 1.14427

USDJPY                 109.725 | 109.275

GBPUSD               1.27874 | 1.2724

USDCHF               0.98399 | 0.9810

AUDUSD              0.70541 | 0.70021

USDCAD               1.36558 | 1.35903

NZDUSD               0.67242 | 0.66845

EURCHF                1.12691 | 1.12528

EURGBP               0.90066 | 0.89817

EURJPY                 125.893 | 125.172

For Today

  • GBP: A quiet session overall for the Cable with very little on Brexit until governments start to jabber on reopening of those respective governments, opening widely on light volume the market eventually settled down to trade in the 1.2740-50 levels, brief rise above the 1.2750 levels eventually saw the market drifting back below on the move into the Tokyo session and eventually slip through the 1.2740 areas to range around the 1.2730 level, the market lifted as the we approached the grey hours, light congestion down through the 1.2700 level with stronger bids likely on a test through the 1.2650 level increasing into the 1.2620-00 area, a dip through the 1.2580 level could see weak stops appearing however, stronger bids likely through to the 1.2500 levels before stronger stops are likely to appear. Topside offers light through to the 1.2800 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.2810-20 level and light offers in depth running through to the stronger 1.2900 level.
  • JPY: Premarket saw a weak run to the 109.95 areas before drifting to the official opening around the 109.70 areas a limping slowly through to the Tokyo session testing the 109.72 areas before drifting off through to the 109.55 level on the opening, the market then held through to the CNY PMI numbers which then saw a strengthening in the JPY and the USDJPY slipping steadily through to the 109.35 areas to hold in a tight range through to the grey hours, light bids into the current lows with an old trendline supporting the market with congestion likely through to the 109.00 level before weak stops appear on a move through the 108.80 with weaker bids into the 108.50 area likely but leaving the market vulnerable to a break through and a deeper move to test to the 107.50 areas, topside offers light through to the 110.50 area before stronger offers start to appear with weak stops possibly on a move through the 110.20 level leaving the market open to those offers, a move through the level will likely see continuing congestion on any test to the 111.00 levels and likely to increase on any further gains.
  • AUD: Opening around the 0.7050 areas the market made minimal gains in early trading to make the highs around the 0.7054 level before drifting into the Tokyo session to hold around the 0.7040 level until the CNY data was released and the market quickly dropped to test the 0.7000 areas for a couple of hours before eventually pushing off the level to test into the grey hours holding the 0.7030 area. Strong bids likely through the 70 cents level and potential strong stops holding below the 0.6980 and 0.6940 areas to open up the potential for a test to the 2016 lows and 68 cents however, those downside bids from there are likely to be very strongly congested. Topside offers light through to some congested offers into the 0.7080-0.7100 areas with weak stops on a push through the 0.7120 area a possibility, and the market likely to be better offered on any move to the 0.7150 level with a mixture of stops and strong congestion through the level.
  • EUR: A slow drift lower having topped around the 1.1468 level just before the Tokyo session but feeling the pressure from cross selling against the JPY, the market held around the 1.1445 through the mid part of the Tokyo session before seeing strong buying from early European and Middle east interest to push the market to the 1.1495 areas into the grey hours, congestion to the topside and unfavourable news out of Italy held the weak offers in play through to the 1.1500 level with weak stops mingled with stronger congestion through to the 1.1540-60 levels however, any further gains are likely to be met by increasing offers through to the 1.1600 levels. Downside bids congested around the 1.1400 level with that congestion running deep through the 1.13 handle before stronger firm bids into the 1.1300 level and through to the 1.1280 level from Mid-December.

 

Overnight News

CNY:

Xi says nobody can change the fact that Taiwan is part of China – RTRS

Xi: People on both sides of the Taiwan strait should seek reunification – RTRS

XI: Most Taiwan people acknowledge that Taiwan independence will only cause disaster

China Dec factory activity shrinks for first time in 19mths – Caixin PMI

AUD:

Australia Corelogic Dec house price index falls 1.3% MoM

GBP:

Business leaders fear UK economic condition to worsen – FT

KRW/USD:

  1. Koreas Kim warns Trump talks as risk over sanctions – BBG

EUR:

Italy’s Market watchdog has decided to suspend trading in Banca Carige shares today

ECB officials request Carige capital increase at meetings – il Sole

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

01:45     CNY        Caixin PMI Manufacturing Dec A 49.7 | C 50.3 | P 50.2

08:45     EUR        Italy Manufacturing PMI Dec C 48.4 | P 48.6

08:50     EUR        France Manufacturing PMI Dec (F) C 49.7 | P 49.7

08:55     EUR        Germany Manufacturing PMI Dec (F) C 51.5 | P 51.5

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Dec (F) C 51.4 | P 51.4

09:30     GBP       PMI Manufacturing Dec C 52.6 | P 53.1

14:30     CAD       Manufacturing PMI Dec P 54.9

14:45     USD       Manufacturing PMI Dec (F) C 53.9 | P 53.9

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

New Year’s Day

 

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