Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 108.56 | EURUSD 1.14679 | AUDUSD 0.72164 | NZDUSD 0.6834 | USDCAD 1.32669 | USDCHF 0.98409 | GBPUSD 1.28379 |

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.14814 | 1.14586

USDJPY                 108.598 | 108.061

GBPUSD               1.28659 | 1.28369

USDCHF               0.98482 | 0.9829

AUDUSD              0.72181 | 0.71796

USDCAD               1.32847 | 1.32484

NZDUSD               0.68316 | 0.68038

EURCHF                1.12874 | 1.12772

EURGBP               0.89359 | 0.89082

EURJPY                 124.419 | 123.955

For Today

  • GBP: A quiet start to the week as you’d expect with a Tokyo holiday and PM May’s final attempt to get her deal through the House of Commons tomorrow, opening a little stronger than Fridays close the market struggled to the Topside and dipped from the early highs around the 1.2865 level and drifted sideways through the day and finally dipping through the 1.2850 areas to trade through to the grey hours holding above the 1.2840 levels. Cable struggles with a congestive 1.28 handle and a limited day for direction with various factions circling PM May like sharks, topside offers through to the 1.2900 where they are likely to be a little stronger if the market can test through the level, a push through will see light stops on a move beyond the 1.2910-20 areas and limited congestion through the 1.2950 areas, beyond that level congestion is limited with sentimental values dominating until the 1.3050 area where the market thickens again. Downside lightly congested through the 1.2800 areas with weak stops on a dip through however, any Brexit chatter other than the usual rumours could see the market pushing quickly through to the 1.2630 areas where congestion increasing on a move through 1.2700.
  • JPY: Opening in line with Fridays close the market drifted through to the bank holiday Tokyo session holding the 108.40 level and never looking like it was going to push back to the openings near 108.60, the market dropped after a further couple of hours hitting the 108.20 level quickly before holding quietly for a limited time before testing through the 108.10 levels before holding through to the grey hours around the level. Some congestion into the 108 level and continuing through to the 107.50 level before some weak stops appear, a move through the 107.00 level is likely to see some buying moving in with importers possibly loving this current range any further losses are likely to see stronger bids into the 106.50 area.
  • AUD: Opening around the 0.7210 areas the market saw some early selling with talk of shaky banks possibly struggling with new capital requirements, with the JPY strengthening in mid-session the Oz dipped through the 72 cents levels and then held the 0.7180 areas then quietly trading around the 0.7185 level through to the grey hours, downside see’s some congestion around the 0.7150 level however, its likely to be light with better bids into the 71 cents level, topside offers into the 0.7240 level likely to continue through to the 0.7260 areas and then increasing on a push through the 0.7280 areas into 73 cents.
  • EUR: Rising slowly through the session the market struggled for direction and only the stronger JPY saw the Euro rise from the opening 1.1460 level to test towards the 1.1480 level and ranging for the most part around the 1.1470 areas, Topside offers light back through the 1.1500 areas with no strong offers until another test towards the 1.1570 level increasing on any test to the 1.1600 level with congestion through the level if it were to break and very little in the way of stops until above the 1.1660 areas. Downside bids congested but weak on a move back to the 1.1400 level with limited stops on a dip through the 1.1380 areas, a push through opens up the 1.1350 level with further congestion in the area and likely to be a little more stronger with only a strong push through the 1.1300-1.1280 opening the downside up for strong selling.

 

Overnight News

CNY/EUR/USD:

Chinese foreign investment into Europe and USA falls by 73% in 2018

AUD:

Australia’s Westpac says banks may face problems hitting new capital targets – CNBC

EUR:

Germany braces for travel disruptions due to airport strikes CHO

ECB’s Nowotny urges caution on rate increases as growth slows BBG

Greece’s Tsipras on the brink as confidence vote looms this week BBG

EU prepares delay on Brexit until July at earliest Guardian

Germany’s far right AfD to campaign on possible EU exit Politico.EU

More woe for Eurozone as labour productivity growth grinds to a halt – FT

USD/TRY:

Trump says Turkey to be devastated economically if Kurds hit

GBP:

Rebel Tory MPs plot to seize control of Brexit if PM May’s deal is rejected, Leadsom warns Daily Mail

PM May says no Brexit more likely than no deal BBC

CNY:

If China tech thought 2018 was bad, wait till this year unfolds BBG

China’s e-retailers slash Iphone prices Nikkei

USD:

White House sought options to strike Iran WSJ

Government shutdown breaks record, with no end in sight – RTRS

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

AUD       ID Securities Inflation MoM Dec A 0.40% | P 0.00%

CNY:      Trade Balance (USD) Dec A 57.06B | C 51.6B | P 44.7B

CNY        Exports YoY (USD) Dec A 0.2% | C 6.6% | P 10.2%

CNY        Imports YoY (USD) Dec A -3.1% | C 12.0% | P 7.80%

CNY        Trade Balance (CNY) Dec A 395B | C 345B | P 306B

CNY        Exports YoY (CNY) Dec A -4.4% | C 2.0% | P 5.4%

CNY        Imports YoY (CNY) Dec A -7.60% | C 4.5% | P 3.00%

1000       EUR        Eurozone Industrial Production MoM C 0.30% | P 0.20%

2350       JPY         Japan Money stock M2+CD YoY Dec C 2.40% | P 2.30%

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

NZD       Building Permits MoM Nov A -2.00% | P 1.50% | R 1.40%

JPY         Household spending YoY Nov A -0.60% | C 0.20% | P -0.30%

JPY         Current Account (JPY) Nov (P) A 1.44T | C 1.10T | P 1.21T

AUD       Retail sales MoM Nov A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.30%

JPY         Eco Watchers Survey current Dec A 48 | C 50.3 | P 51

GBP       Visible trade balance (GBP) Nov A -12.0B | C -11.4B | P -11.9B

GBP       Industrial production MoM Nov A -0.40% | C 0.20% | P -0.60% | R -0.90%

GBP        Industrial Production YoY Nov A -1.50% | C -0.60% | P -0.80% | R -0.60%

GBP       Manufacturing Production MoM Nov A -0.30% | C 0.40% | P -0.90% | R -0.70%

GBP        Manufacturing Production YoY Nov A -1.10% | C -0.70% | P -1.00% | R -0.70%

GBP       Construction output MoM Nov A 0.60% | C 0.20% | P -0.20%

GBP       GDP MoM Nov A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%

USD       CPI MoM Dec A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P 0.10%

USD       CPI YoY Dec A 1.90% | C 1.90% | P 2.20%

USD       CPI Core MoM Dec A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%

USD        CPI Core YoY Dec A 2.20% | C 2.20% | P 2.20%

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.