Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.889 | EURUSD 1.14367 | AUDUSD 0.72266 | NZDUSD 0.68764 | USDCAD 1.31114 | USDCHF 0.99792 | GBPUSD 1.30325 |

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.14405 | 1.14308

USDJPY                 110.040 | 109.782

GBPUSD               1.30448 | 1.30267

USDCHF               0.99862 | 0.99711

AUDUSD              0.72647 | 0.71946

USDCAD               1.31213 | 1.31027

NZDUSD               0.69019 | 0.68717

EURCHF                1.14183 | 1.14086

EURGBP               0.87782 | 0.87666

EURJPY                 125.873 | 125.536

For Today

  • GBP: A weak start with the Cable dipping into the Tokyo opening from the 1.3040 area to test lightly through the 1.3030 area before returning to the opening levels and ranging quietly around the open to the grey hours, Downside congestion on any dip through the 1.3020 area and possibly stronger bids appearing in a normal market, a push through sees similar sentimental bids into the 1.3000 area with weak stops on a move through the level and opening the market to a deeper drop to stronger bids into the 1.2900 areas, topside offers light through to the 1.3100 area with and then stronger congestion moving through to the 1.3200-20 areas and limited sentimental offers around the 1.3250 area and stronger into 1.3300.
  • JPY: USDJPY traded slowly higher from the opening to push a little through the 110 level but unable to push ahead with the Lunar New Year limiting volume, the market eventually started to drift after a few hours testing slowly through to the grey hours holding the 109.85 areas, topside through to the 110.20 levels, a test through will likely see weak stops through the level and the market quickly pushing into the 110.40-60 levels before finding limited offers protecting the 111.00 levels. Downside bids congested through to the 108.50 levels with stronger bids in the area however, a push through will likely see weak stops appearing and the market likely to quickly test the 108.20-00 areas and possibly stronger bids reappearing, with bids below likely to be sentimental however, don’t forget the possibility of importers likely to find the levels attractive.
  • AUD: The mover of the day with the market drifting through into the Tokyo session from the 0.7225 level and dipping through the 0.7210 level on the move into the Tokyo session trading to a low around the 0.7195 areas before starting a slow recovery, the move through to the RBA announcement saw the market pushing the 0.7210 levels, no change for the rate and the market quickly moving higher on a slightly less dovish remarks and the market hitting 0.7250 level before slowing its ascent and then slowly pushing to move through to the 0.7265 areas. Topside offers into the 73 cents level with congestion through the area and into the 0.7320 areas, a mix of weak stops and congestion continues with any move through to the 0.7340-60 likely to meet stronger offers and those offers then increasing through the 0.7380 areas. Downside may see some light congestion back into the 72 cent levels weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.7180-70 areas and the market again pushing towards the stronger bids through the 0.7140-00 levels.
  • EUR: A very quiet range for the Euro with early slow rise from the 1.1435 levels to the 1.1440 and then back to test towards the 1.1430 area for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers remain in the 1.1480-1.1500 levels with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1520 areas, some light congestion through to the 1.1550 areas and likely to increase the closer the market moves through to the 1.1560 area and strong offers to 1.1600 strong downside bids into the 1.1400 level area with weak stops likely through the level but with congestion through to the 1.1350 level and increasing on any move lower towards the 1.1320-00 areas.

 

 

Overnight News

AUD:

House price tumble triggers new car sales slide AFR

Oz Jan. Services PMI 51 vs. 52.7 in Dec Nikkei

National debt helpline calls skyrocket in Western Australia amid epidemic of financial stress AUB

RBA leaves cash rate target unchanged at 1.50%

RBA: Central scenario for around 3% growth this year

RBA: low rates continuing to support Australian economy

RBA: Inflation pick up to take a little longer than earlier seen

RBA: Some downside risks have increased domestically

USD:

Fed’s Mester says rates may eventually need to rise a bit BFW

More alarm bells as banks report tightening lending standards while loan demand slides ZeroHedge

Oil slides as US stockpiles swell, factory orders disappoint – BBG

EUR:

Merkel visits Abe as Berlin rethinks China-centric stance

German industries now urge caution toward state dominated economy Nikkei

EUR/GBP:

EU chief tells UK nobody is considering offering legal assurances on backstop in hammer blow to PM May

JPY:

Another ex BoJ official flags risk of stronger Yen ahead – BBG

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

AUD       AiG Performance of Service Index Jan A 44.3 | P 52.1

GBP       BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Jan A 2.10% | C -0.20% | P -0.70%

AUD       Trade Balance (AUD) Dec A 3.68B | C 2.25B | P 1.93B | R 2.26B

AUD       Retail Sales M/M Dec A -0.40% | C 0.00% | P 0.40% | R 0.50%

AUD       RBA Rate Decision A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%

08:45     EUR        Italy Services PMI Jan C 50 | P 50.5

08:50     EUR        France Services PMI Jan (F) C 47.5 | P 47.5

08:55     EUR        Germany Services PMI Jan (F) C 53.1 | P 53.1

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Services PMI Jan (F) C 50.8 | P 50.8

09:30     GBP       Services PMI Jan C 51.1 | P 51.2

10:00     EUR        Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Dec C -1.60% | P 0.60%

14:45     USD       US Services PMI Jan (F) C 54.2 | P 54.2

15:00     USD       ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite Jan P 57

 

Harry Hindsight

  • GBP: A quiet Asian session with the market making early highs to the 1.3085 areas before dropping back quickly to the 1.3070 level and holding in that range through to the grey hours, early buyers from London took the market through to the 1.3090 levels however they were unable to follow through on the move and the market collapsed on weaker Construction PMI’s to test the 1.3050 level and remain anchored to the level through into the NYK session, a dip in US factory orders saw the Cable quickly make new highs however, the downside recalled the Cable with Brexit and underlying weakness allowing the market to test through the 1.3050 level and weak stops carrying it too the 1.3030 level before bouncing a little, initially recovering to the 1.3050 levels and then drifted to the close testing back towards the lows in a long drawn out evening session.
  • JPY: Early trading saw the USDJPY push through to the lows slowly before rising quickly on the Tokyo opening to push from the 109.45 level to the 109.60 level, from there a quiet rise through to the grey hours with the market grinding steadily to the 109.80 level and eventually pushing through into London and holding the 109.90 areas through to NYK in very quiet trading for the pair, NYK pushed the market steadily through the 110.00 level triggering some weak stops and a move through to the 110.15 areas before dipping back and slowly drifting to the close around the 109.90 levels.
  • AUD: A slow drift through the day with early trading in Tokyo dropping the market quickly from the highs just above the 0.7250 area and dipping to the 0.7230 level, the market continued to trade around that level through to the London session and very slowly drifted through the level testing into the NYK opening pushing the 0.7210 areas before holding and moving slowly through to hold the 0.7225 areas for the close.
  • EUR: The Euro traded slowly through into the Tokyo session, dipping from the opening 1.1460 level and then holding quietly around the 1.1455 levels through to midsession before slowly declining through to the 1.1440 levels, the move into the London session saw a stronger range trading the 1.1440-55 areas however, the move into the NYK session saw the market dropped quickly through to the 1.1425 level and basing along the level rising slowly to the 1.1435 level in very quiet trading.

 

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

CNY        Caixin China PMI Services Jan A 53.6 | C 53.3 | P 53.9

NZD       Building Permits M/M Dec A 5.10% | P -2.00% | R -1.90%

JPY         Monetary Base Y/Y Jan A 4.70% | C 4.60% | P 4.80%

AUD       TD Securities Inflation M/M Jan A -0.10% | P 0.40%

AUD       Building Approvals M/M Dec A -8.40% | C 2.10% | P -9.10% | R -9.80%

EUR        Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Feb A -3.7 | C -1.1 | P -1.5

GBP       Construction PMI Jan A 50.6 | C 52.6 | P 52.8

EUR        Eurozone PPI M/M Dec A -0.80% | C -0.60% | P -0.30%

EUR        Eurozone PPI Y/Y Dec A 3.00% | C 3.30% | P 4.00%

USD       Factory Orders Dec A -0.60% | C 0.30% | P -2.10%

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

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LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.