Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 110.381 | EURUSD 1.12758 | AUDUSD 0.70616 | NZDUSD 0.67295 | USDCAD 1.33024 | USDCHF 1.00391 | GBPUSD 1.28563 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.12851 | 1.12733
USDJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.474 | 110.34
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28810 | 1.28557
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00474 | 1.00339
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70867 | 0.70542
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33146 | 1.32878
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.67378 | 0.67195
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13324 | 1.13215
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.87723 | 0.87608
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 124.821 | 124.459
For Today
- GBP: Volumes beginning to pick up through the session however, the market was unable to push beyond the 1.2870 levels and only a minor dip to the 1.2855 area from the opening, a quiet range holding around the 1.2865 area through to the grey hours, Downside congestion and possibly stronger bids into the 1.2800 areas with the congestion likely to continue through to the 1.2760-40 areas and then increasing in size on any dip through to the stronger 1.2700 areas. Topside offers light through to the 1.2900 level with some congestive offers likely to be moving into the areas with weak stops on a push through the level and opening up a quick move through to the 1.2980 areas where stronger offers are likely.
- JPY: Opening around the 110.35 level the market struggled for a short period into the Tokyo session before rising through to the 110.55 level and into light congestion, after several hours of ranging in that 20 pip range the market pushed higher again triggering some minor stops to test to the 110.65 level before drifting a little for the run to the grey hours just off those highs. Weak bids back into the 110.00 levels with weak stops likely on a move through the 109.80 area however, congestion quickly moves into the 109.60-40 areas and slow any dips to the stronger bids into 109.20-00.
- AUD: A quiet move through into Tokyo from the 0.7060 levels before testing a little higher on a stronger business confidence number and the although the market pushed the 0.7070 area weaker home loans saw sellers testing the market through into the 0.7050 areas before making a further push higher and a slow test through to the 0.7088 taking a few hours before drifting from the highs through to the grey hours, bids into the 0.7050 areas with stronger bids likely on a move through to the 0.7020-00 levels and likely to increase into the figure, a push through the level is likely to see weak stops on a push through the 0.6980 areas and the market open to a strong move lower. Topside offers light through to the 71 cents areas with congestion through the level and likely to increase on any move through towards the 72 cents areas.
- EUR: Euros did very little much the same as the other pairs with the market slowly moving off the 1.1275 area opening lows and testing through to the 1.1285 level before drifting to the grey hours in the same tight range. Downside bids down through the 1.2770 areas with stops likely on a dip through the level and the market likely open quickly for a test through to the 1.1220 areas and better bids likely to start to appear, with strong stops possibly through the 1.1200 areas. Topside offers light back through the 1.1300 areas with weak stops on a move through the 1.1320 level and a small short squeeze through to the 1.1360 level and stronger offers likely to appear.
Overnight News
CNY/AUD:
Ferrous: Iron ore in China drops as traders assess supply impact BFW
CNY:
Debt guarantee tangle: China’s private firms hit by default contagion RTRS
Bass (Hayman Capital Management) says China is just a paper tiger – BLC
EUR:
We want to shake things up in Europe says Italian PM
NZD:
RBNZ tipped as next central bank to turn dovish as worries mount BBG
AUD:
Interest rates on hold over the horizon as business activity loses momentum AUB
Warning signs that could sway RBA on rates are flashing amber – BBG
JPY:
BoJ Cuts purchases of 10-25 year bonds first time since July BFW
GBP:
PM May to make statement to parliament today – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Jan A 2.40% | C 2.40% | P 2.40%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Home Loans M/M Dec A -6.10% | C -2.00% | P -0.90%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Jan A 4 | C 3 | P 3
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Conditions Jan A 7 | C 4 | P 2
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tertiary Industry Index M/M Dec A -0.30% | C -0.10% | P -0.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Jan (P) A -18.80% | P -18.30%
11:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NFIB Small Business Optimism Jan C 103 | P 104.4
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A quiet move through the Asian session holding around the 1.2935 level before dipping away a little to the 1.2925 areas and unable to push through the 1.2940 on any attempt higher, the move into the grey hours saw the market slip a little lower pushing through to the 1.2900 level and trading around the level through into early London, production, GDP didn’t change the market and if anything there was a minor rally moving towards the NYK session and the market again pushing towards the 1.2940 levels, early NYK saw a return to the lows and moving into the official opening saw the market quickly push through the level and drop to the 1.2875 areas hitting congestion and slowing a little on the market drifted down to the 1.2850 areas before slowly moving off the lows to hold quietly on a long run to the close.
- JPY: A slow but steady rise for the USD through the day with USDJPY moving off the opening lows around the 109.80 area and moving sideways into the Tokyo session and starting the slow move through to the 110.00 areas for the move into the grey hours, the market held around the level through into early morning in London before triggering weak stops on a pop through to the 110.25 level before drifting into the NYK session, and a rise through to the 110.40-45 level and a long drawn out move through to the close.
- AUD: As with the other currencies the USD was the mover over the day, the move through early Asia saw the market rising from the opening 0.7090 level to test through to the 0.7105 areas, the move through the Tokyo session saw the market ranging around the 71 cents level through to deep into the session before dipping back to the 0.7090 areas, grey hours buying saw the market again testing the highs however, the move into the London session saw steady selling through deep into the NYK session testing to the 0.7060 areas before holding for a long run to the close.
- EUR: Ranging quietly through the Asian session the market made its highs on the move through into the grey hours lightly testing the 1.1330 level before dropping away through to the 1.1300 level into early London, the market recovered for a move through to the 1.1320 level before moving into the NYK session and dropping quickly back to the 1.1280 areas, finally making the lows around the 1.1270 area for the move through to the close not far from those lows.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Jan A -0.30% | C -0.30% | P -0.30%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jan A 0.60% | C 0.60% | P 0.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP M/M Dec A -0.40% | C 0.00% | P 0.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q4 (P) A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.60%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Y/Y Q4 (P) A 1.30% | C 1.40% | P 1.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Total Business Investment Q/Q Q4 (P) A -1.40% | C -1.00% | P -1.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M Dec A 0.40% | C 0.40% | P 0.30% | R 0.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Dec A -12.1B | C -12.0B | P -12.0B | R -12.4B
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Dec A -0.50% | C 0.10% | P -0.40% | R -0.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Dec A -0.90% | C -0.50% | P -1.50% | R -1.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production M/M Dec A -0.70% | C 0.20% | P -0.30% | R -0.10%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production Y/Y Dec A -2.10% | C -1.10% | P -1.10% | R -1.20%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Output M/M Dec A -2.80% | C 0.10% | R 0.60%
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