Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 110.46 | EURUSD 1.1295 | AUDUSD 0.71052 | NZDUSD 0.67373 | USDCAD 1.32959 | USDCHF 1.00506 | GBPUSD 1.2800 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.12970 | 1.12827
USDJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.550 | 110.264
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.28196 | 1.27888
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00585 | 1.00487
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71071 | 0.70821
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33118 | 1.3293
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68355 | 0.68098
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13534 | 1.13467
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88287 | 0.88165
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 124.861 | 124.47
For Today
- GBP: As the week started and continued another slow day with Cable opening on its highs just above the 1.2805 level and then a small drift to hold the 1.2790 areas and moving into the grey hours just below the figure, Downside congestion through the 1.2765-50 level is likely to then thin a little until the 1.2700 areas with stronger bids into the level and strong congestion likely then to continue through to the 1.2630 area absorbing any weak stops. Topside offers light through to the 1.2850 areas with weak stops likely on a test through the level and the market likely to quickly push towards the 1.2900 area
- JPY: Weaker USD squeezes the JPY a little and slow selling from the Tokyo opening sees the USDJPY drifting through to the 110.25 from the highs around 110.55, the market then having stalled at the lows continues to range in the area through to the grey hours, light bids through to the 110.00-20 area and sentimental bids around those levels with limited potential for stops large enough to then contend with congestive bids through to the 109.50 areas, weak offers through to the 111.00 before stronger offers appear and likely to continue through to the 111.40 areas before weak stops appear and the market then opens to the 112.00 areas with the potential for stronger offers and larger stops above there.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7105 area the move into the Tokyo session saw the AUDJPY dominating the market and the Oz forced back to the 0.7080 areas before bouncing a little and holding the 0.7090 areas through to the grey hours, downside congestion into the 0.7040 levels with likely sentimental bids the line in the sand around the 0.7000 area, possible strong stops on a move through the level opens up a deeper move with sentimental values protecting the downside, topside offers light back through the 71 cents levels and lightly congested through to the 72 cents area however, as the market moves towards that level the offers are likely to increase and weak stops on a move through the 0.7220 level are possibly limited.
- EUR: Opening just below the 1.1300 level the market held steady into the Tokyo session before starting a slow drift through to the 1.1285 areas and a long quiet run to the grey hours, Downside bids down through the 1.1250 areas with stops likely on a dip through the level and the market likely open quickly for a test through to the 1.1220 areas and better bids likely to start to appear, with strong stops possibly through the 1.1200 areas. Topside offers light through to the 1.1350 area with congestive offers then increasing on any move towards the 1.1400 level with weak stops a possibility on a move through the level and then a return to weak congestion for a good distance.
Overnight News
CNY:
Xi’s global investment program faces domestic criticism amid economic and fiscal worries Nikkei
USD/CNY:
US stealth jets train for high end combat in Pacific, as a furious China flaunts carrier killer missiles BDR
US-China trade teams said to be far apart on reform demands – BBG
USD/EUR:
Trump loads the gun for car tariffs against Europe, invoking National Security Telegraph
GBP:
UK Parliament throws out May’s plan to renegotiate Brexit BBG
AUD:
RBA’s Kent: Recent AUD depreciation is helpful at the margin
Kent: Not so surprising that as AUD has depreciated a little
Kent: Higher commodity prices have limited extent of AUD decline
Kent: Expects strong growth in non-bank lending to continue
SAR/OIL:
Saudi’s halt output at world’s largest offshore oil field – EIG
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI Jan A 53.1 | P 55.1 | R 54.8
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jan A 1.70% | P 1.90%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Jan A 0.10% | P 0.90%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Dec (F) A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel M/M Jan C 0.20% | P -1.30%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel Y/Y Jan C 3.10% | P 2.60%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel M/M Jan C 0.20% | P -0.90%
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel Y/Y Jan C 3.40% | P 3.00%
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Dec C 16.4B | P 15.1B
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Securities Transactions (CAD) Dec P 9.45B
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Empire State Manufacturing Feb C 7.6 | P 3.9
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index M/M Jan C -0.10% | P -1.00%
14:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Jan C 0.10% | P 0.30%
14:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization Jan C 78.70% | P 78.70%
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Mich. Sentiment Feb (P) C 93.9 | P 91.2
21:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Long-term TIC Flows Dec P 37.6B
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Another day another vote and the same result, this leaves a no deal open and time running out, opening around the 1.2850 level the market rose slowly through the Asian session pushing through into the grey hours testing the 1.2875 level before moving into the early London traders selling the market quickly through to the 1.2815 areas, before bouncing a little and then holding steady into the NYK session where early sellers mirrored London and the market quickly testing to the 1.2800 areas and eventually breaking to the 1.2775 areas and the lows of the day, a steady rise back to the figure and slow sideways move to the close.
- JPY: USDJPY drifted into the Tokyo session and tested through to the 110.85 level in limited supply for the fix, a slow rise through the session saw a spike to above the 111.10 areas before ranging around the 111.05 through London and into early NYK, a very sick looking retail sales number saw the market quickly drop back to the 110.50 level with a limited bounce before starting a sedate move lower through the balance of the session to finish the day around the 110.50 areas.
- AUD: Limited day with reportedly funds on either side driving the market, opening around the 0.7090 areas the market moved steadily higher once the market moved into the Tokyo session pushing through the 71 cents level eventually and testing through to the 0.7130 into the grey hours before London entered the market and dropped it quickly back to the opening levels, the move through London into the NYK session saw the market holding quietly into the 0.7100-10 areas with early NYK taking it above the 0.7120 level after the US retail sales number before dropping quickly back as margins became squeezed on the JPY and AUDJPY therefore followed dipping into the low 0.7070 area before bouncing back to the opening level and then once London left for the day rising slowly to hold above the 71 cents level to the close.
- EUR: A little bit more choppy through the day than we’ve seen all week, opening around the 1.1260 level the market saw quick sellers to push the market to the 1.1250 area and the lows for the day, the market slowly recovered as the market moved through into the Tokyo session pushing to the 1.1280 area in midsession then ranging around the level through to the grey hours, a weaker German GDP number was the first disappointment and the market dipped and jumped with a quick 20 pip move, London opened and the Euro was quickly testing the 1.2850 level again and as with the first time a long drawn out rally to the 1.1280 areas, a slow drift into the NYK session saw the Euro leap quickly through to the 1.1310 areas on the poor retail sale numbers holding briefly before dropping back quickly to the 1.1270 area and the same slow rise through the session to finish the day just short of the 1.1300 areas.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q4 (P) A 0.30% | C 0.40% | P -0.60%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Deflator Y/Y Q4 (P) A -0.30% | C -0.40% | P -0.30%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Feb A 3.70% | P 3.50%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Jan A -22.00% | C -20.00% | P -19.00%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (USD) Jan A 39.2B | C 32.0B | P 57.1B
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CNY) Jan A 271B | C 235B | P 395B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GDP Q/Q Q4 (P) A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P -0.20%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices M/M Jan A -0.70% | C -0.40% | P -0.60%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Jan A -0.50% | C -0.20% | P 0.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q4 (P) A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Employment Q/Q Q4 (P) A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Sales M/M Dec A -1.30% | C 0.70% | P -1.40% | R -1.70%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M Dec A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 09) A 239K | C 225K | P 234K | R 235K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M Jan A -0.10% | C 0.10% | P -0.20% | R -0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Jan A 2.00% | C 2.10% | P 2.50%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core M/M Jan A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P -0.10% | R 0.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y Jan A 2.60% | C 2.50% | P 2.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Advance M/M Dec A -1.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.20% | R 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Dec A -1.80% | C 0.00% | P 0.20% | R 0.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories Nov A -0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.60%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A -78B | C -79B | P -237B
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