Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 110.613 | EURUSD 1.13106 | AUDUSD 0.71295 | NZDUSD 0.6846 | USDCAD 1.32396 | USDCHF 1.00425 | GBPUSD 1.29248|

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.13136 | 1.12931

USDJPY                 110.700 | 110.454

GBPUSD               1.29288 | 1.28964

USDCHF               1.00562 | 1.00413

AUDUSD              0.71452 | 0.71057

USDCAD               1.32628 | 1.32336

NZDUSD               0.68711 | 0.68274

EURCHF                1.13639 | 1.13555

EURGBP               0.87603 | 0.87504

EURJPY                 125.145 | 124.77

For Today

  • GBP: A slow drift back to the 1.2900 in very limited volume for the Cable with UK MP’s now starting to understand the anger they’ve created with one group of Labour MP’s resigning to set up an independent group and talk of cross party MP’s possibly joining, initial commentary was of differing opinions on other matters however, reading between the lines of some and links to conservative MP’s would suggest remainer MP’s splitting away to cause further disruption, Topside 1.2920 areas and then stronger congestion as the market moves into the 1.2950 areas and likely to increase on any move towards the 1.2980-1.3000 level, while the offers maybe a little stronger a strong push will likely clear them for a move through to the 1.3040-60 areas where stronger congestion awaits and likely to then continue  and increase on any further pushes, downside bids light through to the 1.2840 level with some weak congestive bids along the way and stronger bids likely to appear on a move through to the 1.2800 areas with those bids likely to extend to the 1.2750 area.
  • JPY: Kuroda comments eventually turned the market from the slow slide lower through early trading, opening around the 110.60 levels the market drifted through to the 110.45 level to make the lows holding quietly until the comments and then rising quickly to test to the 110.70 areas before drifting into the grey hours testing back to the opening levels. light bids through to the 110.00-20 area and sentimental bids around those levels with limited potential for stops large enough to then contend with congestive bids through to the 109.50 areas, weak offers through to the 111.00 before stronger offers appear and likely to continue through to the 111.40 areas before weak stops appear and the market then opens to the 112.00 areas with the potential for stronger offers and larger stops above there.
  • AUD: Overall a quiet session for the AUD with the market making the highs once the RBA minutes were released with the early comments coming just before the poll that suggests a possible rate cut along the way, so having hit the 0.7145 levels the market dropped back quickly to push through the 0.7120 level and then drifted to the grey hours testing the 0.7110 area and a slight rise. Downside congestion through the 71 cents level likely to be light but increasing as the market moves towards the 0.7060 areas with stronger bids then likely to appear on any test through the 0.7050 level through to the 70 cents level, possibility of strong stops on any break through the 0.6980 levels with sentimental bids likely to slow any moves beyond the 69 cents. Topside offers increase the closer the market moves to the 0.7180-0.7200 areas with weak stops possibly on a move through the 0.7220 cent level and the market quickly opening to the 0.7260 areas and stronger offers from there to 73 cents.
  • EUR: Opening around the 1.1310 areas the market drifted through the session falling back through the 1.1300 level to test the 1.1295 areas and rising only slightly for the move into the grey hours, Downside bids down through the 1.1250 areas with stops likely on a dip through the level and the market likely open quickly for a test through to the 1.1220 areas and better bids likely to start to appear, with strong stops possibly through the 1.1200 areas. Topside offers light through to the 1.1350 area with congestive offers then increasing on any move towards the 1.1400 level with weak stops a possibility on a move through the level and then a return to weak congestion for a good distance.

 

Overnight News

JPY:

BoJ Gov. Kuroda: BoJ’s ETF buying helped moderate late last year’s stock market volatility

Kuroda: Will continue to closely watch policy impact on markets

Kuroda: Fed has been giving slightly more cautious comments

Kuroda: Expect that’s reflection of US prices, China slowdown

Kuroda: BoJ policy doesn’t have currency manipulation as target

Kuroda: Will consider extra easing to hit price target if needed

Kuroda: Could lower yields, buy more assets

Kuroda: There are still many options left for policy

Kuroda: But will consider carefully policy benefits and costs

Kuroda: May consider easing if Yen moves impact econ, prices

Kuroda: True that BoJ ETF purchases have impacted markets

Kuroda: No intention of stopping ETF purchasing right now

GBP:

Theresa May sets course for Brexit disaster Politico

AUD:

Bill shorten steps up pressure to legislate banking Royal commission change

Australian cash rate seen lower for longer as more banks predict cuts RTRS

Reuters poll: Median of 28 economists predict stable policy at 1.50% through early 2021

Poll: 10 of 37 economists including UBS, AMP and Saxo bank see at least one cut by end of 2020 vs. 7 in previous poll

USD/EUR:

I like tariffs, Trump threatens transatlantic trade war HBT

AUD/CNY:

Chinese traders halt Australian coal orders as customs delays pile up – RTRS

 

 

 

 

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

AUD       RBA Minutes Feb

07:00     CHF        Trade Balance (CHF) Jan C 2.24B | P 1.90B

09:00     EUR        Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Dec C 30.9B | P 20.3B

09:30     GBP       Jobless Claims Change Jan C 12.3K | P 20.8K

09:30     GBP       Claimant Count Rate Jan P 2.80%

09:30     GBP       ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Dec C 4.00% | P 4.00%

09:30     GBP       Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Dec C 3.50% | P 3.40%

09:30     GBP       Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/Y Dec C 3.40% | P 3.30%

10:00     EUR        German ZEW Economic Sentiment Feb C -13.7 | P -15

10:00     EUR        German ZEW Current Situation Feb C 21 | P 27.6

10:00     EUR        Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Feb P -20.9

15:00     USD       NAHB Housing Market Index Feb C 59 | P 58

 

Harry Hindsight

  • GBP: As you’d expect for a US bank holiday a very quiet range through the day, opening just above the 1.2900 levels the market slowly rose through the Asian session to the 1.2920 level and then drifted into London, a minor dip from the opening to make the low for the day around the 1.2890 areas before starting another slow move higher through to the 1.2940 level and a slow range through to the close ranging for the most part around the 1.2925 level.
  • JPY: Opening around the 110.45 levels the market moved higher through to the Tokyo opening to push towards the 110.55 level before settling back again in a quick move and slowly moving back to range around the 110.55 level through to the grey hours, early London took the market slightly above the 110.60 area ranging tightly through to the close around that level.
  • AUD: Moving up from a slightly lower opening the market tested from the 0.7135 levels to push the 0.7150 area into the Tokyo session and continued slowly through to the 0.7160 areas before drifting through into late London before testing finally through that high, the market moved deeper into the session and reversed the gains and dropped steadily through to the 0.7130 level into the London close before holding steady around that level to the close for the day.
  • EUR: Euro’s saw early bids from the Tokyo opening moving of the day’s lows around the 1.1290 areas testing through to the 1.1320 level before drifting through to the London opening, early sellers in London saw the market testing towards the opening level before steadily recovering with Tariffs and Brexit the only impetus on a very limited day. The market slowly made its highs around the 1.1330 area before holding the 1.1310 areas through to the close of the day.

 

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

Machine Orders M/M Dec A -0.10% | C -1.10% | P 0.00%

Rightmove House Prices M/M Feb A 0.70% | P 0.40%

 

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.