Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 110.626 | EURUSD 1.13413 | AUDUSD 0.71651 | NZDUSD 0.68806 | USDCAD 1.3212 | USDCHF 1.00123 | GBPUSD 1.30632 |

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.13561 | 1.13346

USDJPY                 110.934 | 110.541

GBPUSD               1.30765 | 1.30518

USDCHF               1.00171 | 1.00063

AUDUSD              0.71765 | 0.71512

USDCAD               1.32194 | 1.31843

NZDUSD               0.68869 | 0.68749

EURCHF                1.13646 | 1.1352

EURGBP               0.86914 | 0.86792

EURJPY                 125.933 | 125.36

For Today

  • GBP: A quiet range for the Cable above the 1.3050 areas with the market making one minor push through to the 1.3075 levels before drifting back to the 1.3055 area for a quiet move to the grey hours, Topside offers through to the 1.3100 level with limited congestion through the figure and some weak stops likely through the level and the market open a little through to the 1.3150-60 areas where the market starts to increase on any move through to the 1.3200-20 areas with likely stronger stops on a break through that level, downside bids light through to the 1.2950 level with limited congestion and weak stops likely to appear on a move through to the 1.2900 congestive areas.
  • JPY: USDJPY opened quietly and initially held around the 110.60 areas slipping a little to test into the low 110.50’s before moving into the Tokyo session and running steadily through to the 110.90 level before finding topside resistance to the move and drifting back a little then a little stab to the low 110.70’s as early buyers cut out with meagre gains, the market managed to move to the 110.80 levels and held through to the grey hours, topside offers through to the 111.20 areas a strong push through the level could see weak stops joined by breakout moves and the market quickly testing through to the 111.50 areas before congestive offers reappear, however, the market could see a move through those levels and test towards the 111.80 levels and stronger offers appearing. Downside bids light through to the 110.00 areas with stronger bids around the level and likely to remain congestive through the level with weak stops possibly being absorbed, with stronger bids then returning on any move through the 109.60 levels.
  • AUD: A little movement in the Oz with the market opening around the 0.7165 areas and testing to the 0.7170 level into the Tokyo opening before dropping quickly back to the 0.7150 area with relationships between China and Australia deteriorating after the Huawei block and recently coal exports to China stopped. The market slowly recovered through to the 0.7175 levels to make the highs before drifting back through to the grey hours around the 0.7160 areas. Weak bids through the 0.7100 levels with congestion then continuing through to the 0.7050 area and possibly stronger bids continuing through to the 70 cents areas, stronger stops on a dip through the level with congestion around each sentimental level.
  • EUR: Similar movement for the Euro with a slow move through to the 1.1355 level before slowly drifting back through to the opening levels testing the 1.1340 areas to hold to the grey hours, topside congestion through to the 1.1400 areas with stronger offers likely to appear on any move to the 1.1380-1.1420 areas before weak stops appear, however, even through that level the congestion is likely to continue through to the 1.1450 levels with increasing offers thereafter through to any approach to the 1.1500 level. downside bids light through to the 1.1250 areas and likely to find stronger bids through to the 1.1200 levels, strong stops likely on a move through the level with the market opening slightly to the 1.1150 area.

 

Overnight News

USD/CNY:

Offshore Yuan jumps after US said to seek currency stability

Hassett: Much progress still needed in China trade talks

USD:

Hassett: US to have another 3% year in 2019

Hassett: Has hard time seeing recession developing in 2019

Hassett: Mnuchin deserves gold star for revising withholdings

Hassett: Tax cut hasn’t paid for itself yet, will with growth

US student loan delinquencies hit record last quarter – BBG

EUR/GBP:

May aims for significant meeting with Juncker BBG

EUR/USD:

In rebuke to US, Germany considers letting Huawei in WSJ

CNY:

Chinese companies stung as USD fundraising costs soar Nikkei

China’s central bank conducts first Central Bank Bills Swap – CTX

CNY/AUD:

China delays approval of Australia coal imports as tensions brew BBG

AUD:

RBA’s Consumer spending fears pop up at Supermarket checkouts BBG

Australian 4Q wage price index rises 0.5% QoQ est. 0.6%

JPY:

Japan Jan. exports -8.4% YoY est. -5.7% – BFW

SEK:

Swedish broadcaster SVT links Swedbank to Danske scandal SVT

Swedbank may have been involved in money laundering – SVT

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

NZD       PPI Output Q/Q Q4 A 0.80% | C 1.10% | P 1.50%

NZD       PPI Input Q/Q Q4 A 1.60% | C 1.00% | P 1.40%

AUD       Westpac Leading Index M/M Jan A 0.00% | P -0.21% | R -0.30%

JPY         Trade Balance (JPY) Jan A -0.37T | C 0.17T | P -0.18T | R -0.22T

AUD       Wage Price Index Q/Q Q4 A 0.50% | C 0.60% | P 0.60%

07:00     EUR        German PPI M/M Jan C -0.10% | P -0.40%

07:00     EUR        German PPI Y/Y Jan C 2.20% | P 2.70%

15:00     EUR        Eurozone Consumer Confidence Feb (A) C -7.7 | P -7.9

19:00     USD       FOMC Minutes

 

Harry Hindsight

  • GBP: A quiet Asian session with the market drifting off from the opening around the 1.2920 areas and dipping away through to hold around the 1.2900 level through to the grey hours, early London slowly took the market through into the London opening pushing the 1.2935 areas before again drifting through to the NYK session, NYK lost no time buying the market with the PM May/Juncker meeting today as an early indication of nothing really, but hope springs eternal, the market paused at each sentimental level initially 1.2950 area then 1.3000 and continuing through to the 1.3050 areas before running into sterner offers and slowing on its move through the market did push through to the 1.3075 levels and drifting through to the close.
  • JPY: A slow drift through the early part of Asia falling back through to the 110.45 area and holding through to deeper into the session before popping quickly higher to the 110.70 levels, Kuroda comments seemed to trigger the run and the market remained into the grey hours between the 110.60-70 areas into the London session before running higher again this time taking the market through to the 110.80 in a long drawn out rally through to the NYK session, NYK were USD sellers after a long weekend and the market dipped back through to the opening levels before entering a 110.55-70 range to the close.
  • AUD: A slow drift after the release of the RBA minutes rising sharply through to the 0.7140 level before dropping just as quickly off through the 0.7120 areas and a slow drift through to the 0.7110 areas and a quiet range through to the grey hours, limited buying through the grey hours before dipping back to the lows and drifting to the 0.7105 area into the NYK session, NYK were steady USD sellers and the market moved through to the 0.7150 areas and triggered some minor stops on a run to the 0.7170 areas before drifting to the close.
  • EUR: A very similar pattern to the rest of the market against the USD with a gradual drift through the Asian session leaving the Euro just below the 1.1300 level from the opening 1.1310 areas, the move into the grey hours saw the market move ahead a little after the current account number for the Eurozone, the market topped out around the 1.1325 on the run and then drifted a little with early NYK pushing the Euro towards weak stops only to touch the supportive 1.1275 level and the move into the NYK session, NYK were steady buyer with the market pushing steadily through to the 1.1340 level before pausing and then running for a second move breaking just above the 1.1355 level before drifting through to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

AUD       RBA Minutes Feb

CHF        Trade Balance (CHF) Jan A 3.04B | C 2.24B | P 1.90B

EUR        Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Dec A 16.2B | C 30.9B | P 20.3B | R 22.6B

GBP       Jobless Claims Change Jan A 14.2K | C 12.3K | P 20.8K

GBP       Claimant Count Rate Jan A 2.80% | P 2.80%

GBP       ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Dec A 4.00% | C 4.00% | P 4.00%

GBP       Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y Dec A 3.40% | C 3.50% | P 3.40%

GBP       Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/Y Dec A 3.40% | C 3.40% | P 3.30%

EUR        German ZEW Economic Sentiment Feb A -13.4 | C -13.7 | P -15

EUR        German ZEW Current Situation Feb A 15 | C 21 | P 27.6

EUR        Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Feb A -16.6 | C -18.2 | P -20.9

USD       NAHB Housing Market Index Feb A 62 | C 59 | P 58

 

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.