Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 110.687 | EURUSD 1.13321 | AUDUSD 0.71282| NZDUSD 0.68473 | USDCAD 1.31354 | USDCHF 1.00049 | GBPUSD 1.3056 |

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.13494 | 1.13283

USDJPY                 110.860 | 110.586

GBPUSD               1.30763 | 1.30508

USDCHF               1.00129 | 0.99896

AUDUSD              0.71614 | 0.71344

USDCAD               1.31449 | 1.31258

NZDUSD               0.68831 | 0.6855

EURCHF                1.13451 | 1.13173

EURGBP               0.86909 | 0.86675

EURJPY                 125.786 | 125.304

For Today

  • GBP: Choppy start to the session with the market spiking through to the 1.3075 level before settling down to a slow rise through to the 1.3070 and holding quietly through to the grey hours, Topside offers through to the 1.3100 level with limited congestion through the figure and some weak stops likely through the level and the market open a little through to the 1.3150-60 areas where the market starts to increase on any move through to the 1.3200-20 areas with likely stronger stops on a break through that level, downside bids light through to the 1.2950 level with limited congestion and weak stops likely to appear on a move through to the 1.2900 congestive areas.
  • JPY: Opening around the 110.70 areas the market rose through to the 110.85 level into early Tokyo before dropping back quickly again and dipping through to the 110.60 areas before rising a little for the move into the grey hours, in very quiet session, , topside offers through to the 111.20 areas a strong push through the level could see weak stops joined by breakout moves and the market quickly testing through to the 111.50 areas before congestive offers reappear, however, the market could see a move through those levels and test towards the 111.80 levels and stronger offers appearing. Downside bids light through to the 110.00 areas with stronger bids around the level and likely to remain congestive through the level with weak stops possibly being absorbed, with stronger bids then returning on any move through the 109.60 levels.
  • AUD: Opening a little stronger the market edged from the opening 0.7135 level through to the 0.7160 area and held through into mid-morning in Tokyo before dropping back off and an attempt to fill the small gap holding the opening levels the market then pushed through to the 0.7150 areas for the grey hours, downside bids into the 0.7080-60 level with some weak stops expected in that area however, any push through the 0.7050 level is likely to find some sellers reappearing in the market and the 70 cents level quickly under pressure, a break below is likely to see a mixture of stops and sentimental bids through to the 0.6950 areas however, those levels are likely to be weak and a lot of room to the downside is likely to open. Topside offers likely to be weak and a test back through the 0.7100-20 area could see a short squeeze appearing but less likely than yesterday a quick test towards 0.7160 areas.
  • EUR: As with the other currencies moving off the early 1.1330 lows the market rose through into the early part of the session testing towards the 1.1350 areas before drifting through to the grey hours holding the 1.1340 levels, topside congestion through to the 1.1400 areas with stronger offers likely to appear on any move to the 1.1380-1.1420 areas before weak stops appear, however, even through that level the congestion is likely to continue through to the 1.1450 levels with increasing offers thereafter through to any approach to the 1.1500 level. downside bids light through to the 1.1250 areas and likely to find stronger bids through to the 1.1200 levels, strong stops likely on a move through the level with the market opening slightly to the 1.1150 area.

 

Overnight News

JPY:

BoJ begins to sweat as Japan’s real estate heats up Nikkei

BoJ has 4 options for more easing, Kuroda tells Asahi BBG

AUD:

Sydney property values plunge 13% with worse to come

NZD:

Higher capital in NZ could trigger $8.1B raisings AFR

WORLD:

It may already be too late to avert global recession, with dire consequences for Europe

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

21:45     NZD       Retail Sales Ex Inflation Q/Q Q4 A 1.70% | C 0.50% | P 0.00% | R 0.30%

21:45     NZD       Retail Sales Core Q/Q Q4 A 2.00% | C 0.80% | P 0.40% | R 0.70%

23:50     JPY         Corporate Service Price Y/Y Jan A 1.10% | C 1.10% | P 1.10%

15:00     USD       Wholesale Inventories M/M Dec (P) C 0.30% | P 0.30%

 

Weekend News

CNY:

Surprise China debt default upends assumptions on official aid BBG

China deleveraging is dead as $34T debt habit roars back BBG

China’s borrows have an 890B USD problem BBG

Treasury prepares for debt limit’s return; RRP usage rises

USD/CNY:

Trump vents frustration with trade Czar as China talks continue BBG

Trump says assuming additional progress, will plan summit with Xi at Mar-a-Lago – RTRS

GBP:

May raises the stakes before Brexit showdown as EU hatches plot

Brexit to be delayed for two months under plans mulled – Telegraph

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

JPY         National CPI Core Y/Y Jan A 0.80% | C 0.80% | P 0.70%

07:00     EUR        German GDP Q/Q Q4 (F) A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%

09:00     EUR        German IFO Business Climate Feb A 98.5 | C 98.9 | P 99.1 | R 99.3

09:00     EUR        German IFO Expectations Feb A 93.8 | C 94.2 | P 94.2

09:00     EUR        German IFO Current Assessment Feb A 103.4 | C 103.9 | P 104.3

10:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Jan (F) A 1.10% | C 1.10% | P 1.10% | R 0.90%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI M/M Jan A -1.00% | C -1.10% | P 0.00%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jan (F) A 1.40% | C 1.40% | P 1.60% | R 1.50%

13:30     CAD       Retail Sales M/M Dec A -0.10% | C -0.30% | P -0.90%

13:30     CAD       Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Dec A -0.50% | C -0.30% | P -0.60% | R -0.70%

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.