Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 110.995 | EURUSD 1.13694 | AUDUSD 0.71401 | NZDUSD 0.68393 | USDCAD 1.3156 | USDCHF 1.00149 | GBPUSD 1.33095 |

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.13802 | 1.13677

USDJPY                 110.995 | 110.80

GBPUSD               1.33287 | 1.3296

USDCHF               1.00153 | 0.9986

AUDUSD              0.71667 | 0.7130

USDCAD               1.31592 | 1.31407

NZDUSD               0.68556 | 0.66331

EURCHF                1.13870 | 1.13604

EURGBP               0.85568 | 0.85418

EURJPY                 126.238 | 126.051

For Today

  • GBP: Another quiet session with the Cable drifting a little from the early highs just above the 1.3320 area and falling back to just below the 1.3300 areas and holding through to the grey hours, topside offers into the 1.3350 areas with some light congestion then continuing through to the 1.3400 areas and likely to increase on any push towards the 1.3450 levels, downside bids tentatively nervous through to the 1.3300 level with weak stops on a move through the level and possible weakness then reappearing quickly and sentimental levels seeing limited bids through to the 1.3150 level and the market likely to be in full flight and 1.3000 the stronger level.
  • JPY: A very weak range for the day with the market dropping from the opening levels to then range around the 110.90 level and dipping into the grey hours holding the 110.80 area, downside bids a little congestion through to strong support into the 110.00 areas, a dip through the level is likely to see congestion continuing through to the 109.80 level with weak stops possible through to the 109.60 area where the congestive bids are likely to reappear, topside offers through to the 111.20 levels and while there may be weak stops in the area the market is likely to continue to be congestive through the area and increasing on any test to the 111.80 level and stronger offers into the level.
  • AUD: Opening around the 0.7140 level the market edged higher through into the Tokyo session and a quick stab higher with better expenditure numbers to the 0.7165 areas before dropping back again to test the 0.7130 in the same manner, the market then stabilized and held around the 0.7140-50 areas through to the grey hours, Topside offers into the 0.7220 with weak stops through the level and limited congestion increasing on a move through to the 0.7260 levels and stronger offers to the 73 cents level, downside bids lightly congestive through to the 71 cents area and then stronger bids on any dip through the level to 0.7080 area and increasing into the 0.7050.
  • EUR: Moving off the 1.1370 areas and pushing towards the 1.1380 areas for the move into the Tokyo session, the market held just below the highs until the Tokyo fix before dipping back to the opening levels and that defined the range for the session holding in mid-range through to the grey hours, topside congestion through to the 1.1400 areas with stronger offers likely to appear on any move to the 1.1380-1.1420 areas before weak stops appear, however, even through that level the congestion is likely to continue through to the 1.1450 levels with increasing offers thereafter through to any approach to the 1.1500 level. downside bids light through to the 1.1250 areas and likely to find stronger bids through to the 1.1200 levels, strong stops likely on a move through the level with the market opening slightly to the 1.1150 area.

 

Overnight News

GBP:

Parliament backs May’s pledge on no deal

Jacob Rees-Mogg: Why I would be delighted to back PM May, and all it takes is the tiniest of tweaks to the Irish backstop Daily Mail

Tory revolt over May’s Brexit delay offer Irish examiner

USD:

Treasuries tumble as wave of corporate debt pushes yields higher BBG

Trump’s trade czar urges patience on China deal the President craves BBG

USD/CNY:

Lighthizer: China knows tech will determine who rules future

Lighthizer: No plan to submit China deal to congress

Lighthizer: Agrees deal not worth having w/o structural changes

Lighthizer: Wants trilateral meeting with Japan on China

Lighthizer: We are negotiating currency manipulation with China

Lighthizer: I think we will have an enforceable trade deal

Lighthizer: Currency agreement with China will be enforceable how?

Lighthizer: Will formally announce truce extension coming days

Lighthizer: Aim is agreement not to do competitive devaluations

Lighthizer: US at bit of a stalemate with Europe right now

Lighthizer: China purchases would have target, last several years

Lighthizer: Trump wants deal with Canada, Mexico on steel

CNY:

There’s no money right now, China building boom runs into a Great Wall WSJ

China’s factory downturn deepens as New Year shutdown bites – BBG

ASIA:

Asian central bank risk overfilling punchbowl Nikkei

JPY:

Has monetary easing really run its course Koichi Hamada PS

AUD:

Chance of recession in Australia increases to 23% – BBG

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

JPY         Industrial Production M/M Jan (P) A -3.70% | C -2.50% | P -0.10%

JPY         Retail Trade Y/Y Jan A 0.60% | C 1.50% | P 1.30%

NZD       ANZ Business Confidence Feb A -30.9 | P -24.1

GBP       GfK Consumer Confidence Feb A -13 | C -15 | P -14

AUD       Private Capital Expenditure Q4 A 2.00% | C 1.00% | P -0.50% | R 0.00%

AUD       Private Sector Credit M/M Jan A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.20%

CNY        Manufacturing PMI Feb A 49.2 | C 49.5 | P 49.5

CNY        Non-manufacturing PMI Feb A 54.3 | C 54.5 | P 54.7

JPY         Housing Starts Y/Y Jan A 1.10% | C 10.30% | P 2.10%

06:45     CHF        GDP Q/Q Q4 C 0.40% | P -0.20%

07:00     EUR        German Import Price Index M/M Jan C 0.20% | P -1.30%

07:45     EUR        French GDP Q/Q Q4 (P) C 0.30% | P 0.30%

08:00     CHF        KOF Leading Indicator Feb C 96 | P 95

13:00     EUR        German CPI M/M Feb (P) C 0.50% | P -0.80%

13:00     EUR        German CPI Y/Y Feb (P) C 1.50% | P 1.40%

13:30     CAD       Current Account Balance Q4 C -$14.01B | P -$10.34B

13:30     CAD       Industrial Product Price M/M Jan C 0.30% | P -0.70%

13:30     CAD       Raw Materials Price Index M/M Jan C 4.10% | P 3.80%

13:30     USD       Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 23) C 221K | P 216K

13:30     USD       GDP Annualized Q/Q Q4 (A) C 2.50% | P 3.40%

13:30     USD       GDP Price Index Q4 (A) C 1.70% | P 1.80%

14:45     USD       Chicago PMI Feb C 57.8 | P 56.7

15:30     USD       Natural Gas Storage C -177B

 

Harry Hindsight

  • GBP: A slow drift from the Tokyo opening with the market slipping from the 1.3260 levels through to the early part of the grey hours testing into the 1.3230’s before early London stepped in, rising steadily through to the 1.3280 levels and holding for a brief period before again starting a steady rise as optimism moves through the market however, it all could be a false dawn as either side of the equation moves forward with no clear understanding of what is required and whether either side will allow that to happen anyway, the market continued the rise through into the NYK session ranging through the session in the 1.3320 area with a brief move into the 1.3330 levels then testing through to the 1.3350 level on good volume before drifting off to hold around the 1.3300-10 level through to the close.
  • JPY: USDJPY eased through the Asian session holding for the most part in the 110.50-60 level testing only to the 110.62 level before heading into the grey hours slipping steadily through to just below the 110.40 level to make the lows around the 110.36 area, London slowly started buying and the move through to the NYK saw the session rising back to the opening levels and continuing through the level from the NYK opening and pushing slowly but steadily through the session to the 111.08 area before drifting a little into the close.
  • AUD: Early buying saw the market highs around the 0.7198 and another failure of the 72 cents level before dropping back again on the move into the Tokyo session, the market settled into a slow range around the 0.7180 area and a slow rise to the 0.7190 area for the move into the grey hours, a slight dip before London moved in and then a slow drift through to early NYK to the 0.7165 area and then dropping off to the 0.7150 areas again holding steady briefly and then dipping through to make the lows just through the 0.7130 level and ranging to the close around the 0.7140 with light trading through the day.
  • EUR: Early trading saw the Euro test to the 1.1395 area for the first run of the day in early Tokyo, failing the level the market drifted through to the grey hours falling slowly back to the 1.1370 levels before rising through the grey hours to push through to the 1.1404 area with plenty of two way trading as the Euro was swept along with the rise in Cable, however, mixed Eurozone numbers saw the market testing back to the 1.1380 level for the move into NYK, a little bit of choppy trading through to the London close saw a wider range and the market making new lows however, once London left the office the Euro dropped back quickly and the market tested into the 1.1360 areas to make the low before holding quietly through to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

NZD       Trade Balance Jan A -914M | C -300M | P 264M | R 12M

GBP       BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Feb A 0.70% | C 0.30% | P 0.40%

AUD       Construction Work Done Q4 A -3.10% | C 0.50% | P -2.80% | R -3.60%

EUR        Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Jan A 3.80% | C 4.00% | P 4.10%

EUR        Eurozone Business Climate Feb A 0.69 | C 0.67 | P 0.69

EUR        Eurozone Economic Confidence Feb A 106.1 | C 106 | P 106.2 | R 106.3

EUR        Eurozone Industrial Confidence Feb A -0.4 | C 0.1 | P 0.5 | R 0.6

EUR        Eurozone Services Confidence Feb A 12.1 | C 11 | P 11

EUR        Eurozone Consumer Confidence Feb (F) A -7.4 | C -7.4 | P -7.4

CAD       CPI M/M Jan A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P -0.10%

CAD       CPI Y/Y Jan A 1.40% | C 1.40% | R 2.00%

CAD       CPI Core-Common Y/Y Jan A 1.90% | C 1.90% | P 1.90%

CAD       CPI Core-Median Y/Y Jan A 1.80% | C 1.80% | P 1.80%

CAD       CPI Core-Trim Y/Y Jan A 1.90% | C 1.90% | P 1.90%

USD       Advance Goods Trade Balance (USD) Dec A -79.5B | C -75.3B | P -71.6B

USD       Wholesale Inventories M/M Dec (F) A 1.10% | C 0.40% | P 0.30%

USD       Fed Powell testifies Before House Panel

USD       Pending Home Sales M/M Jan A 4.60% | C 0.80% | P -2.20% | R -2.30%

USD       Factory Orders Dec A 0.10% | C 0.80% | P -0.60% | R -0.50%

USD       Crude Oil Inventories A -8.6M | C 2.8M | P 3.7M

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

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LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.