Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 111.929 | EURUSD 1.13652 | AUDUSD 0.70804 | NZDUSD 0.67979 | USDCAD 1.32986 | USDCHF 0.99907 | GBPUSD 1.32078 |

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.13810 | 1.13754

USDJPY                 111.964 | 111.764

GBPUSD               1.32520 | 1.32301

USDCHF               0.99912 | 0.99797

AUDUSD              0.71121 | 0.70948

USDCAD               1.32827 | 1.32746

NZDUSD               0.68272 | 0.68171

EURCHF                1.13643 | 1.13526

EURGBP               0.86005 | 0.85873

EURJPY                 127.370 | 127.165

For Today

  • GBP: Slow tight range after opening a little higher drifting from the 1.3245 level and holding the 1.3230 areas through to the grey hours and never really being able to push back above the 1.3240 area, Topside offers weak through to the 1.3300 level with possible light offers through the level and increasing on any push for the 1.3350 level and possibly stronger congestion beyond, downside bids light through to the 1.3220 levels with some bids then appearing through to the 1.3200 levels, weak stops on a move through the area will see minor buying through to the 1.3150 level and stronger congestion then appearing.
  • JPY: USDJPY opened a little lower, dipping from the opening to make the lows into the 111.75 area before forcing slowly higher to lightly test the 112.00 level and holding just short of the area through to the grey hours, topside offers into the 112.20 areas with light congestion likely with limited congestion continuing higher and that stronger congestion then continuing through the 112.50 areas. Downside bids light back through the 111.00 levels with stronger congestion into the 110.80 levels and likely to continue deep into the 110.40 before weakness appears, weak stops on a move through and limited congestion into the 110.00 level.
  • AUD: A little bit more movement of the Oz, with the market opening just short of the 0.7110 levels and ranging around the 71 cents level through into the Tokyo, media comments sent the market down through to make the lows for the day around the 0.7080 area and the market then struggled for a period before pushing back to the 71 cents level and a slow drift into the grey hours, topside offers limited through to the 0.7120 level and some congestive come sentimental offers in the area before weak offers through to the 0.7150 level and stronger congestion likely to start appearing on any move through to the 0.7200 levels, downside bids light through to the 0.7050 area before stronger congestion starts to appear and continuing through to the 70 cents levels.
  • EUR: A very slow drift through the session opening higher with the pull of Cable before testing lightly to the 1.1380 level and drifting through to the grey hours holding quietly just above the 1.1360 area, topside congestion reappears through to the 1.1440 areas with stronger offers likely to through to the 1.1460 level, however, even through that level the congestion is likely to continue through to the 1.1450 levels with increasing offers thereafter through to any approach to the 1.1500 level. downside bids light through to the 1.1250 areas and likely to find stronger bids through to the 1.1200 levels, strong stops likely on a move through the level with the market opening slightly to the 1.1150 area.

 

 

Overnight News

USD:

Lawmakers exploring possible pardon talks involving Michael Cohen WPT

AUD:

Australian Media: GDP per capita heads for a recession BLG

EUR:

Europe’s leaders are aiding Italy’s populists PS

CNY:

Xi Jinping works to stifle dissent amid concerns about China’s economy WSJ

JPY:

Japan inflation barometer points to zero price growth by summer – BBG

 

 

Today’s Data

Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

JPY         Monetary Base Y/Y Feb A 4.60% | C 4.50% | P 4.70%

AUD       TD Securities Inflation M/M Feb A 0.10% | P -0.10%

AUD       Company Operating Profit Q/Q Q4 A 0.80% | C 3.00% | P 1.90% | R 1.20%

AUD       Building Approvals M/M Jan A 2.50% | C 1.50% | P -8.40% | -8.10%

09:30     EUR        Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Mar C -3.1 | P -3.7

09:30     GBP       Construction PMI Feb C 50.5 | P 50.6

10:00     EUR        Eurozone PPI M/M Jan C 0.30% | P -0.80%

10:00     EUR        Eurozone PPI Y/Y Jan C 2.90% | P 3.00%

15:00     USD       Construction Spending M/M Dec C 0.20% | P 0.80%

21:30     AUD       AiG Performance of Service Index Feb P 44.3

 

Weekend News

USD:

Trump says USD too strong in return to criticism of Powell

USD/CNY:

US, China said close to trade deal that may end US tariffs BBG

CAD/USD/CNY:

Canada issues order for Huawei CFO extradition hearings to start

China utterly dissatisfied with Meng extradition, Embassy

China embassy in Canada Meng case political persecution

GBP:

UK’s Attorney General abandons time limit demand on Irish backstop Telegraph

European research group (Brexiteers) demanded a clear and unconditional route out of the backstop

Group didn’t detail how its goal should be achieved, it said the change must be contained in treaty level clause that unambiguously overrides the text of current agreement – NPW

 

Harry Hindsight

  • GBP: A slow run through to the NYK session with the market opening around the 1.3260 level and a slow steady range through the Asian session ranging between the 1.3255-65 areas and finally dipping a little on the move into the grey hours, the move into the London session saw the market dropping below the 1.3250 level and then ranging for several hours into the 1.3230-50, early NYK saw the market dip through to the 1.3220 level and for a period a slightly wider range before rising through to the 1.3285 areas, weaker US numbers did nothing for the market and the Cable dropped back through to the 1.3220 level for the end of London finally breaking through and dipping to the 1.3175 levels bouncing weakly above the 1.3200 level for the close.
  • JPY: A slow steady climb through the day, with the market opening around the 111.40 level and initially dipping into the Tokyo opening to make the lows in the lower 111.30’s before rising back through to the 111.45 areas and then quickly rising from the Tokyo fix through to the 111.60 level, and continuing a slow move through to the 111.75 areas and pausing and ranging through to the grey hours holding in the area, buying through the grey hours saw the market pushing the 111.80 level for the move into the London session and a steady move towards the 112.00 level, strong offers sent the market back to the 111.80 level for a quiet range through to NYK and while early numbers sent the market lower with poor spending numbers in particular the market recover from the 111.70 level and another steady push for the 112.00 level testing through the level late in the session, the high close to 112.08 saw a slow drift to the close and slipping back below the figure.
  • AUD: Very quiet range through to the London session, ranging around the 0.7095 levels with early highs testing towards the 0.7110 level and dipping slightly through the 0.7090 area through to London, the market found buyers moving in and the market pushed steadily through to the 0.7120 areas before reversing to the 0.7100 level into the NYK session, a brief spike to the 0.7120 level was quickly turned and the market fell back to the 0.7080 level and a slow range just below that level to the close.
  • EUR: Holding through the Asian session around the 1.1370 opening levels dipping to the 1.1365 level and rising through to the 1.1375 areas and the move into the grey hours saw the market dropping to the 1.1360 level before moving into the London session and mixed European numbers giving the market the low for the day on a test into the low 1.1350’s before starting a slow steady rise through to the NYK session testing to the 1.1390 level and holding quietly until the US numbers sparked a quick move through the 1.1400 level and just as quickly dipping back to the 1.1380 and slowly continuing through the end of London to test towards the lows again and a limited bounce.

 

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

AUD       AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index Feb A 54 | P 52.5

NZD       Building Permits M/M Jan A 16.50% | P 5.10% | R 5.40%

NZD       Terms of Trade Index Q/Q Q4 A -3.00% | C -1.00% | P -0.30% | R -0.10%

JPY         Jobless Rate Jan A 2.50% | C 2.40% | P 2.40%

JPY         Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Feb A 1.10% | C 1.00% | P 1.10%

JPY         Capital Spending Q4 A 5.70% | C 4.50% | P 4.50%

JPY         PMI Manufacturing Feb (F) A 48.9 | C 48.5 | P 48.5

CNY        Caixin PMI Manufacturing Feb A 49.9 | C 48.7 | P 48.3

JPY         Consumer Confidence Feb A 41.5 | C 41.6 | P 41.9

EUR        German Retail Sales M/M Jan A 3.30% | C 1.90% | P -4.30%

CHF        Retail Sales Real Y/Y Jan A -0.40% | C 0.40% | P -0.30% | R -0.20%

CHF        PMI Manufacturing Feb A 55.4 | C 53.6 | P 54.3

EUR        Italy Manufacturing PMI Feb A 47.7 | C 47 | P 47.8

EUR        France Manufacturing PMI Feb (F) A 51.5 | C 51.4 | P 51.4

EUR        Germany Manufacturing PMI Feb (F) A 47.6 | C 47.6 | P 47.6

EUR        German Unemployment Change Feb A -21K | C -5K | P -2K

EUR        German Unemployment Claims Rate Feb A 5.00% | C 5.00% | P 5.00%

EUR        Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Feb (F) A 49.3 | C 49.2 | P 49.2

GBP       Mortgage Approvals Jan A 67K | C 63K | P 64K

GBP       Money Supply M4 M/M Jan A 0.20% | C 0.30% | P 0.40%

GBP       PMI Manufacturing Feb A 52 | C 52 | P 52.8

EUR        Eurozone Unemployment Rate Jan A 7.80% | C 7.90% | P 7.90% | R 7.80%

EUR        Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Feb A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.40%

EUR        Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Feb (A) A 1.00% | C 1.10% | P 1.10%

CAD       GDP M/M Dec A -0.10% | C 0.00% | P -0.10%

USD       Personal Income Dec A 1.00% | C 0.30% | P 0.20% | R 0.30%

USD       Personal Spending Dec A -0.50% | C 0.10% | P 0.40% | R 0.60%

USD       PCE Deflator M/M Dec A 0.10% | C 0.00% | P 0.10% | R 0.00%

USD       PCE Deflator Y/Y Dec A 1.70% | C 1.70% | P 1.80%

USD       PCE Core M/M Dec A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.10% | R 0.20%

USD       PCE Core Y/Y Dec A 1.90% | C 1.90% | P 1.90%

CAD       Manufacturing PMI Feb A 52.6 | P 53

USD       Manufacturing PMI Feb (F) A 53 | C 53.7 | P 53.7

USD       ISM Manufacturing Feb A 54.2 | C 56 | P 56.6

USD       ISM Prices Paid Feb A 49.4 | C 52 | P 49.6

USD       ISM Employment Feb A 52.3 | P 55.5

USD       U. of Mich. Sentiment Feb (F) A 93.8 | C 95.8 | P 95.5

 

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

 

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.

Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

 

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.