Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 111.744 | EURUSD 1.1340 | AUDUSD 0.70922 | NZDUSD 0.68087 | USDCAD 1.33051 | USDCHF 0.9990 | GBPUSD 1.3181 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13406 | 1.13249
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.947 | 111726
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31836 | 1.31502
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99995 | 0.99827
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70975 | 0.70663
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33289 | 1.33033
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.68285 | 0.67882
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13308 | 1.13233
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.86127 | 0.86015
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 126.884 | 126.657
For Today
- GBP: Opening quietly around the 1.3180 areas the market moved sideways into the Tokyo session and then a slow drift through to the RBA decision and the cable increasing its losses through to the 1.3150 level before finding sufficient support to hold the market around the 1.3160 level, downside congestion just through the 1.3150 level and likely to continue with increasing size into the 1.3100 level and through the level with increasing support on any move towards the 1.3050 levels with limited bids through to the 1.3000 level. Topside offers light through the 1.3200 areas with likely weak stops on a push through and stronger offers then appearing on a move to the 1.3220-40 levels.
- JPY: Moving through into the Tokyo session the market lifted away from the opening 111.70 areas and pushing through to range around the 111.85 area testing towards the 111.95 level and moving into the grey hours holding the 111.90 area in quiet trading, topside offers into the 112.20 areas with light congestion likely with limited congestion continuing higher and that stronger congestion then continuing through the 112.50 areas. Downside bids light back through the 111.00 levels with stronger congestion into the 110.80 levels and likely to continue deep into the 110.40 before weakness appears, weak stops on a move through and limited congestion into the 110.00 level.
- AUD: Another limited day with RBA announcement with some limited movement around the release and the market peaking a couple of times with the market testing just through the 0.7095 level and then dipping quickly back to the 0.7075 levels and easing from there to the 0.7068 level and the base for the session, holding for the most part around the 0.7075 level through to the grey hours, topside offers limited through to the 0.7120 level and some congestive come sentimental offers in the area before weak offers through to the 0.7150 level and stronger congestion likely to start appearing on any move through to the 0.7200 levels, downside bids light through to the 0.7050 area before stronger congestion starts to appear and continuing through to the 70 cents levels.
- EUR: A slow drift from the opening 1.1340 areas, limited at first then dipping through the 1.1330 level a little quicker and holding just below the level for the move into the grey hours, topside congestion reappears through to the 1.1440 areas with stronger offers likely to through to the 1.1460 level, however, even through that level the congestion is likely to continue through to the 1.1450 levels with increasing offers thereafter through to any approach to the 1.1500 level. downside bids light through to the 1.1250 areas and likely to find stronger bids through to the 1.1200 levels, strong stops likely on a move through the level with the market opening slightly to the 1.1150 area.
Overnight News
CNY:
China signals loosening of property curbs as Xi’s mantra omitted NS2
China lowers economic growth target to range of 6-6.5%
Budget deficit target 2019 of 2.76T Yuan
Plans 2T Yuan of tax cuts in 2019
Fiscal spending to rise 6.5% YoY
CNY/USD:
China Commerce Minister Zhong Shan says China/US trade negotiations should be based on the principle of mutual respect and equality
Zhong: China/US trade talks have been difficult
Zhong: China/US trade talks difficult due to differences in culture, stage of economic development
Zhong: China/US trade talks have been very short even after extensions
Zhong: China/US should seek common grounds while setting aside differences if they want to reach consensus
Zhong: Some areas in trade talks have achieved a breakthrough
Zhong: Working teams from both sides are talking right now
Zhong: China can reach a trade deal, it would benefit economies of both countries and global economy
Zhong: US and China should meet each other halfway if they want to reach a deal
AUD:
Australia 4Q net exports cut 0.2% pts from GDP
No change on Cash rate
Deteriorating economy to hit mortgage arrears S&P
USD/INR:
Trump penalizes India on trade over lack of equal market access BBG
USD:
House Democrats open sweeping corruption probe into Trump’s world Politico
GBP:
PM May warned she must whip MP’s to stop them taking no deal Brexit off table
CNY/CAD:
China accuses Canadians of spying amid Huawei Extradition case BBG
EUR:
Italy in the danger zone alarms Europe a year after vote BBG
Europe’s slowdown is worse than investors imagined – RTRS
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â AiG Performance of Service Index Feb A 44.5 | P 44.3
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ANZ Commodity Price Feb A 2.80% | P 2.10% | R 2.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Feb A -0.10% | C 0.10% | P 1.80%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (AUD) Q4 A -7.2B | C -9.1B | P -10.7B | R -10.8B
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Caixin China PMI Services Feb A 51.1 | C 53.5 | P 53.6
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Rate Decision A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%
07:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Feb C 0.40% | P -0.30%
07:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Feb C 0.60% | P 0.60%
08:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Services PMI Feb C 49.5 | P 49.7
08:50Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Feb (F) C 49.8 | P 49.8
08:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Feb (F) C 55.1 | P 55.1
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Feb (F) C 52.3 | P 52.3
09:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Feb C 50 | P 50.1
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Jan C 1.30% | P -1.60%
14:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Feb (F) C 56.2 | P 56.2
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite Feb C 57.3 | P 56.7
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales Dec C 590K | P 657K
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening around the 1.3245 level the market drifted through to the Tokyo session holding the 1.3230 levels and ranging through to the London session in a tight range, the move into the London session saw early buyers off the 1.3225 level to push lightly to above the 1.3255 areas to make the highs of the day with a dip in construction limiting the gains and reversing from those highs, the market dropped in a steady move through to the NYK session with the gap on the charts filled triggering light stops on the way through to the 1.3180 level and although early NYK did try a brief rally through to the 1.3220 areas the market quickly pounced on the move and the move back to the downside went a little deeper to the 1.3170 before quietly ranging to the close.
- JPY: Apart from the opening where the market opened a little lower and tested through to the 111.75 areas before early Tokyo took the market back higher and a gradual climb to the 112.00 areas filling the small gap on the charts, the market ranged through to the grey hours and dipped through the 111.95 level on the opening in London and the market drifted through early morning holding around the 111.85 areas, early NYK saw the market rise a little but was never convincing on the move towards the 112.00 areas and held only until the release of the construction spending number and the USD dropping quickly back to the 111.65 level before recovering into a long run to the close.
- AUD: A reasonably quiet range throughout the day, with the market gapping open around the 0.7106 levels the highs of the day holding around the 71 cents levels through to the Tokyo session and a dip through to the 0.7080 level thus filling the gap on the charts and ranging around the 0.7080 areas through the day with minor pushes above the 0.7090 level and just below of the 0.7080 areas before finish the day around the 0.7090.
- EUR: Opening a touch higher and light spike just above the 1.1380 area before starting a slow drift through the Asian session and into the grey hour testing the 1.1360 area lows. Grey hours saw a limited rise towards the 1.1370 areas before dropping steadily through the early part of the morning to test below the 1.1340 level and ranging around that level deep into the NYK session dipping a little on the weak construction number and making the lows just through the 1.1310 area before recovering slowly through to the close around the 1.1340 level.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Monetary Base Y/Y Feb A 4.60% | C 4.50% | P 4.70%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â TD Securities Inflation M/M Feb A 0.10% | P -0.10%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Company Operating Profit Q/Q Q4 A 0.80% | C 3.00% | P 1.90% | R 1.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Approvals M/M Jan A 2.50% | C 1.50% | P -8.40% | -8.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Mar A -2.2 | C -3.1 | P -3.7
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction PMI Feb A 49.5 | C 50.5 | P 50.6
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI M/M Jan A 0.40% | C 0.30% | P -0.80%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI Y/Y Jan A 3.00% | C 2.90% | P 3.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Spending M/M Dec A -0.60% | C 0.20% | P 0.80%
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