Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 111.586 | EURUSD 1.11935 | AUDUSD 0.70148 | NZDUSD 0.6783 | USDCAD 1.34556 | USDCHF 1.01138 | GBPUSD 1.30836 |
LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT
                               Highs | Lows
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.12041 | 1.11851
USDJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 111.651 | 111.047
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30998 | 1.30783
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.01179 | 1.01011
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70339 | 0.70038
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.34614 | 1.34442
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.67708 | 0.67516
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.13231 | 1.13111
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.85579 | 0.85467
EURJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 125.025 | 124.37
For Today
- GBP: A very quiet session overall with the Cable slowly rising from the 1.3085 areas and testing in a late push to the 1.3100 area before drifting back to the 1.3090 level for the move into the grey hours, Downside congestion through the 1.3050 level and likely to increase on any attempt to the 1.3000 area with some weak stops likely on a move through the level before stronger bids start to appear again into the 1.2950 areas, mixed interest likely on a dip through the level and continuing through to the 1.2900 and an old trendline likely to support any further dips not withstanding Brexit chatter, topside offers light through to the 1.3100 level and likely to be weak stops on a move through the level, congestion around the 1.3150 level is likely to slow the market however, any push through will again open the chance of testing the 1.3200 levels and stronger stops.
- JPY: Safe haven type flows with margin issues along the way saw the USDJPY slipping from the initial highs just above the 111.65 area, early Tokyo saw the market dipping through to the 111.50 level and after a few hours moving again pausing every 10 pips before continuing on the dip and testing through to the grey hours holding just above the 111.10 levels. Downside congestion likely on a move through the 111.00 areas and likely to run to stronger bids into the 110.50 areas before some light stops appear, further congestion is likely to quickly appear on a move through to the 110.00 level and further strong bids.
- AUD: The Oz made a small run higher in early trading pushing through the 0.7025 area before AUDJPY selling moved in on the opening in Tokyo to test back to the 0.7010 areas, the Tokyo selling ran its course and the market again reversed this time pushing to the 0.7028 level with some mild choppy moves through to late in the session before again probing the downside through to the 0.7005 area as the AUDJPY selling again forced the Oz lower. Downside bids thinned out to the 70 cents level however, they could continue through to the 0.6980 level before weakness appears and the possibility of stops appearing and the downside then relying on sentimental buying around the 50/00 areas, 0.6950 area is likely to be a strong level if the market does not run too strongly and a repeat through to the 0.6900 level where bids should slow any descent.
- EUR: A very quiet session for the Euro with the market unable to fully push back through the 1.1200 areas after early sellers pushed to the 1.1185 level and holding through to the grey hours, downside congestion through to the 1.1150 areas and likely to be a little stronger a break through the 1.1140 level could possibly open up a further move through to the 1.1080 level with limited congestion through the level. topside offers light through to the 1.1200 areas with weak stop likely on a move through to the 1.1220 areas before limited offers allow the market to push to the 1.1250 areas and possibly stronger offers.
Overnight News
AUD:
MP’s hunt fresh pound of flesh from CBA AFR
CNY:
China stocks fall most in 2019 as rare sell rating stuns traders
8 Years of errors in China GDP data study finds GDP data inflated – SMP
CNY/USD:
Cowen sees China hedges pushed out to April with no trade deal BBG
Chinese officials becoming wary of quick trade deal – NYT
CNY/AUD:
How Chinese exodus is exacerbating Australia’s property slump BBG
EUR/USD:
Malmstrom: US shouldn’t react to China with duties on EU
Malmstrom: We sure hope US doesn’t impose tariffs on cars
Malmstrom: EU hasn’t seen auto tariff report given to Trump
Malmstrom: Car tariffs would harm EU/US global economies
Malmstrom: EU would have to retaliate against US car tariffs
Malmstrom: Tariffs aren’t making us richer in any way
Malmstrom: WTO is in big need of reform
EUR;
Some ECB officials are said to doubt 2019 outlook even after cut
EU is said to make new offer to UK on Brexit backstop
EU is said to await UK response on new Brexit offer
EU Brexit offer is said to fall short of what UK demanded – BBG
CAD:
BoC of Canada sees longer economic detour than expected – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Sales Q/Q Q4 A -0.50% | P 2.00% | R 1.80%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Overall Household Spending Y/Y Jan A 2.00% | C -0.60% | P 0.10%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q4 (F) A 0.50% | C 0.40% | P 0.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Deflator Y/Y Q4 (F) A -0.30% | C -0.30% | P -0.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current Account Total (JPY) Jan (P) A 1.8.T | C 1.38T | P 1.56T | R 1.63T
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (USD) Feb A 4.12B | C 27.15B | P 39.16B
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CNY) Feb A 34.4B | C 122.0B | P 271.2B
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Factory Orders M/M Jan C 0.50% | P -1.60%
13:15Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Feb C 203K | P 208K
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Change in Employment Feb C -2.5K | P 66.8K
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Feb C 5.80% | P 5.80%
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization Rate Q4 C 82.10% | P 82.60%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Change in Non-farm Payrolls Feb C 185K | P 304K
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Feb C 3.90% | P 4.00%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Average Hourly Earnings M/M Feb C 0.30% | P 0.10%
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits Jan C 1.29M | P 1.33M
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Jan C 1.18M | P 1.08M
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Quiet Asian session with the Euro moving to the highs on the move into the Tokyo session and testing the 1.3180 areas and holding in a narrow range through to the grey hours before dipping through to the London opening testing the 1.3160 levels, London tried a limited rise before running slowly lower again and the market moving through to the NYK session and the descent increasing dropping quickly through to the ECB decision testing the 1.3115 levels, with better numbers from the US the USD pushed higher and the Euro settled gradually tested through the 1.3100 level with several spikes higher as profit taking moved in after the failure to follow through before slipping through to the 1.3070 area for a long run to the close.
- JPY: USDJPY initially dipped from the opening slipping from the 111.75 levels through to the 111.60 level before starting a slow steady climb through to the grey hours and the 111.80 area , the move into the London session saw a similar pattern and only once the NYK session did the market test through to the highs and that only just pushing to the 111.85 area before the US numbers started to impact the market and dropped back to the 111.60 levels and a slow dip to the 111.50 level and then ranging through to the close holding in a tight range around the 111.60 level.
- AUD: A slow but steady rise through into early Tokyo pushing off the early low close to the 0.7020 areas to push just beyond the 0.7050 and the high of the day, the market then ranged through into early morning in London holding the highs with only a minor dip through the 0.7040 level into the opening, the move into the NYK session saw the USD rising from the opening releases and the Oz slowly drift through the session and showing a quick test on the break of the 0.7020 level to push towards 0.7005 before recovering slightly for the close.
- EUR: Opening quietly the market ran through to the NYK session holding in a narrow range with early Tokyo taking the market light through the 1.1315 level before a slow drift through to the London session pressing towards the 1.3000 level the move to NYK saw the market rising slowly to push to the 1.1320 level and then the ECB announcement saw the Euro in full flight and a quick move through the 1.1280 level and continuing at a slower rate to the 1.1235 level before finding a brief spark of support however, the market eventually continued the dip and testing through to the 1.1180 levels before rising slightly for the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership results
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â AiG Performance of Construction Index Feb A 43.8 | P 43.1
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) Jan A 4.55B | C 2.90B | P 3.68B | R 3.77B
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Jan A 0.10% | C 0.30% | P -0.40%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Leading Index CI Jan (P) A 95.9 | C 96 | P 97.5
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Feb A 2.40% | C 2.40% | P 2.40%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Feb A 739B | P 741B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Employment Q/Q Q4 (F) A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Employment Y/Y Q4 (F) A 1.10% | C 1.20% | P 1.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q4 (F) A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Feb A 117.20% | P 18.70%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Press Conference
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Jan A -5.50% | C -1.50% | P 6.00% | R 6.40%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 02) A 223K | C 225K | P 225K | R 226K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Nonfarm Productivity Q4 (F) A 1.90% | C 1.60% | P 2.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unit Labour Costs Q4 (F) A 2.00% | C 1.70% | P 0.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A -149B | C -141B | P -166B
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